Guilty scientists.. or not?

[bojan]

It seems we are slowly accepting the middle-age attitude towards scientists.. or is this just a matter of greater responsibility for their job in relation to the the community paying for it?

http://www.businessinsider.com/itali...prison-2012-10
http://www.nature.com/news/2011/1109...l/477264a.html

[ZeroID (Brent)]

Earthquake prediction is an inexact science at best.
Another article I read said Italy has scores of swarm earthquakes on an ongoing basis. Picking which one is the precursor to something bigger would be impossible.
It's the same as the people over here asking when will the Christchurch aftershocks stop ....... they are up to over 1300 now ... and still counting
Research and knowledge is dangerous apparently

[AndrewJ]

Just heard about this on the midday news.
It does make you wonder how long before the bored ambulance chasers in the legal system will take science back to the dark ages.
And my funny take on this process of "dumbing down" of science
is
If you survived, you thank your god for protecting you,
but if you are injured of killed, you get a lawyer and sue the scientists.
Who would bother to put out information anymore?????

Andrew

[jjjnettie (Jeanette)]

I knew this hearing was coming up and hoped that common sense would prevail.
The repercussions of this will affect any predictions of natural phenomena. The weather reports on radio and tv will have to change, every evening they will have to warn of possible tornado's, thunderstorms, blizzards and heat waves.
Seismologists will have to warn the public every day of a possible mag 9 earthquake. The people are going to be in a constant state of panic. And then I suppose they will sue them for the stress they are causing.
It's a war against science.
The irrationality of this whole situation is doing my head in.

[AstralTraveller (David)]

Originally Posted by jjjnettie

..... The weather reports on radio and tv will have to change, every evening they will have to warn of possible tornado's, thunderstorms, blizzards and heat waves.
Seismologists will have to warn the public every day of a possible mag 9 earthquake.....

"Wolf, wolf, wolf ... I said wol.. oh dear another one eaten."

From this distance the verdict looks like a major deposit of organic fertilizer.

[bojan]

Well, lawyers will definitely be VERY busy.. (and rich).

[blink138 (Pat)]

the fact is the scientists basically said the people would DEFFINATELY be safe!
i saw a man on the news that lost his whole family
he said for many decades when the "grumblings" came that the whole village would sleep outside where they were for some reason safe
the scientists said that it was not necessary to sleep outside as the pressure was just being released which was a good thing!
the scientists either directly said it was going to be safe or the village was given that impression
pat

[Davi5678 (Dave)]

The Italian justice system isn't a exactly a model of fairness and equity, much like their political system. This won't have global repercussions for scientists.

[blink138 (Pat)]

Originally Posted by Davi5678

The Italian justice system isn't a exactly a model of fairness and equity, much like their political system. This won't have global repercussions for scientists.

i think on the contrary! this may just set a precedent, as the very people we trust to make life or death decisions will become accountable.
i mean, how can a seismologist say that an event will deffinately not happen.
the whole world knows that at best seismological activity seems to be governed by chaos.... somebody just needs to remind seismologists!
i think this is going to be bad...... but only for the science of seismology
pat

[Colin_Fraser]

It's not about predicting earthquakes!
Excerpts the articles in the links provided in the original post.

that the trial has nothing to do with the ability to predict earthquakes, and everything to do with the failure of government-appointed scientists serving on an advisory panel to adequately evaluate, and then communicate, the potential risk to the local population.

and the scientists

provided "incomplete, imprecise, and contradictory information"

and

The basis of the charges is not that they didn't predict the earthquake. As functionaries of the state, they had certain duties imposed by law: to evaluate and characterize the risks that were present in L'Aquila." Part of that risk assessment, he says, should have included the density of the urban population and the known fragility of many ancient buildings in the city centre. "They were obligated to evaluate the degree of risk given all these factors," he says, "and they did not."

Clearly not doing the job entrusted to them.

[TrevorW]

Next we will be blaming the meteorologists for not getting the weather right

"hey man, I'm going to sue you for anxiety and stress as a result of my picnic being ruined by rain when you said it was going to be fine"

Earthquakes are as unpredictable as the weather IMO

[andyc (Andy)]

Well, Italy has just lost itself any prospect of decent monitoring of geophysical hazards for the foreseeable future. Residents of Naples and Catania and elsewhere can settle down to having stuff all understanding of the potential risks they are living under. They may as well ask the lawyers what the state of Vesuvius or Etna is, as any decent geologist or geophysicist is going to be fleeing from Italian research. A massive step backwards.

People can pretend they can pass the buck when things go bad, but it will be a whole lot worse if they wilfully neglect the best understanding we have of natural systems, be they climate, weather or geophysics. Medieval-scale understanding, here we come.

[bojan]

Originally Posted by Colin_Fraser

It's not about predicting earthquakes!
Excerpts the articles in the links provided in the original post.
.... Clearly not doing the job entrusted to them.

Not necessarily...
usually, scientists offer the information at their hand, it is up to local government officials to do something with it.
To my understanding of the situation as presented in articles, the correct information was where their responsibility stopped, and someone else was supposed to take over.

BTW, the pressure from community (and establishment - this is visible from comments) to "punish" them was huge.. so it really looks like as lynch, approved and executed by court.

[multiweb (Marc)]

That's nuts. This is only going to achieve on thing. No kid's going to want to be learning for a scientific career. Too much liability. In the long run it will be disastrous. This reminds me of a discussion I had with a surgeon telling me how high insurance premiums were because of lawsuits. He said that there was already a lack of skilled specialists in his field because new students would go for lower risk jobs and qualifications. As a result there was no renewal and a lack of competent people in his field. Everyone wants to be a dentist. More money and no hassle.

[Larryp (Laurie)]

Originally Posted by multiweb

That's nuts. This is only going to achieve on thing. No kid's going to want to be learning for a scientific career. Too much liability. In the long run it will be disastrous. This reminds me of a discussion I had with a surgeon telling me how high insurance premiums were because of lawsuits. He said that there was already a lack of skilled specialists in his field because new students would go for lower risk jobs and qualifications. As a result there was no renewal and a lack of competent people in his field. Everyone wants to be a dentist. More money and no hassle.

Everyone wants to be a dentist? More money and no hassle? I don't think so! I have been a dentist for 45 years, and in that time I have seen professional indemnity insurance rise from a minimal amount to a significant percentage of my income. Dentists have the same problems with patients as medicos do. We live in a very litigation oriented society, spurred on by a legal profession hell bent on lining its pockets at the expense of other professions-just look at their advertisements offering to sue someone on your behalf!
I am semi-retired now and in a couple of years I will be fully retired-thankfully! Would I become a dentist if I was starting a career again?-Hell,no! Too much legal crap and government interference.
And no, I have never been sued!

[bojan]

Originally Posted by multiweb

That's nuts...... Everyone wants to be a dentist. More money and no hassle.

I think everyone wants to be a lawyer

[Irish stargazer (John)]

Lets sue all the astrologers for getting my horoscope wrong. Hell, I paid money for that book and they didn't get one thing right
In ancient times they used to execute astrologers for getting it wrong, now it will be scientists. Back to the days of smallpox, fortune tellers and fundamentalism.
I sincerely hope this verdict is overturned. They didn't jail the politicians and their economists that botched up the economy in Europe even when they told us all was well.

[AndrewJ]

I think a lot of it also comes down to the cost of acting/not acting on the data provided. I agree with Bojan that its not the scientists job, but the politicians.
They are the ones paid to look at all the data ( both scientific and sociological ) and make balanced decisions based on all available information.
Just look at Fukushima as a recent example.
Scientists said the risk of a certain magnitude earthquake needed to be taken into account in the design, but it sounds like it didnt meet with the cost benefit analysis required to put the reactors into "profitable" operation.
As such, they were designed "as a system" to a lesser specification and the worst case scenario happened.

The scientists are only one part of the chain, but seem to be the first to be strung up.

Andrew

[JB80 (Jarrod)]

Originally Posted by TrevorW

Next we will be blaming the meteorologists for not getting the weather right

Here in Belgium they were going to do just that, although from as far as I can tell their issue was more that they didn't like the predictions that were made despite them being pretty much spot on.

[Davi5678 (Dave)]

There are still two appeals processes to go through and they won't be jailed during that. It will likely take years. Hopefully at some point common sense will prevail.
Italy's political and judicial system is fairly corrupt and this is a just an attempt to create a scape goat, most likely by the local government for failing to take action sooner.
The global reaction in the media is all the evidence you need to see this won't become a precedent to attack science and scientists around the world.