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  #1  
Old 01-02-2011, 07:56 AM
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TC Yasi

All you people in the north be careful and safe during this new threat.

Adrian
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Old 01-02-2011, 08:42 AM
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I honestly can't comprehend the size of that storm.
Take care and stay safe.
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  #3  
Old 01-02-2011, 09:19 AM
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Stay Safe you people up there , we are thinking of you.
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  #4  
Old 01-02-2011, 09:26 AM
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I heard on the news that it's now rated as a category 4.

Take care up there
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  #5  
Old 01-02-2011, 09:35 AM
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What do you folk up there do when something like this is approaching ?
(Just wondering).

I think I'd be taking advantage of a big hole in the ground somewhere !
.. or spending some accumulated holiday time, somewhere down south !

Take care.

Cheers
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  #6  
Old 01-02-2011, 09:38 AM
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erick (Eric)
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Stay safe! Tie those scopes down!

And one day you'll be telling your grandchildren where you were and what happened when the "Big One" hit!
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  #7  
Old 01-02-2011, 09:51 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CraigS View Post
What do you folk up there do when something like this is approaching ?
(Just wondering).

I think I'd be taking advantage of a big hole in the ground somewhere !
.. or spending some accumulated holiday time, somewhere down south !

Take care.

Cheers
Talking from experience, the usual thing is to fill your esky with beer and your cupboards and fridge with food.
Then call your mates and organise a Cyclone party.

I've heard stories of people building cyclone shelters in their houses, using cartons of beer as building blocks.

One hopes that sense will prevail in this instance.
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  #8  
Old 01-02-2011, 10:28 AM
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This is going to fun, Its another Larry.... #@$%

right in the firing line here I'm afraid...
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  #9  
Old 01-02-2011, 11:14 AM
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Good luck!

If the "girl-child" that is La Niņa were given a name this year, it may well end
up being "Yasi".

The sheer size of the cyclone on the current satellite images together with
the Bureau warnings are sobering.
Satellite loop - http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/satell...quadrant.shtml
Projected track - http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml
Advice - http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDQP0005.txt

We wish those in the path good luck and hope that your preparations are going smoothly.
Checklist - http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/about/checklist.shtml
I am sure many of us wish we could be there to lend a hand.
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  #10  
Old 01-02-2011, 11:31 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shawn View Post
right in the firing line here I'm afraid...
The projected track does not look for Ravenshoe. Good luck!
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  #11  
Old 01-02-2011, 11:41 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shawn View Post
This is going to fun, Its another Larry.... #@$%

right in the firing line here I'm afraid...
Hi Shawn Mate, I hope all things go well with you, my thoughts go out to you, please stay safe
Cheers
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  #12  
Old 01-02-2011, 11:43 AM
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renormalised (Carl)
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The reason why the track has been modified is that the storm has traveled a bit further west than they thought it would before it turns in. It's still expected to turn SW as there is an upper level ridge moving in from the west. That'll push the anticyclone (high pressure system) at the upper levels above the storm to the south and hence the storm will turn in that direction. I've heard some people say Townsville may have dodged a bullet. In no way, shape or form has that happened. Everywhere from Cairns, south to at least Mackay had better watch out as this storm is so large you could still be 400kms or more from the centre of the storm and still get hammered.
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  #13  
Old 01-02-2011, 01:47 PM
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Hi All,
I lived up there years ago. Cyclone parties used to be the go.
Sometimes no one turned up.

This Yasi Storm worries me. I have never seen one as big as this one.
It means that its intensity is wider from the centre. It moves slowly and therefore over any given point in its path will be subjected to gale force winds and rain for a much longer period.

Many Nth Qlders would not get out of bed for a medium cat 2 cyclone. Yasi will be worrying everyone all night or all day long.

Cat 2 = trees blow down, old roofing lifts off.
Cat 3 = Damage to houses, trees. Take cover
Cat 4 = Can often take the house.

Get into shelter, take your astro gear & radio with you. Its going to be a long scary ride. I hope it starts dissipating before it hits, becuase this will cause a lot of damage.

Cheers
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  #14  
Old 01-02-2011, 02:04 PM
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Actually, Cyclone Justin in '98 was physically a larger storm (about 25% larger) but nowhere near as intense.

I only hope it doesn't intensify to TC Mahina's (1899, Bathurst Bay) strength. That had a 13-15 metre storm surge and sustained 325km/hr winds. It's the most powerful storm ever recorded in living memory along the east coast.

That's why they call Cat 5 "Wrath of God".
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  #15  
Old 01-02-2011, 02:11 PM
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahina_Cyclone_of_1899

Just for some perspective, here's some info on Cyclone Tip, the biggest cyclone ever recorded.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Tip

Last edited by jjjnettie; 01-02-2011 at 02:29 PM.
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  #16  
Old 01-02-2011, 02:30 PM
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Hi Carl,
Yes you are correct. How I am rating Yasi is:

Justin reached Cat 4 but it was only a cat 2 at landfall. Its destructive power was concentrated to around 50 - 80 Kms from the eye wall.

With Yasi the destructive winds are 3-4 times that distance. The further from the eye wall the lower the wind speed. However within the 50-80klms from the eye wall Yasi will take houses. Justin did not have that power.

That un named cyclone of 1899 was very powerful. I know very little about it and Yasi is shaping up to rival it. Becuase a powerful cyclone hit in 1899 there was not the population nor the number of buidings that there are today. Therefore it hardly rates as a very destructive cyclone.
Although its power is greater than most recorded.

If it struck today; I would not like to think about it.

Cheers
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  #17  
Old 01-02-2011, 02:44 PM
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Justin also hung around for ages....3.5 weeks if I remember correctly.

Mahina killed around 400 people.
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  #18  
Old 01-02-2011, 02:58 PM
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Post

Here...just to gauge the size of this storm, see the piccie. Each one of those grid squares is 120 miles across (2 degrees).

Typhoon Tip in 1979 was around 1380 miles across (2200kms)...this storm is nearly as large!!!.
Attached Thumbnails
Click for full-size image (11P_312330sams.jpg)
135.6 KB122 views
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  #19  
Old 01-02-2011, 03:02 PM
gary
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Hi Carl,

Thanks for the satellite image of Yasi.

There will be some of us that look at that image and think it must be
of the Pinwheel Galaxy, M101!

See http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap030310.html
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  #20  
Old 01-02-2011, 03:57 PM
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Yep, but this "galaxy" has a "10billion solar mass BH" in its centre.
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