They don't have a clue..... - Page 3

mangrovedutch (Dutch) · #41 12-01-2011, 04:41 PM

Good call Carl, I agree. Those crown fires are amazing to watch, but super devastating with its power. We need to accept the way things are today, and do our best in the future. Disasters have been happening for thousands if not millions of years, we can't control the power of nature, we have to accept it and get on with our lives the best we can, no matter how sad the outcomes are.

Regards, Dutch

Alchemy (Clive) · #42 12-01-2011, 04:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by el_draco

... And at what point does individual reponsibility kick in?

I agree people need to accept some responsibility, I live in a wildfire area as listed by local authorities, and have sprinklers etc.... No bunker as there are none that conform to any standards as yet.

Many wise men got together and had a Royal Commision to decide what was sensible regarding the issues, the council have ignored that information. So try haven't got a clue is appropriate.

I realize many of the issues are polarizing, and you are quite entitled to your views regarding these things..... Just not on my property

( peter does pick the contetious ones), it would seem we are just going to disagree on some points.
No matter where you live you will be prone to some form of potential disaster. Even citified folks.

jenchris (Jennifer) · #43 12-01-2011, 04:56 PM

Q100 is worked out from 3D modelling - very little of it except some of the rainfall data is from historical data.
Every home that is designed has to be hydraulically balanced with retention and soakage and tanking.
One of the reasons a lot of developers are shy from investing is the rigmarole to get the DA passed.
Upping housing density is the only way we're going to move forward - and decentralising business is probably the best way to accomplish better ecobalance.

renormalised (Carl) · #44 12-01-2011, 04:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mangrovedutch

It also means that responsibility and common sense, along with sound knowledge needs to be used. Unfortunately, all of that is seriously lacking.

That's an oximoron isn't it LOL. Humans can engineer a lot of things, and sometimes get it right. In Holland in 1954 the dykes burst and halve the country dissappeared under 2 metres of water - an Engineering issue. It is all based on maths and physics of an assumed scenario, and there will be mistakes made. Whivenhoe was build to prevent exactly what is happening now, and the water level is breaking the 74 marks. People are like rabbits (population explosion) and demand to live somewhere. The Gold Coast is a good example with all the island communities - Hope Island is built on a swamp, there are a couple of swamp dozers buried there, because they couldn't be retrieved. I totally agree with your comment, but we can't change what we have now, maybe we can improve somethings - but we will lose the fight against natures powers, we cannot conceive of what it is capable of - we get a glimps every so often. Nothing will change, more and more people will occupy SEQ which means more and more will be affected by what is a normal cycle in Earths history. Millions of dollars will now be thrown into a commision on how to prevent this happening again, which IMHO is a waste of money. We simply cannot stop these things from happening. What is to say that Wivenhoe can hold 200% capacity, do you trust the engineering on the dam wall? I've spend the last 20 years in the Civil Construction game, and I have seen and understand the way storm water systems are build and erosion controls are constructed. I have also seen man hole steel lids blow 10-15 metres into the air, because the Q100 was wrong and the pressure and volume hydrolically was never calculated for. I have lost faith in the pollies and engineers, we are simply not prepared for the worst, and we can't calculate measures to prevent it until we have experienced it. All we can do is model scenarios with the information we have now. We are not done yet......

Regards, Dutch

What's oxymoronic about having knowledge and the common sense to put it to good use. The fact that it's lacking is not an oxymoron. It's an indictment on those we put into authority. And an indictment on the general community for being sucked in by conmen and charlatans.

Mistakes will happen all the time, and you can't plan for the unexpected, however weather patterns such as we're getting now are not unexpected. These are cyclic occurrences and their frequency can be planned for. It may mean planning over extended periods of time, but that's ultimately a political and societal issue and not one of engineering or science. I'm a geologist and also have a very good understanding of climatology. So I have a pretty good idea as to what happens and the history of it all. If you had to wait to experience every climatic event through time in order to figure out how to engineer countermeasures against it, we'd have gone extinct before you even built your first levee. Not only is doing that impractical, it's also decidedly ridiculous. It may mean you have to over engineer something for an event that may not occur for 10000 years, but if the safety of the general public is concerned, then it should be done. It's then ultimately up to the public whether they want to spend the time, effort and expense in doing so.

Look at it this way, with another disaster....an asteroid impact. Now, I have a masters degree in astrophysics as well as being a geologist. So I know a little bit about these things as well (apart from having been an amateur astronomer for a long time as well). We could totally ignore the consequence of an impact from an asteroid with our planet, and for the most part we are. But if one were to hit, we'd be screwed. Yet, you have more chance of being killed by an asteroid impact than you have of dying in a plane crash and only marginally greater chances of being killed in a car crash. Yet nothing, or very little, is being done to look into and try to prevent it, or alleviate its consequences. It may not happening for the next 10000 years, but if a 1km rock hit tomorrow, you could count on 2-3 billion people dying within the first year of the impact. By the time the air cleared and everything went back to normal, we'd probably only be left with a billion people or less on the planet. Which would be great for the planet but an unmitigated disaster for civilisation. We'd be blasted back to the Stone Age because most people don't have the survival skills or knowledge to be able to cope with something like that. Nor do most have the knowledge or skills to reboot any sort of technological society. Most aren't capable of doing it. So we'd for the most part go back to the very basics....again.

Is this something we should invest in to prevent, despite the odds....yes. Should we be doing something about it now....yes. Is it worth it....yes.

Hagar (Doug) · #45 12-01-2011, 05:04 PM

I don't know that any government can be blamed for the flood crisis as it stands today. To say that Wivenhoe dam would prevent a reoccurance of the 74 floods is just political speak. Old Joe was good at that. The real fact is that the construction of such a dam serves a few purposes. 1. Generate electricity, 2. Provide drinking or irrigation water. Both these uses are far from conducive of preventing a flood as they require the dam to be kept as full as possible to maximize the use of the water.
For a dam to be truely used for flood prevention the dams would need to be kept empty. This is never going to happen. Politics and infrastructure needs say fill me up.
The one thing a dam such as Wivenhoe does do is provide a buffer in the event of minor flooding or short high rainfall events.

In this case it is apparent that Wivenhoe has held back a huge amount of water which would have had Brisbane in flood some 2 weeks ago and would have still been in flood today. When you look at a dam like Wivenhoe and try to work out the amount of water which was retained in dead storage over the huge surface area of the lake and the fact that it is currently holding 147.8 % of rated capacity. That is almost half the dams normal capacity used for flood mitigation purposes.

It would be impossible to flood proof any of our capital cities as they are all built on big flood plains. Some mitigation or reduction of risk is possible but thats about it.
It is either a risk we take or we move to higher ground. A hard one for sure.

I feel for everyone in QLD at the moment. Hope you are all safe and well.

el_draco (Rom) · #46 12-01-2011, 05:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alchemy

No bunker as there are none that conform to any standards as yet.

Take a look at "Earth Bag" construction. I'm building one late next year. Great bunker... Doubles as a great wine cellar as well.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alchemy

I realize many of the issues are polarizing, and you are quite entitled to your views regarding these things..... Just not on my property

Alas, Mother Nature does not recognise your Certificate of Title.

renormalised (Carl) · #47 12-01-2011, 05:18 PM

Nothing is foolproof...or flood proof for that matter. And this is not about making things "anything proof". It's about being hoodwinked and lied to when local authorities say they will do something to help alleviate any future occurrences and then pass the buck onto someone else down the line, hoping they don't have to shoulder any responsibility for what might occur or for not putting in measures to get things rolling. If they have the capacity to do something which may help in the future, they have a moral and legal duty to do so, as elected and paid representatives of the people and also to those they delegate the authority, to do the necessary jobs. Instead of trying to be sexy about everything and narrowly focused on the immediate term, they should look to being responsible for their communities and plan for the long term. And that doesn't mean 3 or 4 years. It may mean planning for events which may not occur for 20, 30, 40 years. or at least putting in the proper infrastructure to get the ball rolling quickly if things start to go pear shaped, no matter the length of the time period.

It's then up to the rest of us to approve these things and help implement them.

Tandum (Robin) · #48 12-01-2011, 05:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hagar

Both these uses are far from conducive of preventing a flood as they require the dam to be kept as full as possible to maximize the use of the water.

That dam has a 100% level which is for drinking and a 200% level which is for flood. If it exceeds 200% they can't control the release of captured water. It went from 120% to 175% in 2 days

These flood waters came from the other direction anyway.

renormalised (Carl) · #49 12-01-2011, 05:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by el_draco

Take a look at "Earth Bag" construction. I'm building one late next year. Great bunker... Doubles as a great wine cellar as well.

There you go....at least if it floods or catches fire in Hobart, you'll have something to drink to pass the time waiting for the water to go down or the fire to stop

el_draco (Rom) · #50 12-01-2011, 05:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by renormalised

There you go....at least if it floods or catches fire in Hobart, you'll have something to drink to pass the time waiting for the water to go down or the fire to stop

If there is a flood where I am building, It'll be a final drink I suspect and I will start to believe in a "higher power"...
Altitude: 550m.

Fire is another matter though... couple of million tons of temperate rainforest to burn. but it stays pretty wet.... so I am relying on an earth covered, Earth Bag bunker... and a decent shiraz, or 10...

renormalised (Carl) · #51 12-01-2011, 05:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tandum

That dam has a 100% level which is for drinking and a 200% level which is for flood. If it exceeds 200% they can't control the release of captured water. It went from 120% to 175% in 2 days

These flood waters came from the other direction anyway.

And if the present conditions keep up for any longer and you get a typical NQ downpour, you're in big trouble.

marki · #52 12-01-2011, 05:32 PM

Mother nature is supreme......what a crock of @#$% that is. Wake up folks humans have been out gunning the old girl for thousands of years. Sure she can be a ***** sometimes but we have always managed to go on despite her constant tantrums. Take cyclones for example, the NW of WA gets its fair share of those but what you will find is the buildings are designed to take it. When things got blown away, people looked at what remained standing, worked out why it was still standing and then wrote local building standards which account for these. People in QLD will have to do the same after this devastating flood is over but to suggest they may as well give up and walk away is just plain silly. Peter I agree 100%, the pollies have the power to do something positive, the only question is do they have the guts?

Mark

renormalised (Carl) · #53 12-01-2011, 05:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by el_draco

If there is a flood where I am building, It'll be a final drink I suspect and I will start to believe in a "higher power"... Altitude: 550m.

Fire is another matter though... couple of million tons of temperate rainforest to burn. but it stays pretty wet.... so I am relying on an earth covered, Earth Bag bunker... and a decent shiraz, or 10...

Well....plenty of trees around to build an ark if it ever floods that high

Probably won't burn too well because it's soaked, but at least you can stay "soaked" and unburnt at the same time

renormalised (Carl) · #54 12-01-2011, 05:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by marki

Peter I agree 100%, the pollies have the power to do something positive, the only question is do they have the guts?

Mark

Answer to that Mark is...no.

Alchemy (Clive) · #55 12-01-2011, 05:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by el_draco

Take a look at "Earth Bag" construction. I'm building one late next year. Great bunker... Doubles as a great wine cellar as well.

To be effective it needs to be airtight, I found a website that says it has building commission approval http://www.wildfiresafetybunkers.com...FQ2ApAodcVTyGQ but is it quite Australian Standard... Not sure on that one...

If your bunker is not airtight, there is a potential to asphyxiate if you have a large burn over.

I'd need a permit from the council for any form of such construction, it would be interesting to see how much red tape you have to go through and if I needed to cut down a tree I wouldn't be allowed.

multiweb (Marc) · #56 12-01-2011, 05:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by renormalised

Answer to that Mark is...no.

It's not about guts. I think guts go with responsibility and put your money where you mouth is. Nothing will change until the day the pollies are made accountable for what they say and what they do. If I said or did half what they get away with I or anyone else for that matter would be in jail. And rightly so.

el_draco (Rom) · #57 12-01-2011, 05:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alchemy

I'd need a permit from the council for any form of such construction, it would be interesting to see how much red tape you have to go through and if I needed to cut down a tree I wouldn't be allowed.

Not going to tell them....

el_draco (Rom) · #58 12-01-2011, 05:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by marki

Mother nature is supreme......what a crock of @#$% that is. Wake up folks humans have been out gunning the old girl for thousands of years.

Yes, we know you like to stir the pot Mark, but most of the rest of us are not quite that deluded....

mangrovedutch (Dutch) · #59 12-01-2011, 06:13 PM

Carl, my apologies on the oxymoron statement, just bad humour on my part. I agree with your further statements.
Thinking that we can out-smart nature is ignorance in itself, though. If we could out-smart her, than most disasters in the last few years could have been minimised, in the way of human loss, as well as infrastructure losses. I don't think any of us are going to be around when we have found the solutions to flood, fire, drought and other potential disaster. That would be asking to live in a perfect world, and that is fantasy in itself.
This topic could go on and on, we all have different experiences and opinions. I think that there is one thing we can all agree with, and that is the Australian community spirit and loyalty in times of need. Strangers helping strangers, to the extent of opening their houses to strangers in a less fortunate circumstances. This is what makes me proud to be an Australian. I find it heart warming. When this is all over, we'll go back to flicking the bird to people on the road, because they cut you off. For me, enough said on this subject. For those in need of anything, let us know, and I'm sure something will be done by any of us that are in a position where we can do something to make life a little bit easier in these tough times. That I am sure of.

Regards, Dutch

renormalised (Carl) · #60 12-01-2011, 06:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by multiweb

It's not about guts. I think guts go with responsibility and put your money where you mouth is. Nothing will change until the day the pollies are made accountable for what they say and what they do. If I said or did half what they get away with I or anyone else for that matter would be in jail. And rightly so.

It takes both guts and responsibility, as you sat Marc.

That accountability will only come when the people wake up to the fact that they have been usurped and that we're not being as responsible as citizens as we could be.