More aurora on the way?

BPO · #1 11-09-2014, 04:59 PM

Supposedly an "extreme" solar storm heading our way, maybe hitting tomorrow. The weather has been completely fine day and night for 40+ days straight, so I guess we'll be in for snow from tonight...

Octane (Humayun) · #2 11-09-2014, 05:07 PM

It might reach us tonight.

It's predicted to be one of the fastest CME outbursts ever recorded.

H

Octane (Humayun) · #3 11-09-2014, 05:10 PM

Update, it's due tomorrow evening.

H

Regulus (Trevor) · #4 11-09-2014, 06:38 PM

That's good. Maybe the weather here will clear up before it arrives.

acropolite (Phil) · #5 11-09-2014, 08:39 PM

Bugger, clear as here ATM, hopefully we'll get the same tomorrow night.

tonybarry (Tony) · #6 11-09-2014, 08:51 PM

The following website offers some predictions on aurora australis visibility:-

http://www.aurora-service.net/aurora-forecast/

From this page, it would seem that persons at Sydney latitudes would be best to look around the beginning of nightfall on Friday (0900 UT; 7pm AEST).

The Kp 7 event on the 13th is unfortunately due midmorning (10am).

Regards,
Tony Barry

CapturingTheNight (Greg) · #7 12-09-2014, 05:57 AM

Thanks for that Link Tony. I have not seen that page before and will add it to my other aurora bookmarks. Although I must say that I don't like the last map on that site in relation to visibility based on Kp values. It is very misleading to first time aurora chasers who would look at that and think that the Kp needs to be nine to have a chance of observing it from Victoria for example. If you interpret this map as the Kp needed for the oval to be directly overhead then it makes a little bit more sense. For example when I managed to image a Kp7 event from Mt Buffalo (the second time) the aurora was easily visible to my own eyes but low down on the southern horizon, whereas at times it was basically overhead in southern Tasmania.

tonybarry (Tony) · #8 12-09-2014, 08:27 AM

Hi Greg,

Good to know the Kp isolines are a bit scatty - I have talked with a few people about aurorae in NSW and it seems they have been visible in years gone by, although very rarely.

Unfortunately it seems the weather in Sydney has failed again to co-operate. 100% genuine cloud from horizon to horizon.

Regards,
Tony Barry

graham.hobart (Graham stevens) · #9 12-09-2014, 08:58 AM

Predicted 70% cloud cover in Hobart tonight

ZeroID (Brent) · #10 12-09-2014, 09:26 AM

Predicted solid rain all weekend in NZ...

Guaranteed clouds regardless, I knew I shouldn't bought the new scope ...

graham.hobart (Graham stevens) · #11 12-09-2014, 09:29 AM

Correction- make that 83% cloud in Hobart!!
Still being punished for the SBIG purchases I guess!!

BPO · #12 12-09-2014, 12:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZeroID

Predicted solid rain all weekend in NZ...

Guaranteed clouds regardless, I knew I shouldn't bought the new scope ...

Looks like it could remain clear in the High Country. So far this spring, we've had something like 40 clear days in a row: Hopefully that's going to continue!

Nikolas (Nik) · #13 12-09-2014, 01:49 PM

Bought a c9.25 here last week and been punished ever since

MrB (Simon) · #14 12-09-2014, 01:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tonybarry

Good to know the Kp isolines are a bit scatty

I'm pretty sure they are for overhead visibility, so a Kp9+ for those of us in the west or as north as Sydney.
I've seen Kp5/6 on the horizon from the South West

Paul Haese · #15 12-09-2014, 02:16 PM

KP7 is visible from south Australia on the southern coast. Saw one naked eye last year on June 29. Awesome display. Like a big silver light moving across the horizon, except it was a 2000km wide light.

First front has hit and producing high KP readings. Second front should hit around 6-7 based on the velocity recorded. ACE satellite will tell us what is going on though.

tonybarry (Tony) · #16 12-09-2014, 06:31 PM

If you guys Down South get a look at the aurora, can you flick a short note to IIS please ?

Here in Sydney we'd probably need a Carrington event to see an aurora ... but it's worth looking for it anyway.

Regards,
Tony Barry

Octane (Humayun) · #17 13-09-2014, 09:09 AM

It's putting on a show for out northern hemisphere brethren, right now. Typical.

H

Paul Haese · #18 13-09-2014, 10:16 AM

Clear all night here but not a thing. Some airglow early on but after moon rise there was nothing happening. I got word from Geoff Sims and Geoff Wyatt who we saw earlier in the evening and had flown all the way to SA for the clear skies, told me this morning they saw nothing at all. I feel for them, because they expended both time and money to come to SA and while the weather worked for them, the aurora did not. I had hoped this would be a good show, but that is twice in the last 6 months where an X class flare was supposed to bring a good show and it did not. Maybe tonight there might be something left in the storm to chase.

silv (Annette) · #19 13-09-2014, 11:56 AM

AuroraUK facebook group mostly reports fog or clouds or fog and clouds.
pitty - kp7 started at 2300UTC.

South Island NZ is better tonight, cloud prediction wise.
let's hope for some more actionnnnn.

Oh, and thanks a million for http://www.aurora-service.net/aurora-forecast/ .

I used the european version http://www.aurora-service.eu/aurora-forecast/ up to today. But now they filter by IP, it seems and I get a "403 forbidden".

I enjoy this double event tremendously. No matter the clouds over NZ. makes it all the more emotional.

christian.ckr (Christian) · #20 15-09-2014, 12:04 PM

I drove down to Phillip Island on Saturday night where the aurora service website predicted KP 5-6 but the current conditions at the time showed only 2.67 but it was cloudy anyway.

While I was doing some research I stumbled across this timelapse taken in Kiama, NSW earlier this year and was a little shocked that this was possible only an hour or so outside of Sydney, it was the first time I had seen it so apologies if it is common knowledge but I was quite blown away

http://vimeo.com/87324063