SEQ expecting flooding....again

[jjjnettie (Jeanette)]

Cut and Pasted from BOM.


Synoptic Situation: An upper low is currently developing over southeast
Queensland, and is expected to move slowly westwards during the next 48 hours. A surface trough off the southern Queensland coast is expected to deepen and move westwards onto the coast late Friday.

Heavy rain which may lead to flash flooding is expected to develop late Friday
and continue through Saturday morning in the following forecast districts:
- Southeast Coast;
- Wide Bay and Burnett east of Hervey Bay to Kingaroy;
- far eastern parts of the Darling Downs and Granite Belt

24 hour rainfall totals of 100 to 150 mm are likely about the coast and nearby
ranges, with isolated rainfall totals in excess of 200mm possible.

Locations which may be affected include Fraser Island, Gympie, Kingaroy,
Sunshine Coast, Brisbane, Gold Coast, Toowoomba and Warwick.

[pgc hunter]

Again? I though we weren't supposed to get anymore rain ever again in Australia according to that brain dead warmist freak Tim FlimFlannery and Bob "I look exactly like Hitler" Brown.

[supernova1965 (Warren)]

It has been raining heavily constantly since yesterday evening here in Mackay and doesn't look like stopping anytime soon.

[jjjnettie (Jeanette)]

It's looking pretty good over St George way. If I didn't have my kids coming over tomorrow morning, I'd pack my scope and tent and head west. I bought a 12vt power supply the other day and I'm itching to try it out.

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/satellite/qld/infrared-bw

[FlashDrive (Poppy)]

Originally Posted by pgc hunter

Again? I though we weren't supposed to get anymore rain ever again in Australia according to that brain dead warmist freak Tim FlimFlannery and Bob "I look exactly like Hitler" Brown.

I agree .. !!!

Flash

[SkysoBright (Jase)]

I was at the Oxley Police academy last year when the brisbane floods were on. Don't blame me, but they flew me out of rocky when the floods were on up there only to fly into b'bane with the floods hitting the following day.

Anyway. Last years floods were that bad out toowoomba way, i was on standby for search and rescue operations to be flown from Oxley to Toowoomba via Blackhawk helicopter. However, due to the continual rain and wind, they couldn't operate.

[jjjnettie (Jeanette)]

The Sunny Coast is about to be slammed!
Some sources have increased estimates of rain fall in the next 24 hrs to be as high as 200 - 400mm.

Slipped into town earlier to top up the pantry, only to find out Kilcoy's water supply is contaminated. They are advising to only use boiled water for cleaning teeth, making ice and washing fruit and vegies.
The council are distributing free bottled water.

[jjjnettie (Jeanette)]

169mm of rainfall has been recorded at Cooroy in the 1 hour to 10:30pm.
127mm of rainfall has been recorded at Mount Tinbeerwah in the 1 hour to 10:30pm

That's nearly 7 inches of rain in just one hour for Cooroy.

[h0ughy (David)]

Originally Posted by jjjnettie

169mm of rainfall has been recorded at Cooroy in the 1 hour to 10:30pm.
127mm of rainfall has been recorded at Mount Tinbeerwah in the 1 hour to 10:30pm

That's nearly 7 inches of rain in just one hour for Cooroy.

for cooroy you now have a 1:100 flood event

Location : 26.425S 152.925E
Rainfall total : 169 mm
Duration : 60 minutes
Rainfall intensity: 169 mm/h

Average Recurrence Interval(ARI) of greater than or equal to 100 years.

Average Exceedance Probability(AEP) estimate of less than 1%.

[pmrid (Peter)]

I hope someone can remember where the Operations Manual for Wivenhoe Dam is kept these days.
Peter

[pgc hunter]

215mm in Tewantin overnight.

[jenchris (Jennifer)]

When it runs out, do we get to use our telescopes again?
I've forgotten how to use mine

[Barrykgerdes]

I got a message from the "boss" who said he got sick of you people complaining about the drought a couple of years ago and decided to teach you all a lesson.

Barry

[acropolite (Phil)]

Meanwhile in the deep south, Hobartians are being asked to water their gardens with buckets and have a total fire ban.

[Lester]

Hope you Queenslanders are okay, I cannot emagine that amount of rain where our annual average is less than 400mm.

All the best.

[GrahamL]

wow thats a lot of rain stay safe all ,, I think i've seen a couple of clearish nights this year , its strange we havnt had any 200 mm falls this summer in the northern rivers.

[clive milne]

Originally Posted by pgc hunter

Again? I though we weren't supposed to get anymore rain ever again in Australia according to that brain dead warmist freak Tim FlimFlannery and Bob "I look exactly like Hitler" Brown.

I think both Tim Flannery & Bob Brown are intelligent enough to make the distinction between short term localised weather events
& long term global climate trends.

Incidentally, the extreme wet weather in QLD lends support to climate change as a result of global warming, if anything.
One of the consequences of adding heat to the planet's ocean is an increase in the intensity and frequency of tropical storms etc)
Most of the country however, does not have a prevailing tropical air stream constantly feeding it moisture, so outside of that area
the long term prognosis is for less rain.

fwiw) The image below is the long term global climate (rainfall) prediction:



The image below shows the rainfall anomaly for last year that resulted from an exceptionally strong La-Nina event during that period.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/pics/Nasapothole.jpg

The upshot of all this is that as the world warms up, extreme weather events will be more intense and occur more often, be that in the form of heat waves, drought or flood.
Also, the areas that need water the most are the areas that will experience a drop in annual average rainfall.
Conversely, the areas that are predicted to see an increase in average rainfall need it the least.