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Old 13-09-2011, 08:41 PM
Alchemy (Clive)
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La Nina has returned

Vaious news sources are now announcing a return of la Nina, or as we in the Eastern States would refer to as cloudy, non astro friendly.

Only 2-3 weeks ago neutral conditions were prevalent, however things appear to be changing and quickly.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product.../ensodisc.html

The last 12 months have really been woeful as far as clear skies go, it seems a trend that will continue. Particularly where I live south of the great divide.

For queenslanders that means cyclones, more flooding, perhaps Perth might become the new astro centre, clear skies for months on end.
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Old 13-09-2011, 08:54 PM
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That NOAA report is somewhat slanted towards Northern Hemisphere effects - here's the latest Australian-centric view:

Increased chances of another La Niña in late 2011
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Old 13-09-2011, 09:04 PM
Alchemy (Clive)
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Yes currently saying not as strong as last year, still one to watch though

http://www.news.com.au/national/we-m...-1226135339871

Still means clouded out down here though, be pretty hard to find anyone down here impressed as far as astronomy goes.
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Old 13-09-2011, 09:05 PM
gary
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Thanks for the heads-up Clive,

The Australian BOM will have an ESNO update tomorrow, 14 Sept 2011, so
it will be interesting to see if the trend continues.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

The BOM web site suggests "It’s worth noting that since 1900, about half of all
La Niña events re-emerged in the second year".

Many will undoubtedly be hoping that any return this year will be weak.
Many more will be hoping that it is well and truly gone come Cairns November 2012.
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Old 13-09-2011, 10:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gary View Post

Many will undoubtedly be hoping that any return this year will be weak.
Many more will be hoping that it is well and truly gone come Cairns November 2012.
Yes it better be gone by then
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  #6  
Old 14-09-2011, 05:20 AM
Alchemy (Clive)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gary View Post
Thanks for the heads-up Clive,

The Australian BOM will have an ESNO update tomorrow, 14 Sept 2011, so
it will be interesting to see if the trend continues.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

The BOM web site suggests "It’s worth noting that since 1900, about half of all
La Niña events re-emerged in the second year"

Many will undoubtedly be hoping that any return this year will be weak.
Many more will be hoping that it is well and truly gone come Cairns November 2012.
That would be the total solar eclipse, Yes clear skies are a must. I don't know if MAREEBA is in the line for the total eclipse it's only a few kilometers away, and we were up there mid July, it has an unusually high proportion of clear sky days due to the topography, if ..... If..... The path of the eclipse goes through there that is THE place to be.
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Old 14-09-2011, 08:34 AM
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Wow! I didn't even noticed it had left us. Oh well, more clouds on the horizon?
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Old 14-09-2011, 09:57 AM
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renormalised (Carl)
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I don't like your chances for the eclipse next year, especially if the La Nina trend continues. In any case, the wet up here usually means cloud from horizon to horizon and raining much of the time. Even when it's not too cloudy, the humidity ruins your day for observing at night. I've lived up here for 37 years and I can tell you now that the weather guys don't always get it right. Observing conditions up here in the mid spring to summer and the early autumn are a day to day proposition. Usually it's a complete loss. So, even though the eclipse is during the day, don't expect the weather to play ball.
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Old 14-09-2011, 11:10 AM
Alchemy (Clive)
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Looks like you're in the know Carl, would be a terrible shame if it was clouded out. But the weather up there is so predictable, I was there in July 20 overnight 27 during the day..... Like clockwork.

La Nina will only make it worse, still, it is a year away yet..... One to watch.
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Old 14-09-2011, 11:27 AM
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Winter is the best time of year up here. The weather is very stable, for the most part. That's why the temps are quite predictable.

During the summer, the tablelands can get very cloudy. But you may strike a good day.
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  #11  
Old 14-09-2011, 11:59 AM
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La Nina again, oh great.

Another summer of washing & polishing the bike on Sunday only to see it covered in grime by Monday afternoon.
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  #12  
Old 14-09-2011, 05:01 PM
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Awww crap...my timing is uncanny. After a 2 year dormancy, I beefed up my supernova search lists and equipment and started searching again in May 2010, just when la Nina kicked in for us here in SE Qld.

Needless to say it's been a frustrating 12-16 months since (also hardly been able to do any colour imaging from Leyburn either), and looks like its not going to improve much now. Grrrrr
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  #13  
Old 14-09-2011, 05:10 PM
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ESNO Report by Australian BOM in today, 14 Sept 2011 -

Quote:

Pacific approaches La Niña. Positive Indian Ocean dipole develops.

Issued on Wednesday 14 September | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

Steady cooling of the central Pacific Ocean since early winter has increased the chance of La Niña returning during the last quarter of 2011. Current ENSO indicators are approaching values typically associated with La Niña events.

However, ocean temperatures are yet to reach critical thresholds, while climate model guidance about their future trends is mixed. Some models predict only modest cooling resulting in a borderline-La Niña event, but others predict stronger cooling beyond La Niña thresholds during the southern spring. A minority predict little or no cooling. Taken as a whole, there is an expectation that the trend towards La Niña will continue.

If a La Niña does form, current indicators are that it will be weaker than the strong 2010-11 event. La Niña events raise the odds of above average rainfall across the north and east of the country, but don't guarantee it. The Bureau's National Climate Centre will monitor the situation closely and issue regular updates via this summary.

The latest observations from the Indian Ocean show the development of a positive dipole event, as predicted over the last few months by climate models, including the Bureau's POAMA. Typically peaking in spring, positive dipole modes increase the chance of below average rainfall over southeastern and central Australia.
Full report on BOM web site here -
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
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Old 14-09-2011, 05:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gary View Post
ESNO Report by Australian BOM in today, 14 Sept 2011
...
Full report on BOM web site here -
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
Sounds like 'the usual' each-way bet, there Gary !

Cheers
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Old 14-09-2011, 05:25 PM
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Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by CraigS View Post
Sounds like 'the usual' each-way bet, there Gary !

Cheers
"It's going to be a fine day, with showers and thunderstorms later on in the afternoon"....sounds like a typical weather report

Or, "fine, with a chance of rain"
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Old 14-09-2011, 05:29 PM
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Quote:
Typically peaking in spring, positive dipole modes increase the chance of below average rainfall over southeastern and central Australia.
Yep...everyone will move their scopes down there and it'll bucket down for 3 months straight!!!!

Central Australia...it'll be one of the rare times the Todd River Regatta is actually held on water!!!!
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  #17  
Old 14-09-2011, 05:32 PM
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Gem (Grant)
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Life's truths:

New scope = clouds n rain

Being o/s = rugby league team doing well

Following soccer = multiple relegations for my team

Buying shares for the first time = financial crisis

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  #18  
Old 14-09-2011, 05:54 PM
Alchemy (Clive)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gem View Post
Life's truths:

New scope = clouds n rain

Being o/s = rugby league team doing well

Following soccer = multiple relegations for my team
Buying shares for the first time = financial crisis
Yep know the feeling,

just bought new car, petrol going up plus carbon tax possibility
Just paid for new astro camera... Cloudy for next 12 months
Almost predictable.

Mind you the BOM does love the vague , .... Fine with occasional showers,
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  #19  
Old 14-09-2011, 06:20 PM
gary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CraigS View Post
Sounds like 'the usual' each-way bet, there Gary !

Cheers
Hi Craig,

Language that would leave even the best bookmaker scratching their head.

But I can see where they are coming from to an extent, particularly when they
mention that "The latest observations from the Indian Ocean show the development of a
positive dipole event, as predicted over the last few months by climate models, including the Bureau's POAMA.
Typically peaking in spring, positive dipole modes increase the
chance of below average rainfall over southeastern and central Australia.
"

The El Niño/La Niña Pacific cycle is the one most people have heard of and historically
seems to have been the one studied for longer and in more depth compared to the
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).

Where the events in Australia late last year and early this year were
extraordinary was that there was this "perfect storm" conjunction of an
extremely positive SOI La Niña and an extremely negative Indian Ocean
Dipole. This time around they appear to be saying that at least the IOD is positive,
pulling in the other direction to the weak La Niña as it were, a positive IOD
usually bringing drier weather for southeast and central Australia.

And a positive IOD might be possibly be a win-win for Australia and parts of Africa,
with the hope that at least some parts of the Horn of Africa might get some much
needed rainfall.
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  #20  
Old 14-09-2011, 06:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gary View Post
Hi Craig,

Language that would leave even the best bookmaker scratching their head.

But I can see where they are coming from to an extent, particularly when they mention that "The latest observations from the Indian Ocean show the development of a positive dipole event, as predicted over the last few months by climate models, including the Bureau's POAMA.
Typically peaking in spring, positive dipole modes increase the
chance of below average rainfall over southeastern and central Australia.
"

The El Niño/La Niña Pacific cycle is the one most people have heard of and historically seems to have been the one studied for longer and in more depth compared to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).

Where the events in Australia late last year and early this year were
extraordinary was that there was this "perfect storm" conjunction of an
extremely positive SOI La Niña and an extremely negative Indian Ocean
Dipole. This time around they appear to be saying that at least the IOD is positive, pulling in the other direction to the weak La Niña as it were, a positive IOD usually bringing drier weather for southeast and central Australia.

And a positive IOD might be possibly be a win-win for Australia and parts of Africa, with the hope that at least some parts of the Horn of Africa might get some much needed rainfall.
Yes, I suppose its a lot easier to predict once they can see these structures actually forming .. but how about predictions > 1 year in advance ?

These guys think they've got it all sorted …
Can scientists look at next year's climate?
Quote:
Is it possible to make valid climate predictions that go beyond weeks, months, even a year? UCLA atmospheric scientists report they have now made long-term climate forecasts that are among the best ever -- predicting climate up to 16 months in advance, nearly twice the length of time previously achieved by climate scientists.
(Unfortunately, the paper is behind a paywall).

Hmm .. I'll believe it when I see it being used by the BOM, and making predictions which give folk enough time to batten down the hatches, eh ?


Cheers
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