The London school of medicine has been plotting the new and recovering cases of Corona for a time now....but are now using an "epi curve".
Sadly this common sense method of plotting the severity of on epidemic has been lost on the tabloid media. COVID19 peaked globally on about February 9th and the number of people affected is now waning. See:
The media are still beating this thing up for all they are worth...but the reality is, while total case numbers may trickle up slowly, new incidence is well on the decline.
Hence my prediction is in about a month from now, many will be scratching their heads and wonder what the fuss was all about
Still worried about carking it? Get a flu shot, get some exercise, pay attention on the roads.....neglecting these will far more likely kill you.
Would it mean that the current measures to slow it (a.k.a. "fuss") were unnecessary? I don't think so but look forward to being wrong.
No, that is not what I am saying. Current measures have been effective...maybe even a little too draconian (eg cancelling the Melbourne formula 1) ...but the WHO data clearly shows this thing has peaked and is well and truly on the decline.
There's at least one massive potential flaw in that article, Peter. Numbers in the maps are based on reported figures based on tests being done. There's already information out there that in some places not enough testing is being done or has not been started early enough to catch cases (e.g. USA). Some deaths are being more closely investigated and are now found to be COVID-19 related. The article doesn't take this into account at all.
The next problem is the date. Feb 17 for the article shows the number at about 69K. Today the same map is at 128K. Doesn't look like it's slowed down much to me. Could it be that because it's escaped China's strict lockdown and gone to other areas that were more lax that it's picked up again?
I'm very surprised that you would post such a thing, it's so flawed that's it's dangerous in such a situation we're in, where we have so many stupid people doing stupid things.
Look at the CSSE page, bottom right window, click on 'Daily Cases' and then maximise (so you can read the axes). Firstly, the bar graph shown there is different to the CoronaGeddon bar graph, the latter misses the peak on Feb 12-13. Second, the CSSE shows a steady increase in daily new cases starting from about 19/2 and continuing until now.
Personally, I'm glad (gladder than normal) I'm starting annual leave today. Campus is a worrying place to be at the moment. Around here they are preparing for remote teaching and work from home. Both things already exist but they have put on extra training sessions for staff that want to upload lectures etc. And this morning new VPN software was rolled out so people can very easily access files on network drives from home.
In countries such as South Korea where testing extensive and at around 140,000+ at present the mortality rate is running down about to about 0.6%.
COVID19 is certainly highly virulent...but there are nowhere near as many cases as common flu...which the press does not give a toss about....and nearly all people are recovering.
Sure, take precautions. A week ago I suggested Australian cases would top out at a few hundred.....and so far the Dept of health says:
"As at 11:00 hrs on 12 March 2020, we have 126 confirmed cases of coronavirus (COVID-19), including 3 deaths, in Australia"
Not sure how we are going to get to 1.4 million...as some tabloids are predicting...
Care to take bets on what the Oz infection number will be this time next week?
I have it on good authority we have not seen the peak yet and will not see the peak for quite some time. My sister who is a senior scientist immunologist for a large Pharma Firm in the US says that transmission rates are still unknown and vary region to region. The large firms are concerned that the virus is more wide spread that is being stated or test results show. The WHO is now very concerned that not enough is being done to manage the problem. Hence why they have declared a pandemic. Testing in the US is thousands less than what it should be per day. Australia is doing better but still way behind. South Korea is about right at 4000+ tests per day.
Right now there are 134K cases. Yesterday is was 125K cases. That is 9000 cases over night. Italy has 3000 new cases over night. Now at 15,000. Iran, S. Korea, Spain, France and Germany are all in the 2000+ cases now. Australia today has 156 cases. The lack of testing simply because people might not consider the symptoms they have (there is a cold getting around at present, I have had it and wondered if I had contracted the virus; likely not but still I wondered) as being necessitating a test. Not to mention that the test costs money in countries like the US. It is therefore highly likely that the virus is roaming rampant around many countries right now. Even more than you think here. You cannot simply use raw data to extrapolate what is going on.
You need to do an R0 calculation to see that right now it is highly unknown when the peak will be. Fortunately the Chinese took drastic steps to halt transmission in their country, otherwise it would right now be in the tens of millions affected and deaths would be shocking now. Many other countries have not yet done enough to halt transmission. This is ultimately the problem and countries like Australia are still just talking about advice and not acting. Locking down cities and regions is the way to burn it out now.
I hope you are right Peter but I suspect that you are not. The beast has the potential to kill many and mutate for a second round. If it mutates we'll never get a hold of it. It will be like the flu but on steroids.
"As at 11:00 hrs on 12 March 2020, we have 126 confirmed cases of coronavirus (COVID-19), including 3 deaths, in Australia"
Not sure how we are going to get to 1.4 million...as some tabloids are predicting...
Care to take bets on what the Oz infection number will be this time next week?
So, today is the 13th and we are up from 126 to 156 ...an increase of ...% you can let me know. So what numbers do you predict for tomorrow Pete?
People keep misusing common Flu figures for a 3 month old, new virus, highly contagious, high hospitalisation, with no vaccine in sight. I think you used to occasionally reply with what a load of "bollocks".
Draconian...Nowhere near where we need to be yet.
Though I do admire your optimism. And we need that atm so thank you. I hope you are right.
I have an awful lot to lose if we end up anything like Italy.
COVID19 is certainly highly virulent...but there are nowhere near as many cases as common flu...which the press does not give a toss about....and nearly all people are recovering.
The issue isn't COVID-19 versus the common flu. The common flu mortatility is less thatn 0.1%.
For COVID-19... Death by age bracket is not good. Thankfully not as bad as MERS (34%) or SARS (9.6%).
FYI: First case of the virus in Wyoming USA yesterday. Walmart ran out of toilet paper and people are stocking up. We always carry two months of supplies, so I'm not fussed.
news.com.au has jumped the number up to 199, but as mentioned above the official figure at 11am is 156, which is still a significant growth from the previous day.
Like PeterM, I have a lot to lose. While I'm not an elevated risk for my age, my wife has underlying medical issues that increase her risk, her father is 91 and frail, and my parents are in the mid 70s also with a number of medical issues.
I want a crack down not because I think it will stop it, but to "flatten the wave" and give medical systems a chance to manage it without becoming another Italy.
I have it on good authority we have not seen the peak yet and will not see the peak for quite some time. ..........
You raise some good points Paul, and I agree the global peak is unlikely to have been reached as yet. But I believe the situation is Australia is quite different....and also point out China has past peak numbers already.
I suspect with proper containment, the R naught value may well be less than one, plus Modena Inc. have developed a vaccine which is in clinical trials as I write.
If the number of cases in Australia doubles over the weekend, then, I'll happily admit I'm totally off the reservation on this one....but I sincerely doubt it.
Reported in the tabloid media on March 3.
Brisbane Times, sourced from the New York Times - US testing for coronavirus comes under fire
Basically the US, used too strict conditions to get people tested, instead of using the German detection kits the USA went and tried to create their own. The first batch of US test kits were faulty. The second batch incomplete. And the FDA and CDC were carrying out turf wars against each other on behalf of corporate USA. And to cap things, final testing from results from the incomplete US test kits still has to be done by the CDC.
So numbers of infected in the USA are expected to actively rise.
So how does the testing problems described in that NYT sourced article, affect the USA figures for projected infected and fatalities?
You raise some good points Paul, and I agree the global peak is unlikely to have been reached as yet. But I believe the situation is Australia is quite different....and also point out China has past peak numbers already.
I suspect with proper containment, the R naught value may well be less than one, plus Modena Inc. have developed a vaccine which is in clinical trials as I write.
If the number of cases in Australia doubles over the weekend, then, I'll happily admit I'm totally off the reservation on this one....but I sincerely doubt it.
True Peter, the official stats provided by a very secretive government (China) do show a very quick flattening of both the infection and death curve........which more or less match up with the sharp downturn in the China economy. For such an infectious virus I find it a little suspicious to be honest.
One issue I think we have in Victoria atm is the multitude of international visitors to the cancelled Grand Prix are now at a loose end for the weekend. I sincerely doubt they will sit in their hotels and do nothing. From what I understand tour operators out of the city have had a sharp upturn in bookings today......it may be the cancelation of the Grand Prix may just cause a wider spread of infections in to country areas.....just my thoughts
....
So numbers of infected in the USA are expected to actively rise.
.......
May well be the case...but as someone said: God bless America, and thank Christ for Australia...
Universal health care is not a bad thing
P.S.
The Oz numbers still don't stack up for me. About 244,000 Australians died last year in aged care facilities. Coronary heart disease being the numero uno
cause...but we now are up to 3 COVID19 deaths and there is panic.
I don't get it. What am I missing?
May well be the case...but as someone said: God bless America, and thank Christ for Australia...
Universal health care is not a bad thing
P.S.
The Oz numbers still don't stack up for me. About 244,000 Australians died last year in aged care facilities. Coronary heart disease being the numero uno
cause...but we now are up to 3 COVID19 deaths and there is panic.
I don't get it. What am I missing?
Your not missing anything as you answered your own question "universal health care" so while hospitals are able to cope with the now 200 infections and our magnificent health care workers arw keeping the deaths to 3. But if we have 15,000 plus and rising like Italy do you really still think we won't have a problem?
......... But if we have 15,000 plus and rising like Italy do you really still think we won't have a problem?
Of course those sorts of numbers will be a problem.... if the affected population indeed require hospitalization , but if the vast majority of people present with a runny nose (and little more).....just sayin'....this is hardly Ebola....
Mind you...I hear Dutton has it (OK. I'm not a fan)
(OK. I'm not a fan)
