Watching the Weather in Cairns - Page 7

Paul Haese · #**121** 09-11-2012, 11:19 PM

Its been 22 years since I have been here in Cairns and the weather is still the same. Cloud this morning and cloud this evening. Looking 50/50 at this stage. No monsoon trough is good though. Time will tell. Certainly not betting on going just over the range.

h0ughy (David) · #**122** 09-11-2012, 11:51 PM

why cant we have a high pressure system sit over the area and clear the clouds and have clear crisp skies....... not that i anxious or anything?

Eclipser (Mike) · #**123** 10-11-2012, 01:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philiphart

There is a little discussion of this further up the thread, but in short yes, I have considered the position of the sun at eclipse time when making the assessments.

Since it is mostly low loud up to heights of around 2km, you only need to be around 8km west of the cloud for the sun to be above it. I would agree that just a little west of the ranges is not the ideal place to be, but 60km inland (which is the position I have been describing) has generally been clear of any effect of cloud over the ranges, but there are some days when it does extend inland far enough that it would be a problem.

Thank you for your reply.
Then a good inland position may be hard to find. The Mulligan Hwy provides by the far the best driving conditions, but after several kilometers head north and the east is "hidden" above mountains.
Just before it heads north, you seemed to find it a nice place. Link is below, I've added the relief in google maps to highlight what I mean. Mount Carbine is straight in the line of sight, and it's a bit scaring in my opinion... irrationnal maybe ?

http://maps.google.com/maps?q=cairns...97.08,,0,-6.67

I don't know what to think from all that. And the day before, driving make it impossible to have internet and latest weather forecasts of course, the 13th in the morning is the last chance before taking the car and preceding the crowd... I think I will ultimately roll a dice for this eclipse.

Phil Hart · #**124** 10-11-2012, 06:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by h0ughy

why cant we have a high pressure system sit over the area and clear the clouds and have clear crisp skies....... not that i anxious or anything?

it's on the way houghy.. it's *much* better that this trough affects Cairns Saturday-Monday rather than middle of next week! we will back to high pressure ridge over the area on Wednesday, but that still means moist easterly flow with variable and unpredictable cloud on wednesday morning.

Phil

Willoughby (Willoughby) · #**125** 10-11-2012, 07:13 AM

Uh oh. This morning's EC and GFS runs aren't looking so good for Cairns.

gregbradley · #**126** 10-11-2012, 07:50 AM

In NSW weather is distinctly different on the western side of the Great Dividing Range to the eastern side. Generally it is far clearer but not always. Sometimes that is in reverse but usually that is a pattern of weather behaviour and is predictable. Many times beyond count I have left cloudy Sydney to go to my western side of the ranges site to arrive to completely clear skies. Or leave completely clear skies and drive into cloud and even rain on the eastern side. Occassionally that reverses but that's much rarer.

I often see cloud over the sea around Sydney but clear most other parts of the sky. That is a very very common behaviour. No doubt due to the difference in sea air masses and air coming from land masses.

Sydney forecast for Wed is partly cloudy. I think that will mean a low probability of seeing directly the partial eclipse here.

I see forecast for Cairns isolated showers til Tues (wed forecast is not up).

If I were going to Cairns (I am not) I would be inclined to go inland somewhere.

Its very observable that rain/cloud do not like to go over easterly mountain ranges (thats why the eastern side is usually lush and green and the western side is drier).

Getting a vantage point above mountains blocking the view would be the next issue as it is occurring low down in the sky.

I myself will probably go to my dark site where it is very likely to be totally clear whilst Sydney is very likely to be fully or partially blocking the view.

I have had the past few lunar eclipses and the transit now where Sydney weather blocked the view and I don't enjoy looking to little openings in the cloud to give a 2 second view!

My 2C.

I'd be scouting for inland unobstructed views around Cairns (limited roads up there as well).

I'd be asking locals how often is there cloud out to sea in the mornings there? (I think I already know the answer). I was up there on holidays last year in early Nov and it was slightly cloudy out to sea up to about 15 degrees, as I recall, almost every morning but sunny skies elsewhere and it would clear up later in the morning. So I would put the probability as high you will get a partial view and low it is totally obstructed and low as being totally unobstructed along the coast. I see the streaming cloud at present is coming down from New Guinea and slowly moving easterly.

Greg.

Paul Haese · #**127** 10-11-2012, 08:49 AM

Like I said things have not chhanged here since living here. Cloud building on the range will not allow viewing west for a long way down the center line. The roads out west are not great, any rain in that region could mean closure. There will be thousands of people out there travelling those roads in the 24 hours prior.

I have viewed two eclipses through cloud and I can say if it is broken and thinning then you will most likely see something from Cairns. If your only reason for travelling to this eclipse is to take award winning images then forget coming up. There will be cloud on the day, the high pressure ridge will mean nothing other than clearer skies. From what I understand many of you have never seen an eclipse with your own eyes and yet are bringing mountains of equipment. Just come with tripod and camera is my opinion. Cloud will kill any settings you might have in a program; you have to shoot with the conditions and the conditions with cloud will mean mainly over blown images with cloud.

All this speculation on what the conditions will be like is just going to build anxiety. It will be cloudy, you might not see it. Many people in China just kilometers from us did not see the corona. You have to have some luck with you and you are coming to the tropics (which is very different from further south) in the wet season. Plan for just sitting in the darkness and you might just be surprised.

RichardJ (Richard) · #**128** 10-11-2012, 08:56 AM

Good advice Paul.

There's lots to see and do around Cairns. I'm going to make the most of it. If I get to see the eclipse it will be a blessing.

RichardJ

Blaznee (Gary) · #**129** 10-11-2012, 08:58 AM

This mornings view of the rising sun (position only) at 06:40 from Trinity Beach.
Storms out to sea usually mean a fairly high cloud ceiling.

Gary

cyclone · #**130** 10-11-2012, 09:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RichardJ

Good advice Paul.

There's lots to see and do around Cairns. I'm going to make the most of it. If I get to see the eclipse it will be a blessing.

RichardJ

yesterday, i dropped off some lychees at a stall at Rusty's markets, try them....

rowena · #**131** 10-11-2012, 11:57 AM

Clouds can be a blessing too for a photo.... One of my pics from Ceduna 2002 - The clouds only broke seconds before totality!!!!

http://sphotos-a.ak.fbcdn.net/hphoto...04764581_n.jpg

rowena · #**132** 10-11-2012, 12:25 PM

Road closure List from http://www.eclipsecairns.com/

Kuranda Range Lookout & Rex Lookout:
Closed.

Lake Morris Road:
Closed. Residential Traffic Only.

Oak Beach:
will be open to vehicular traffic however parking is limited. Once the limited parking capacity is reached the area will be closed. Viewing at Oak Beach is not recommended.

Wangetti Beach:
A large parking area will be available opposite Wangetti College for a gold coin donation to the school. The beach is accessible from this parking area along a 400 metre road. The beach access road will be closed to vehicle traffic for the morning.

Palm Cove Boat ramp:
closed from 4pm Tuesday, November 13 until 12 midday on November 14.

Palm Cove Jetty:
Open until reached capacity. Fishing from the jetty is prohibited between midnight and 8am on Wednesday 14 November.

Yorkeys Knob:
Ray and Janet streets closed. Residential traffic only.

Trinity Beach:
Southern end Vasey Esplanade/Possum Street closed. Residential traffic only.

Port Douglas and Mossman
Port Douglas Esplanade Four Mile Beach (between Macrossan – Mowbray) Closed with barriers on Macrossan and Mowbray Streets after the Garrick Street intersection.. Residential traffic only.

Mowbray Street and Macrossan Street:
Closed. Residential traffic only.

Island Point Road:
Closed with barriers at Murphy and Wharf Streets. Residential traffic only.

Murphy Street:
South of Owen Street closed. Residential traffic only.

Flagstaff and Alexandra Range Lookout in the Daintree:
Closed.

Changed traffic conditions will also apply for the Eclipse Marathon and the Port Douglas Eclipse Festival. Please drive safely and obey all signage.

cyclone · #**133** 10-11-2012, 10:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philiphart

I'm sure I'm not the only one who'd be interested in a summary of what they said..

Phil

sorry i missed this quote.

All they said is once the trough moves off, Cairns will return to a SE moist airflow.

Please let me know if the stream works, as it will be HOT subject on the ABC radio from Monday.

Paul Haese · #**134** 11-11-2012, 11:44 AM

If the eclipse was this morning the conditions would have been near perfect. The image below was taken just prior to dawn. At 638am there was no cloud at all.

cyclone · #**135** 11-11-2012, 01:16 PM

it appears that the Mt Carbine camera has stopped uploading.
Fault in equipment ?
internet connection down at pub ?
Stolen ?

Looks like i have to drive up there tomorrow to have a look.....

Danack (Dan Ackroyd) · #**136** 11-11-2012, 02:05 PM

I've just checked the pressure charts predicted for Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. It looks like the weather on Wednesday morning will be almost identical to the weather on Tuesday, so i'm really interested in hearing people's reports from then.

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/char...er/index.shtml

Liz · #**137** 11-11-2012, 03:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cyclone

it appears that the Mt Carbine camera has stopped uploading.
Fault in equipment ?
internet connection down at pub ?
Stolen ?

Looks like i have to drive up there tomorrow to have a look.....

yes, had noticed that ... nope its OK.

cyclone · #**138** 11-11-2012, 05:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Liz

yes, had noticed that ... nope its OK.

I've tried to ring the Mt Carbine pub, and can't get through (been trying for a few hours), can someone go there and see if everything is ok.

cyclone · #**139** 11-11-2012, 06:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cyclone

I've tried to ring the Mt Carbine pub, and can't get through (been trying for a few hours), can someone go there and see if everything is ok.

ok, i got through, no problem

Paul Haese · #**140** 11-11-2012, 09:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danack

I've just checked the pressure charts predicted for Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. It looks like the weather on Wednesday morning will be almost identical to the weather on Tuesday, so i'm really interested in hearing people's reports from then.

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/char...er/index.shtml

I am getting up tomorrow to make another report.