I pray it will be clear on the day. The weather and I are old adversaries . I love the quote attributted to Charles Dudley Warner (also attributed to Mark Twain) about the New England weather which many of you probably know.
The weather is a topic "about which a great deal is said, but very little is done."
I have commented on this up the thread as well after doing a bit of my own trigonometry
One of the nice features on Fred B's eclipsewx.com site is that for a number of locations, he has indicated on the maps where a 9km cloud would block the view of the Sun.
The stills from each morning are archived, so you can get an idea, each day, from a number of sites, if the eclipse would have been visible or not.
One of the nice features on Fred B's eclipsewx.com site is that for a number of locations, he has indicated on the maps where a 9km cloud would block the view of the Sun.
The stills from each morning are archived, so you can get an idea, each day, from a number of sites, if the eclipse would have been visible or not.
Thanks Geoff.. I hadn't spent too much time on Fred's site yet but it's certainly worth a look.
A quick analysis of his archive images for the last 19 days yields the following breakdown, which I think is pretty similar to the results I've shown:
Cairns: Yes 3, Maybe 6, No 10
Port Douglas: Yes 5, Maybe 3, No 11
Mulligan Highway: Yes 12, Maybe 4, No 3
Very roughly a 70% chance of success 60km inland and about a 35% chance on the coast. The bad days inland are generally associated with bigger disturbances like the decaying trough which will move through late this week and the weekend. Hopefully a more typical pattern reasserts itself by eclipse day.
I think that's a pretty convincing argument for heading inland for those who can. Just a pity the roads won't accommodate that many people! Of course you can get lucky or unlucky anywhere on the day!
Synoptic Situation: A high is expected to remain slow moving near New Zealand over the next few days, maintaining a firm ridge along the east Queensland coast. A surface trough over southwestern Queensland will move only slowly eastwards through western Queensland during Wednesday.
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands Forecast: Isolated showers about the coast and ranges, mainly during the morning and evening. Light to moderate S to SE winds. Cloud Forecasts BoM Access Model: High cloud north of eclipse area and a little in central Cape York over the path. Low cloud offshore mainly south of Cairns.
Skippy Sky: A little low cloud offshore and the usual indication at Mt Carbine. Less high cloud than BoM model, mainly western and far northern Cape York.
EU: 40-70% low cloud for Cairns/Port Douglas with some mid-level cloud after eclipse time. 50% low cloud at Mt Carbine. <30% low cloud inland.
Satellite Analysis/Observed Weather Visible Satellite Image (6:33AM): Patchy cloud cover along the coast, over the ranges and offshore. Clearest sky halfway between Cairns and Port Douglas.
Cairns Airport (6:30AM): Few clouds (2-3 oktas) at 2600ft.
Webcams: Cloud cover low in east initially but increasing at Cairns through the morning and sun largely obscured (unluckily) at eclipse time. Clearer skies in Mareeba and Mt Carbine.
Low cloud pattern similar to previous days.. models not able to say much meaningful about the details. European model probably the most useful indicator. BoM and US Model did a reasonable job indicating the high cloud over Cape York, with the reality probably somewhere between the two.
Chance of Success (if eclipse had been this day)
Coast: ~~40% (just clouded out in Cairns, but a little clearer to the north. reports from anybody in Port Douglas today welcome.)
60km Inland:~70-80%
This forcast for Cairns on Wed the 14th from Accuweather
A plan B to go west the night before could be the go !
There is little chance of getting anywhere west on the morning of the eclipse.
a word of warning.....
if nasty accident occurs the range roads, the road will close.
I've seen accidents with trucks involved and the road is closed for 7 hours, if its cars its less.
Synoptic Situation: A high near New Zealand is expected to remain near stationary into Friday with a weakening ridge along the east coast of Queensland. A trough is approaching the western border from South Australia and will merge with a stationary trough already over western Queensland by Friday then move further east.
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands Forecast: Fine and partly cloudy. Light to moderate E to SE winds with NE seabreezes about the coast. Cloud Forecasts BoM Access Model: Clouds over the ranges and a little offshore. Indication of some low cloud in central Cape York.
Skippy Sky: Some low cloud over the ranges and offshore. Heavy high cloud across Cape York as far south as Cairns.
EU: 30-100% low cloud for Cairns/Port Douglas. 0-30% low cloud inland. 30% low cloud at Mt Carbine.
Satellite Analysis/Observed Weather Visible Satellite Image (6:33AM): Broken low cloud cover along the coast, over the ranges and extending a little offshore. Thin high cloud affecting the entire inland eclipse track.
Cairns Airport (7:00AM): Broken cloud cover at 2600ft and 4500ft.
Webcams: Cloudy in Cairns. Sun in view from Mareeba and Mt Carbine but affected by high cloud.
Low cloud pattern similar to previous days and again you can't interpret any details from the models, other than coast vs inland trends. High cloud was much better described by US model on this occasion.
Chance of Success (if eclipse had been this day)
Coast: <10%
60km Inland:<20% chance of clear view, but most areas would have had a hazy view through high cloud.
Some thoughts about the weather and the models looking ahead, bearing in mind that I am not a trained meteorologist and have almost zero experience of tropical weather - but I am having fun studying the weather!
A trough currently moving through central Queensland will weaken/decay as it moves further east, but will still have some effect on FNQ over the weekend. The moisture and instability associated with the trough means that the weather patterns over the weekend and into early next week will NOT be indicative of what we are likely to see on Wednesday morning. But they will make for a very anxious weekend for everybody arriving in the eclipse area!
So don't lose heart if Monday and even Tuesday morning are damp and cloudy. Having said that, even by Wednesday we may not be back to the best conditions we've seen some days over the last weeks, but there sure is room for hope.
With the trough having hopefully faded away, we should be back to a typical easterly pattern, which means a variable and unpredictable amount of morning cloud along the coast, offshore and over the ranges. Under these conditions, the trend improves inland but far from certain 60km inland which is about as far as you can easily get.
Low clouds in this environment (or anywhere) are chaotic and hard to predict. Even the night before the eclipse, the weather models simply cannot say anything sensible about whether Cairns or Port Douglas or somewhere else along the coast is likely to have more or less low cloud. If you plan to be mobile, ignore the models and watch the skies and the infrared satellite image and make your decisions on that. But you'll have to make your move so early given limited road capacity and road closures that even these will be of little predictive value.
What the models can and have indicated is that on the days with the prevailing easterly pattern, inland locations tend to do better. But exactly which ones, again the models are just guessing. ie. don't place any meaning on an indication in the model that north of the centreline is going to do better than a little south.
Just because the US model appears to show a diamond shaped patch of low cloud over Mt Carbine (which it often does), or one just offshore from Port Douglas, does not mean it actually knows something about these specific locations. These are just artifacts of the low resolution of the models. The width of the eclipse track is covered by just a few grid points in the model.. nowhere near enough to accurately predict the variation in low cloud cover.
Also remember that just about every free weather website on the web is presenting data from the same US GFS weather model. They do it with different colours and icons, but it's generally the same data (Skippy Sky is a great one-stop shop for astronomers wanting to see output from the GFS model). While I would rate the European model and forecasts from the Australian BoM as just slightly better than the US model, the value is in checking three different sources to see how much they differ.
So do checkout yr.no, and search for forecasts for Cairns, Port Douglas, Mt Carbine, Mt Mulligan, Mt Gibson etc). To my knowledge this is the only publicly accessible website providing forecasts from the European model. Hit the hour-by-hour link and then the detailed option for full cloud details. Then take an average of places in a similar environment.. eg look at forecasts for Cairns and Port Douglas to get an idea of the average forecast for the coast, but don't place any meaning on the specific differences between the two.
You can also check out synthetic satellite forecast images from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology ACCESS model, but these are quite hard to interpret if you're not familiar with them. Much simpler but just as meaningful is to look at the BoM text forecast for the region. 'Scattered showers' is worse than a forecast for only 'isolated showers'. 'Partly cloudy' is a pretty good forecast for this area and only rarely will you get 'mainly sunny'. The computer models may seem like they provide a beautiful amount of detail, but what they really 'know' is nothing more than what is captured by those broad forecast statements.
Synoptic Situation: A weakening high over New Zealand extends a ridge onto the Queensland east coast. A trough occurs over the interior and is expected to drift further east tomorrow, eventually reaching the southeast region on Saturday.
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands Forecast: Isolated showers about the coast and ranges, mainly during the afternoon and evening. Light to moderate E to SE winds with afternoon seabreezes about the coast. Cloud Forecasts BoM Access Model: A little low cloud over the ranges and offshore, perhaps also extending a little further inland than average. Some patches of high cloud moving down from the north, but not much around eclipse time.
Skippy Sky: Some low cloud over the ranges and offshore. Extensive high cloud over Cape York and heaviest just east of the coast. Less high cloud south of Cairns.
EU: Anywhere from 10-90% low cloud for Cairns/Port Douglas, with 50-90% high cloud as well. 0-50% low cloud for locations 60km inland, with 10-100% high cloud also.
Satellite Analysis/Observed Weather Visible Satellite Image (6:33AM): Scattered low cloud along the coast, over the ranges and offshore. Clear skies inland. Some high cloud over northern Cape York and a band of cloud associated with a trough moving through central Queensland.
Cairns Airport (7:00AM): Scattered cloud at 2600ft.
Webcams: Scattered or broken cloud cover in Cairns with little clear view of the sun. Reports from Port Douglas of clearer skies earlier in the morning but the sun clouded out at eclipse time. Clear skies in Mareeba and Mt Carbine on the webcams.
Low cloud pattern similar to many previous days, and again the models are useful for seeing the pattern but not any of the details. US model overstated high cloud again this time.
Chance of Success (if eclipse had been this day)
Coast: ~10-20%
60km Inland: >90%
This will be the last of these updates.. I arrive in Port Douglas tomorrow and things will get hectic! At any rate, because the cloud patterns over the next few days will be affected by the trough, they won't provide much useful information about probable weather on eclipse day.
I will try and post some weather updates about eclipse day itself, with a final one by around 6pm Tuesday afternoon (at which time I will have a meteorologist with me as well). But I don't expect to be able to say much more then than I did in the last post.. the usual pattern should be in play again which means there ain't nobody who will be able to predict exactly where the clouds will be on eclipse morning, other than to say the trend will likely be better inland.
As a Trinity Beach resident I have been keeping a close eye on the changing weather patterns as we move towards the wet season. So far it is looking 50/50 for a clear morning for the eclipse.
I took this photo from the southern end of Trinity Beach this morning at 06:00 hrs. Around 07:30 it clouded over and started showering.
I will be taking more photos over the weekend and will post them on this thread should anyone be interested.
Hello everyone, I'm writing this email from Cairns.
I'm not quiet sure how to interpret the various data given in the previous posts. I don't know exactly what is meant by "inland" and what is meant by "coast". In particular, there are 2 points to note:
- Cairns is encircled by big hills/low mountains, and the lands ~50km "behind" Cairns may be sunny, but the eastern horizon is often blocked by cloud over those mountains. It is the same for Port Douglas. You must go very far to have absolutely no mountain on the easter horizon.
-What does "50%" or "90% chance of seeing the eclipse" mean ? From what I can observe on the terrain, the only thing important is the cloud coverage dozens of kilometers east from the observing site. It often happens here that it is raining on Cairns and on the coast, but the sun at 13° high is perfectly visible.
So just don't forget that cloud coverage over "60km inland" is interesting if you are located 90km inland. Cloud coverage over coast is important if you are located inland. And clould coverage over the sea is important if you are located on the coast.
From what I could observe, the coast seems a quiet better place for observing than the inland. I say that independantly from the data (and the good work) provided here which should be hard to interpret (including height of the clouds, etc...). The sun beeing very low, clearly the weather above your head has no importance at all (even if often correlated to the regional weather).
If others did observe the same thing than me, thanks for sharing your opinion.
Correct me if I'm wrong but I think the discussion of cloud coverage has considered the cloud to the east of the position ("inland" or "coast") that will then affect views of the sun close to the horizon rather than what is overhead at said position?
Hello everyone, I'm writing this email from Cairns.
I'm not quiet sure how to interpret the various data given in the previous posts. I don't know exactly what is meant by "inland" and what is meant by "coast". In particular, there are 2 points to note:
- Cairns is encircled by big hills/low mountains, and the lands ~50km "behind" Cairns may be sunny, but the eastern horizon is often blocked by cloud over those mountains. It is the same for Port Douglas. You must go very far to have absolutely no mountain on the easter horizon.
-What does "50%" or "90% chance of seeing the eclipse" mean ? From what I can observe on the terrain, the only thing important is the cloud coverage dozens of kilometers east from the observing site. It often happens here that it is raining on Cairns and on the coast, but the sun at 13° high is perfectly visible.
So just don't forget that cloud coverage over "60km inland" is interesting if you are located 90km inland. Cloud coverage over coast is important if you are located inland. And clould coverage over the sea is important if you are located on the coast.
From what I could observe, the coast seems a quiet better place for observing than the inland. I say that independantly from the data (and the good work) provided here which should be hard to interpret (including height of the clouds, etc...). The sun beeing very low, clearly the weather above your head has no importance at all (even if often correlated to the regional weather).
If others did observe the same thing than me, thanks for sharing your opinion.
There is a little discussion of this further up the thread, but in short yes, I have considered the position of the sun at eclipse time when making the assessments.
Since it is mostly low loud up to heights of around 2km, you only need to be around 8km west of the cloud for the sun to be above it. I would agree that just a little west of the ranges is not the ideal place to be, but 60km inland (which is the position I have been describing) has generally been clear of any effect of cloud over the ranges, but there are some days when it does extend inland far enough that it would be a problem.
. I love the quote attributted to Charles Dudley Warner (also attributed to Mark Twain) about the New England weather which many of you probably know. 
