Tabloid media.

[Merlin66 (Ken)]

Being in the “at risk” demongraphic Where the death rate is >15% we’ll steer clear of risk areas.

[PeterM]

Originally Posted by Peter Ward

I'm still going for 300 in Australia by Tuesday and 600 by next weekend....

I note Oz COVID19 deaths remain static...and the fact that about 40,000 people have died from less "interesting" causes since this thing started in Oz.....hence have not had any media attention.

Seriously Peter, this far into your thread and this is all you have, a couple of links and "I'm still going for 300 & 600" and "more people die from" .. put it on sports bet you might just win big.
Toilet rolls .... huh who gives a toss, try buying hand sanitizer, something, my son Tyler's house (that's his name) could really use at the moment, can't even get any from anywhere. So if you think this is one big beat up that little fact there.... oh forget it what the heck. Thanks for your well wishes by the way.......I will stop feeding you now, you have every right to an opinion. My very best wishes to you and your loved ones in the coming weeks/months if you are proven wrong, not that your opinion will change/mean anything. Best to all on IIS.

[lazjen (Chris)]

Originally Posted by Peter Ward

I'm still going for 300 in Australia by Tuesday and 600 by next weekend....

Note that the 300/600 number you're estimating is close to the doubling every 3 - 5 days - which we've seen elsewhere. Ignoring the under-testing that's likely, we're maybe a couple weeks behind what's happening in Europe. I'm hoping that with the expanded awareness we might be able to slow down our doubling.

The aim is to flatten the curve as much as possible and to give the health system as much chance as possible to handle things. The longer it takes to double, the greater the chance for those currently infected to recover and the gap between total and recovered can reduce.

Btw, I think those numbers will be close to correct, unless they start changing the testing coverage.

[SimmoW (SIMON)]

One forecast by a respected Australian expert. FB link included.

Maybe Peter you can use this to help adjust your no doubt large investment portfolio (go short on public welfare linked businesses and long on mask and body bag manufacturers like 3M), then use the profits to invest in a few mortgagee sales soon to occur. Strike while the iron is hot!

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?sto...91604&sfnsn=mo

[graham.hobart (Graham stevens)]

Speaking from the front line as an emergency doctor

1/ the mortality reported in Italy and China is close to 20% for the over 65's
also with comorbities such as diabetes and asthma
2/Children and younger people seem to be spared=for now

3/ people walking around supermarkets with masks is not helpful- even in my hospital we are stretched with supplies and people keep nicking them

4/ Yesterday I saw a query case and although he was in a negative pressure room, I doubled gloved gowned and masked four or five times before he was moved to a dedicated area outside of DEM. Me plus two nurses and his partner burning through the commodities.
5/cases are under reported by a huge amount, public health does simply not have the capacity in each state to establish a base line let alone swab every one with a sore throat
6/my hospital just changed two emergency short stay wards into respiratory wards, and ordered 32 more ventilators.
7/no one in my profession is under any illusion that this is a **** fest- In Italy they could not treat other emergencies as the whole place was saturated with respiratory cases-including trauma and heart conditions etc
8/ I was teaching medical students recently and mentioned that in the 50's Polio epidemics there were not enough "iron lungs" so students took turns bagging patients for hours at a time- ,this may actually happen again .
My advice, stock up, keep away from crowds, wait it out. I cannot do that myself but wish you all the best.
https://threader.app/thread/1237142891077697538

[xelasnave]

Originally Posted by graham.hobart

Speaking from the front line as an emergency doctor

1/ the mortality reported in Italy and China is close to 20% for the over 65's
also with comorbities such as diabetes and asthma
2/Children and younger people seem to be spared=for now

3/ people walking around supermarkets with masks is not helpful- even in my hospital we are stretched with supplies and people keep nicking them

4/ Yesterday I saw a query case and although he was in a negative pressure room, I doubled gloved gowned and masked four or five times before he was moved to a dedicated area outside of DEM. Me plus two nurses and his partner burning through the commodities.
5/cases are under reported by a huge amount, public health does simply not have the capacity in each state to establish a base line let alone swab every one with a sore throat
6/my hospital just changed two emergency short stay wards into respiratory wards, and ordered 32 more ventilators.
7/no one in my profession is under any illusion that this is a **** fest- In Italy they could not treat other emergencies as the whole place was saturated with respiratory cases-including trauma and heart conditions etc
8/ I was teaching medical students recently and mentioned that in the 50's Polio epidemics there were not enough "iron lungs" so students took turns bagging patients for hours at a time- ,this may actually happen again .
My advice, stock up, keep away from crowds, wait it out. I cannot do that myself but wish you all the best.
https://threader.app/thread/1237142891077697538

Thanks for your valuable input Grahame.
I presume your concern re masks is from a supply aspect? Would it not make sense for all to wear masks...a cloth or such?
Alex

[Tropo-Bob (Bob)]

Originally Posted by axle01

A doctor who graduated with a master's degree and who worked in Shenzhen Hospital (Guangdong Province, China) sent the following notes on Coronavirus for guidance:
1. If you have a runny nose and sputum, you have a common cold
2. Coronavirus pneumonia is a dry cough with no runny nose.
3. This new virus is not heat-resistant and will be killed by a temperature of just 26/27 degrees. It hates the Sun.
4. If someone sneezes with it, it takes about 10 feet before it drops to the ground and is no longer airborne.
5. If it drops on a metal surface it will live for at least 12 hours - so if you come into contact with any metal surface - wash your hands as soon as you can with a bacterial soap.
6. On fabric it can survive for 6-12 hours. normal laundry detergent will kill it.
7. Drinking warm water is effective for all viruses. Try not to drink liquids with ice.
8. Wash your hands frequently as the virus can only live on your hands for 5-10 minutes, but - a lot can happen during that time - you can rub your eyes, pick your nose unwittingly and so on.
9. You should also gargle as a prevention. A simple solution of salt in warm water will suffice.
10. Can't emphasise enough - drink plenty of water!
THE SYMPTOMS
1. It will first infect the throat, so you'll have a sore throat lasting 3/4 days
2. The virus then blends into a nasal fluid that enters the trachea and then the lungs, causing pneumonia. This takes about 5/6 days further.
3. With the pneumonia comes high fever and difficulty in breathing.
4. The nasal congestion is not like the normal kind. You feel like you're drowning. It's imperative you then seek immediate attention.
SPREAD THE WORD - PLEASE SHARE.

That's the most useful information that I have seen to date. Thanks for sharing.

[graham.hobart (Graham stevens)]

The problem is - community infection is only established with close physical contact and droplet spread for now , aerosols are being avoided just in case.
If every one wears a mask A OK but there won't be enough
hand wash masks and avoid public areas, these are common sense things we should all be doing
Masks for people pending test results, with symptoms and in vocational contact with these.
WHO and Aus guidelines currently classify risk as
international travel within last 14 days with coryzal like illness sore throat cough fevers fatigue etc
or
close contact with known case
or
unexplained community acquired pneumonia
although once the community transmission is established the international travel bit will be inconsequential.

[xelasnave]

Originally Posted by Deeno

I think he was referring to the wrong Peter....
Surely..?

That's what I am thinking.

It would be a good idea for us to consider what is probably going on...the emotions that are stretched.

I am sure everyone is very worried... About the situation from dieing, losing jobs, to losing your nest egg ...you can make a list.

Each person's fear or concern will manifest in different ways and the predictable result will be arguments.

I am very concerned. When in a fix I tend to become flippant. Others will be analytical some defensive the reactions will definitely be different...so it is a time to try and realise it is in these stressful times you will observe different ways of managing concerns.

Peace to all.
Alex

[GrahamL]

Graham sincere thanx for your dedication .


Treatment, observations , and improvements hopefully are evolving and being shared thoughout the medical communuity .


I guess we can all just try to follow the advice for now and try and be nice to each other ,, yeah ?


I noticed a globemaster doing a couple of low fly ins at the local airport yesterday , didnt stop in , moving south .

[h0ughy (David)]

Sorry guys but some are too sensitive and some extremely insensitive read RB Post's again very clearly as this thread is now closed