6-ton satellite will crash back to Earth

[scagman (John)]

Originally Posted by TinyBlueDot

If any of it drops on Canberra, hoping it'll put in a nice new skylight on the big building on the hill Pity the occupants have gone home for the weekend......

[Danack (Dan Ackroyd)]

Originally Posted by glenc

This prediction for Melbourne http://www.heavens-above.com/PassSum...&alt=0&tz=AEST
does not seem to agree with the map. (click all)

I'm pretty sure that that page is assuming the satellite is still in orbit and not changing orbit/velocity.

It seems to be only the page at http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html that is showing the predicted orbits for around the time when it is expected stop orbiting completely.

[tonycynic]

From http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html
Note: Possible reentry locations lie anywhere along the blue and yellow ground track.

So that covers how much of the planet?

[Spanrz (Brett)]

Can anyone confirm some passes for me. (Melbourne)

There is a direct overhead pass at a peak of 7:44am, from NW to SE
And another at 9:15am very very low about 2-4 degrees in the SW.
(data from Heavens Above TLE and put in to Starry Night)

The initial data that Starry Night uses, tells me the first pass is at 6:44am peaking about 8 degrees
The second pass is peaking at 8:16am SW at 23 degrees.

How do I know which is correct?
I am guessing that the Starry Night is an older update.

[glenc (Glen)]

See post 37. Looks like 7:42am Saturday for Melbourne

[GeoffW1 (Geoff)]

Originally Posted by Waxing_Gibbous

I hope it hits my house.
I hate my house.

[Shep]

How will they deliver the 2 hour beforehand warnings if it looks like QLD might get some debris? Will it just be a case of too bad if your sleeping and blissfully unaware and a 160kg piece of satellite crashes through your roof and onto you in bed?

[glenc (Glen)]

They are now saying 1:16pm today AEST give or take 5 hours. (8am to 6pm)

[TinyBlueDot (John)]

Thanks for the updates Glen.
Looks like a day to do a bit of pottering about in the garden....and looking up
cheers
John

[mishku]

just heading down round tassie now, next pass (will probably fly over us in melbourne) in 80 or so minutes

[sheeny (Al)]

Latest update: 11:04am AEST to 17:04pm AEST. Very cloudy here though unfortunately.

Al.

[glenc (Glen)]

It passes to the west of NZ before the predicted reentry then across the USA and Canada after it.

[stephenb (Stephen)]

Originally Posted by Waxing_Gibbous

I hope it hits my house.
I hate my house.

+1

Thanks for the updates. Glen. http://www.iceinspace.com.au/forum/....s/thumbsup.gif

[Spanrz (Brett)]

I'm hoping for the 3:18-3:24pm pass
Yes Glen, great updates!

EDIT: Found TLE data from idb.com.au (via another forum) - references http://www.tle.info/data/TLE.ZIP

[koputai (Jason)]

The problem with TLE's and sites like heavens-above is that the orbital parameters of a decaying satellite are constantly changing. They should give a very approximate idea, but not only the time changes as the craft slows down, but the longitude of its position as well, as the Earth keeps on spinning underneath the satellite.

Cheers,
Jason.

[Daveskywill (David)]

I've heard that UARS is slowing down it's decent and speed.

So I guess that changed some things. And it will take longer before it

land-falls.

http://www.space.com/13042-nasa-uars...pact-zone.html

There's the link I found.

David

[AdrianF (Adrian)]

Cloudy here so cant see anything.

Adrian

[mithrandir (Andrew)]

Calsky's latest calculation has it reentering around 15:12 AEST a thousand or so K's south of Perth.

[sheeny (Al)]

Originally Posted by mithrandir

Calsky's latest calculation has it reentering around 15:12 AEST a thousand or so K's south of Perth.

Yep... agress with this:

http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html

13:10 to 17:10 AEST is the latest revision.

Al.

[glenc (Glen)]

On the last predicted orbit it goes over Africa, the southern Indian Ocean and the SE corner of Australia at about 3:20 pm AEST.
It could crash near Sydney or Melbourne.