I hope we won’t get it as bad as Italians - family members are not allowed to see their loved ones in hospitals and some die in hospitals alone without having family on their side. Then bodies are cremated without family consent and families do not really know what happens to those in hospitals. People are not allowed to leave towns, so a number of people with needs became isolated in their homes and are left without family support. Sounds like some horrible war movie but it’s true.
I am worried that we are far from reaching the peak in this country.
I'm also following the Department of health website with some interest as they have no interest in headlines....as they used to say in Dragnet, "just the facts, m'am , just the facts"
27 cases have recovered. So the actives cases in Oz are at 170. I'd suggest it's too early to tell whether recovery will outweigh new cases at this point.
Australian Dept of health and welfare state:
"The leading cause of death for all older Australians was coronary heart disease—51,600 deaths between 2014 and 2016, followed by dementia and Alzheimer disease (37,400 deaths), cerebrovascular disease (29,800), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (19,500) and lung cancer (19,200)"
or about 520 people a day for the 2014/16 period. COVID19 deaths remain at 3 in one month (or so)
I think it is not so much the deaths Peter, the significant concern is the economy. Basically putting a stop to it.....and everyone’s earning ability. Think about those poor folk with no holiday pay or savings up their sleeves but bills to pay. Thy will not have an income for the period of any widespread shutdowns.
In my line of work (local gov) we had a meeting yesterday, the tone the subject matter was presented in was fairly dire.
I wwouldn’t be surprised if by next week schools were closed (speaking to a local teacher they have been advised by principal to prepare a weeks worth of online classes over weekend) and ‘services’ were scaled back to essential only.
I also hear (from a good source) that ambulance transports were up by 80% yesterday in Victoria......but hospital emergency room admissions were at a normal level.....what does that mean????
That's 250 deaths in one 24-hour period, in one country.
I think the only prudent thing for Australia to do right now is to take any and all measures necessary to try to prevent an outbreak here of similar magnitude.
Having worked as a Paramedic, I would suggest that the increase in transports could be two fold - it could be facilities clearing patients who are able to be safely discharged ahead of the projected surge to allow the facilities extra surge capacity if required. The other factor is that not all patients transported by paramedics are taken to an ED, the fact that ED admissions were static does suggest that most were not going to ED nad in fact may be going the other way.
I would be leaning to an increase in discharge to allow for increased surge capacity in the facilities. As anyone working in the health sector will be aware, there is a surge capacity that exists routinely and is used to cope with a MCI event. I would be expecting that the current event will exceed the existing surge capacity due to the protracted nature of the event.
Having worked as a Paramedic, I would suggest that the increase in transports could be two fold - it could be facilities clearing patients who are able to be safely discharged ahead of the projected surge to allow the facilities extra surge capacity if required. The other factor is that not all patients transported by paramedics are taken to an ED, the fact that ED admissions were static does suggest that most were not going to ED nad in fact may be going the other way.
I would be leaning to an increase in discharge to allow for increased surge capacity in the facilities. As anyone working in the health sector will be aware, there is a surge capacity that exists routinely and is used to cope with a MCI event. I would be expecting that the current event will exceed the existing surge capacity due to the protracted nature of the event.
My 32yo son with CP lives in supported living. A serious chest infection from this virus would likely be life ending for him even if he could get the best hospital care. So yes I have a lot to lose. People like you are our front line, I have great respect for you. At a time like this, in your line of work self awareness will make a huge difference to outcomes. If the media is disturbing the overall community enough to check their health when they develop a sore throat, cough, mild fevers before they go to work especially in our aged/disability care then so be it. This is not the time for a "she'll be right" or "soldier on" mentality.
Peter you have my best possible wishes for the safety of your son.
I'm not sure where those numbers come from. For 2018 - the most recent year for which processed figures are available - the ABS quotes 158,493 registered deaths from all causes, which is 434 per day, on average.
The leading category (i.e. several diseases combined, not a single disease) is Ischaemic Heart Diseases, which caused 17,533 deaths or 48 deaths per day, on average.
These comparisons are, however, quite meaningless at this stage, especialy since it is very early days for COVID-19. The only way that this could be a useful comparison is to wait until COVID-19 has run its course and then calculate the mortality figures in retrospect.
For now, though there is considerable uncertainty, we can project what the mortality figures might be based on modelled scenarios derived from mortality rates so far recorded. That's where the maths becomes sobering when considering that this is a single disease that is additive to existing mortality causes.
No one knows for sure, but its not looking good.
While its true the daily death rate was moderating a couple of weeks ago, as China's control measures started to succeed in starving the virus, the "rest of the world" figures are only now starting to bite. And these figures always lag the true rates:
Most likely Australia is just a month or two behind other 1st world countries where the virus is taking hold. The more we slow the spread within cities, the better our healthcare and ICUs can give quality care to that small % that get really sick. If we don't do this, then overwhelmed hospitals = manyfold greater mortality unfortuantely.
Fortunately Australian healthcare has top of the line testing capability and its freely available to every Aussie regardless of their wealth. The good news if the % positive rate from the thousands of coronavirus tests done every week in Australia is currently extremely low.
The part about testing is actually incorrect Rob. We don't have an abundance of test kits, and testing is not freely available. You have to meet applied criteria in order to get tested. Our testing numbers are waaay behind many other countries', which is helping to keep our case numbers artificially low.
We do a few thousand tests every week, some countries are doing 10-20,000 tests per day; South Korea is a good example, and being able
to isolate all the positive cases has resulted in hugely less new cases and deaths, as their recent figures clearly show.
The U.S. is an example of the same dodgy case data as ours, as they have up to now done almost no testing, probably due to having very few test kits available. They are listed as having just over 2000 cases, but it is widely believed that the true figure is waaay higher than that.
raymo
Last edited by raymo; 14-03-2020 at 03:05 PM.
Reason: moore text
So 126 to 156 to 200 is 25% then 30% increase in daily numbers here if I am right. 17% increase yesterday in Italy but with bigger numbers. So doesnt need an Einstein to see where this IS heading. Im flabbergasted op is still quoting flu numbers and coronary deaths etc.
The part about testing is actually incorrect Rob. We don't have an abundance of test kits, and testing is not freely available. You have to meet applied criteria in order to get tested. Our testing numbers are waaay behind many other countries', which is helping to keep our case numbers artificially low.
And.. the premise of this thread is way out of left field. According to the WHO, the virus is largely out of control in Europe (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51876784), probably in the US (who knows) and it will probably do untold damage in the less developed nations. As the graph that Rob posted shows (#48), this is not a beat up - it is deadly serious and very upsetting to so many of us.
The part about testing is actually incorrect Rob. We don't have an abundance of test kits, and testing is not freely available. You have to meet applied criteria in order to get tested. Our testing numbers are waaay behind many other countries', which is helping to keep our case numbers artificially low.
We do a few thousand tests every week, some countries are doing 10-20,000 tests per day; South Korea is a good example, and being able
to isolate all the positive cases has resulted in hugely less new cases and deaths, as their recent figures clearly show.
The U.S. is an example of the same dodgy case data as ours, as they have up to now done almost no testing, probably due to having very few test kits available. They are listed as having just over 2000 cases, but it is widely believed that the true figure is waaay higher than that.
raymo
In Qld at least Raymo, testing is freely available for those that need it, capacity to test is increasing each week, and the current rate of % positive results is extremely small. Its not appropriate medicine to test every individual that feels they should be tested. Appropriate testing means your Dr recommends based on your clinical state, recent risks, etc
A doctor who graduated with a master's degree and who worked in Shenzhen Hospital (Guangdong Province, China) sent the following notes on Coronavirus for guidance:
1. If you have a runny nose and sputum, you have a common cold
2. Coronavirus pneumonia is a dry cough with no runny nose.
3. This new virus is not heat-resistant and will be killed by a temperature of just 26/27 degrees. It hates the Sun.
4. If someone sneezes with it, it takes about 10 feet before it drops to the ground and is no longer airborne.
5. If it drops on a metal surface it will live for at least 12 hours - so if you come into contact with any metal surface - wash your hands as soon as you can with a bacterial soap.
6. On fabric it can survive for 6-12 hours. normal laundry detergent will kill it.
7. Drinking warm water is effective for all viruses. Try not to drink liquids with ice.
8. Wash your hands frequently as the virus can only live on your hands for 5-10 minutes, but - a lot can happen during that time - you can rub your eyes, pick your nose unwittingly and so on.
9. You should also gargle as a prevention. A simple solution of salt in warm water will suffice.
10. Can't emphasise enough - drink plenty of water!
THE SYMPTOMS
1. It will first infect the throat, so you'll have a sore throat lasting 3/4 days
2. The virus then blends into a nasal fluid that enters the trachea and then the lungs, causing pneumonia. This takes about 5/6 days further.
3. With the pneumonia comes high fever and difficulty in breathing.
4. The nasal congestion is not like the normal kind. You feel like you're drowning. It's imperative you then seek immediate attention.
SPREAD THE WORD - PLEASE SHARE.
In Qld at least Raymo, testing is freely available for those that need it, capacity to test is increasing each week, and the current rate of % positive results is extremely small.
But for now much longer?
Australian stocks of coronavirus testing kits 'rapidly deteriorating', says chief medical officer
Depends if what you call a "kit" is the collection swabs, transport media, PPE for collection staff, skilled collector, or the lab reagents, lab staff, etc.
No denying any of these items may be produced in China or affected by Covid travel disruptions, but again, if the spread of the virus is slowed, then the rate of consumption of these items (and the entire health system) is better able to cope.
Fortunately testing providers don't panic buy collection swabs like people at my local Woolies buy toilet paper
What? No hoarding of toilet paper!? He can't be right
BTW I see our Home Affairs minister is "feeling much better" already.
BTW I see NSW had it's biggest
increase in daily numbers today. You didn't mention that...... ...I hope they are in good health, recover well and leave hospital asap.
Would it not make sense to require that in public everyone must wear a face mask.
Wearing clothing for modesty is enforced by law... is it unreasonable to require a little more clothing in the form of a mask..you know you can't leave the house without pants and a mask....as I understand things a mask offers only a little protection from picking it up but perhaps of much more value by limiting the damage from folk coughing from their side.
It's not only the number of test kits that is an issue. A mate has flu-like symptoms and his GP had him tested. The results will take a week to come back, rather than the typical 2 days for pathology. Of course he is taking at cautious approach and is self-isolating. That's a week that his job won't be done. Multiply that by the number of tests and the impact of the delay will be huge. And that's without considering how many people won't self-isolate correctly.
BTW I see NSW had it's biggest
Increase in daily numbers today. You didn't mention that. ...I hope they are in good health and recover well. You seem to use the numbers that suit you and disregard other numbers...funny that.
I'm still going for 300 in Australia by Tuesday and 600 by next weekend....
I note Oz COVID19 deaths remain static...and the fact that about 40,000 people have died from less "interesting" causes since this thing started in Oz.....hence have not had any media attention.
