Mag 4.9 earthquake in North Korea possible nuclear test

[gary]

Both South Korean and Japansese authorities and the US Geological Survey have measured
an earthquake in Kilju county, North Korea, where the Punggye-ri test site is located,
at a depth of approximately 1km.

Reports are the quake measured between magnitude 4.9 and 5.2 and there is
speculation as to whether the North Koreans have detonated another nuclear device.

Story here -
http://www.smh.com.au/world/fake-qua...212-2eagi.html

[Astro_Bot]

Now confirmed as a nuclear test, 6 - 7 kT. North Korean state media claims the device was "miniaturised", which analysts are saying equates to being small enough to be fitted as a warhead on a ballistic missile.

If you follow the trajectory of developments, it doesn't lead to a good place. Regime Change anyone? And remember what happened last time someone said that? Still, there may be no other option, given sanctions seem to do little to nothing to arrest NK's militaristic designs.

In case there was any doubt in which direction those designs are aimed:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-02-0...attack/4502654

[Shark Bait (Stu)]

China will have to lean on North Korea's leaders. They aren't paying attention to anyone else.

Iran at least pretends to be developing nuclear technology for peaceful purposes.

If North Korea manage to get a nuclear warhead on a ballistic missile they have made it clear that it will be pointing at America.

Interesting times.....

[tonybarry (Tony)]

I was born in 1959 and grew up with the spectre of world atomic war ... by the mid 1990s it had faded away with SALTIII and the dismantling of the former Soviet Union.

The return of atomic war looks to be quite possible with this new kid on the block, who is apparently less than thirty years old and keen to prove his mojo is as big as anyone else's mojo.

I earnestly hope that this does not create the next arms race. Nobody will win. We will all lose - and future generation will wear the cost.

Regards,
Tony Barry

[entity62]

" Regime Change anyone" like in Iraq ( nice place now ), maybe Regime Change like Afghanistan (nice place) Regime Change in Syria..

How about we keep the out of other countries problems.. WAR IS STUPID, and ONLY sheep follow the wars.

Darrell

[Astro_Bot]

Originally Posted by entity62

" Regime Change anyone" like in Iraq ( nice place now ), maybe Regime Change like Afghanistan (nice place) Regime Change in Syria..

How about we keep the out of other countries problems.. WAR IS STUPID, and ONLY sheep follow the wars.

Darrell

Selctive quoting isn't exactly fair - and I was already eluding to post-change problems when I said:

Originally Posted by Astro_Bot

And remember what happened last time someone said that? Still, there may be no other option ...

A key point:

Originally Posted by entity62

How about we keep the out of other countries problems

How quickly the memory fades. Iraq invaded Kuwait (and murdered many of its citizens). Afghanistan was home to Al Qaeda (and did similarly in addition to 9/11). Germany/Japan in WWII? "Peace in our times". Yup, that worked. If only problems stayed in their respective countries of origin. Ah, but largely, they don't. Particularly, ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads run by a regime with the stated intent of destroying its enemies at the first available opportunity isn't something to take lightly.

If only the world was as nice as some people would like it to be. But it isn't.

By the way, we're not even in Syria, but the regime is occasionally massacring unarmed civilians. Not to worry. It'll be fine. Just switch off the brain and watch more reality TV ...

[entity62]

The UN Charter's prohibition of member states of the UN attacking other UN member states is central to the purpose for which the UN was founded in the wake of the destruction of World War II: to prevent war. This overriding concern is also reflected in the Nuremberg Trials' concept of a crime against peace "starting or waging a war against the territorial integrity, political independence or sovereignty of a state, or in violation of international treaties or agreements..." (crime against peace), which was held to be the crime that makes all war crimes possible.
Afghanistan admitted 1946
Iraq admitted 1945
Nth Korea admitted 1991
Syria admitted 1945

Darrell

[Larryp (Laurie)]

Originally Posted by entity62

The UN Charter's prohibition of member states of the UN attacking other UN member states is central to the purpose for which the UN was founded in the wake of the destruction of World War II: to prevent war. This overriding concern is also reflected in the Nuremberg Trials' concept of a crime against peace "starting or waging a war against the territorial integrity, political independence or sovereignty of a state, or in violation of international treaties or agreements..." (crime against peace), which was held to be the crime that makes all war crimes possible.
Afghanistan admitted 1946
Iraq admitted 1945
Nth Korea admitted 1991
Syria admitted 1945

Darrell

So we let them zap us first?

[Astro_Bot]

Originally Posted by entity62

The UN Charter's prohibition of member states of the UN attacking other UN member states is central to the purpose for which the UN was founded in the wake of the destruction of World War II: to prevent war. This overriding concern is also reflected in the Nuremberg Trials' concept of a crime against peace "starting or waging a war against the territorial integrity, political independence or sovereignty of a state, or in violation of international treaties or agreements..." (crime against peace), which was held to be the crime that makes all war crimes possible.
Afghanistan admitted 1946
Iraq admitted 1945
Nth Korea admitted 1991
Syria admitted 1945

Darrell

Was there a point in there somewhere?

OK, I'll guess as to the point - forgive me if I guess wrong.

Murder is against the law. Therefore, remove the arrest power of police and, what the heck, disband the police altogether while we're at it, because murder is against the law, and all citizens comply with the law, therefore it can't happen. Forget about "safe zones" on trains, lighted walkways on campuses, rape crisis centres, locking your doors and windows, women not walking alone at night, etc. All robbery, assault and rape are against the law, and all citizens comply with the law all the time, so there's no need.

Of course, the people getting robbed, assaulted, raped and murdered might have a different idea.

[entity62]

Just because that tin pot country Nth Korea, has detonated a bomb, does not give anyone the write to disarm/attack/KILL the citizens, of said country.
Remember there is ONLY one country in the world who has used nukes on another country. All the other nuke countries use then as a deterant. WHY can not tin pot Nth Korea, has some as a deterent.
The real enemy of the world used NUKES..

Darrell

[Astro_Bot]

Originally Posted by entity62

Just because that tin pot country Nth Korea, has detonated a bomb, does not give anyone the write to disarm/attack/KILL the citizens, of said country.
Remember there is ONLY one country in the world who has used nukes on another country. All the other nuke countries use then as a deterant. WHY can not tin pot Nth Korea, has some as a deterent.
The real enemy of the world used NUKES..

Darrell

Why can't North Korea have nukes? Oh, boy, I'm guessing you've never studied geopolitics or history.

The real enemy of the world used NUKES.

The USA is the real enemy of the world, then? That's your thesis? And that's why North Korea should be nuclear armed?

This is no longer worth my time. You're deluded beyond hope.

[wasyoungonce (Brendan)]

Originally Posted by entity62

Just because that tin pot country Nth Korea, has detonated a bomb, does not give anyone the write to disarm/attack/KILL the citizens, of said country.
Remember there is ONLY one country in the world who has used nukes on another country. All the other nuke countries use then as a deterant. WHY can not tin pot Nth Korea, has some as a deterent.
The real enemy of the world used NUKES.. Darrell

Because NK has a history of despotic provocation and policies of subvert and overt violence: the sinking of South Korean Navy ship by submarine torpedo by NK; The shelling of South Korean villages by NK for no reason; The NK government connection with international drug smuggling (for money and cash flow); the firing of a missile over another sovereign nations land; NK abductions of foreign nationals in covert operations; NK continued massive military build up; while it's populace starves!


Lets not forget NK nuclear dealings with Iran & Pakistan and sales of missiles to Yemen.

So sit back sit enjoy the show NK is a as crazy as a half lit firecracker now lets ramp that up with atomic weapons......what's the worst that could happen. Least being a nuclear arms race across Asia the worst is ....from a crazy state?

[tonybarry (Tony)]

My suspicion is that Nth Korea does not intend to provide a deterrent with its nukes ... it intends to use them.

Evidence for this suspicion is well documented by wasyoungonce.

The government is a young person with exceptional powers to command resources of the state and to enforce heavy penalties on the citizenry if they refuse to do his bidding.

The Nth Korean leader appears to be quite out-of-touch with both international politics and his own people. Out-of-touch people can frequently make gross error of judgement simply due to an incorrect appraisal of reality.

My estimation of the danger that Nth Korea will instigate nuclear war ... is higher than between the USSR and the USA in 1963 / Bay of Pigs. If Nth Korea obtains more fissile material I think they will use it on military targets.

I earnestly hope I am wrong.

Regards,
Tony Barry

[strongmanmike (Michael)]

Sorry guys but there is mountains more evidence that the World as a whole is in far more danger due to the insidious and relentless march of man made climate change than a rouge country with a small immature nuclear weapon who are just trying to look tough.

Mike

[Stardrifter_WA]

Originally Posted by tonybarry

My suspicion is that Nth Korea does not intend to provide a deterrent with its nukes ... it intends to use them.

Evidence for this suspicion is well documented by wasyoungonce.

The government is a young person with exceptional powers to command resources of the state and to enforce heavy penalties on the citizenry if they refuse to do his bidding.

The Nth Korean leader appears to be quite out-of-touch with both international politics and his own people. Out-of-touch people can frequently make gross error of judgement simply due to an incorrect appraisal of reality.

My estimation of the danger that Nth Korea will instigate nuclear war ... is higher than between the USSR and the USA in 1963 / Bay of Pigs. If Nth Korea obtains more fissile material I think they will use it on military targets.

I earnestly hope I am wrong.

Regards,
Tony Barry

Sorry Tony, I doubt that will ever happen. For a greater understanding of this issue read the BBC News (a credible news source) article "What is driving North Korea's test plan? at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21231204

You have to remember that North Korea has been 'technically' at war with the US for 50 years, (see: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10165796) They simply want a deterrent (and bargaining chip) and are unlikely to use such a weapon, despite the rhetoric. It would be suicide, and I doubt any Government would be that mad to bring about the destruction of human civilisation.

Just remember MAD means "mutually assured destruction". One nuke from North Korea would bring a rain of hell down upon them. There would be no winners. And that is why it is unlikely, although not certain, that there will be a nuke war any time soon.

Cheers Peter

[Astro_Bot]

Mike, in the long run view, you are right. But that's no excuse not to address issues such as this. Public policy is capable of being multi-faceted, nuanced and intricate. Whether or not it is, in execution, depends on our leaders, but we're obviously capable of implementing programs to improve indigenous health and education while simultaneously addressing water conservation ... or import duties ... or telecommunications ... or a multitude of other things.

I can't see a valid reason to ignore or diminish the importance of dealing with North Korea. I'm not suggesting we immediately draw up invasion plans (or ever, really) but the last couple of decades have shown that the problem is highly resistant to sanctions and diplomatic measures and continues to worsen.

[Larryp (Laurie)]

Originally Posted by Stardrifter_WA

Sorry Tony, I doubt that will ever happen. For a greater understanding of this issue read the BBC News (a credible news source) article "What is driving North Korea's test plan? at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21231204

You have to remember that North Korea has been 'technically' at war with the US for 50 years, (see: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10165796) They simply want a deterrent (and bargaining chip) and are unlikely to use such a weapon, despite the rhetoric. It would be suicide, and I doubt any Government would be that mad to bring about the destruction of human civilisation.

Just remember MAD means "mutually assured destruction". One nuke from North Korea would bring a rain of hell down upon them. There would be no winners. And that is why it is unlikely, although not certain, that there will be a nuke war any time soon.

Cheers Peter

I hope you are right, Peter, but I wouldn't trust the kim Jong-Un as far as I could throw him-and that's not very far!

[Stardrifter_WA]

Originally Posted by Larryp

I hope you are right, Peter, but I wouldn't trust the kim Jong-Un as far as I could throw him-and that's not very far!

Laurie, I hope I am right too I am certainly not certain about it, by any stretch of the imagination. However, the threat of nuclear war has been around for a long time, and it hasn't happened........yet. I just don't get so excited by the threat any more. If it happens, nothin' I can do about it.

Frankly, I think the planet faces a more daunting outcome than nuclear war, and that is the rapid expansion of the human race and its consumption of non renewable resources, let alone the degradation of the environment, which has serious consequences for food production. Judgement day is coming..........it's just the timing that isn't fixed in stone.

Sadly, I think I am too old now to bother worrying about it any more. Certainly sleep better that way!

Cheers Peter

[entity62]

Time too reply since the Prozac has worn off, and i'm becoming deluded again.
I have an answer for all the links posted, by Brendan, and i will show you RG why usa is no better.

Sink of ship and land attack. Nth Korea IS still at war so military targets are legit targets. (Second Iraq war was over WMD, which NEVER existed, a british Intelligence Officer told there parliment so, and commited suicide after.So the US, Brit, Polish and Australian, went to war over stuff all which has left how many dead to date)
Drug smuggling, the article say's that NO Nth Korean was convicted of smuggling. ( A US goverment dept, supplied MILITARY style weapons to Mexican drug cartels over a 5 year period, which in turn has left innocent Mexicans DEAD. The Taliban had removed over 80% (UN figures) of the Opium growing in Afganistan, now since invasion the Opium crops are at there highest level (UN figures).)
Kidnapping of foreign nationals, the Nth Korean govt has appoligised for the kidnapping and repated the poor souls. ( Chinese muslim prisoners in Guantanamo Bay how are NOT terrorist, but can not be sent back to China, and many other prisoners there who did stuff all but can not be sent back to there own countries because of internal conflict. They were KIDNAPPED)
The Japanese know the trajectory of the rocket before hand. Like ALL countries let other know the trajectory of rocket fire..
Famine. The article talks about the USSR pulling out and asking for its aid back. It also talks about Flood and Drought. these alone make famine a real possability. But what about ALL the UN sanctions, which stops them from buying agriculture tools.
Hypocrisy. There are some Western backed countries who NEVER have followed UN resolutions, and the West have NEVER sanctioned them for it. NEVER. One of these countries has its own clandestine nuke pile..
Time for some Prozac me think, getting very duluded.

Darrell

[wasyoungonce (Brendan)]

Your quite entitled to your views and I agree with the matter that the USA, Australia, Brittan, China and Russia have been no better in their foreign policies in modern history wrt the gulf-war 2 wmd war or what ever anyone wants to call it.

There we no valid terrorist harbouring or WMD grounds to attack Iraq. There were grounds to dispose of a despot that practised genocide gassed his own people with mustard gas but hey this point was lost.

But all this is OT...it's NK we are focusing on here. If the war is in fact never over then NK should be a wasteland by now, they would have lost. However we have a armistice do we not..or shall we say an armistice on one side not the other...instead one party is supposed to fight by Marquis of Queensbury rules while the other is hitting below the belt here! This cannot go on without retaliation or ending this in some manner. The point saying its all right for NK to attack legit military targets is as the war is not over is wrong on 2 counts: Armistice mentioned above; and I didn't see a military base in the middle some small SK village getting pounded by NK artillery, without provocation...or maybe you will look at at this as SK civilians getting in the way of NK target shelling practice?

MacArthur was correct when the Chinese were massing on the Yalu river in China to cross to NK/SK. MacArthur wanted to SAC bomb them as they were a threat. Unfortunately MacArthur wanted to Nuclear SAC bomb them...which was of course unpalatable even then. So the Truman paused and fiddled and lives were lost...many lives.

The end result is an appeasement of a Stalinist regime and we all know well how good a leader Stalin was to his people. Fact here is the general NK population live in abject poverty yet their government has shown gross violations of UN decrees and is involved with other Nuclear ambitious countries that are also despotic.

Oh and a family member of mine was involved with the Pong Su at high legal level it is pretty obvious this was NK sanctioned drug running...amateurish at that. Yes drugs in Afghanistan is a real issue...the damn yanks could have paid them to plant whatever lets say potatoes and buy it back from them and still be cheaper than trying to stop opium. I suppose the British couldn't control the place I don't know why the yanks or Australia thought they could. However Afghanistan was harbouring another despotic regime that did foster terrorism on an international scale. Of course this point is lost isn't it. Still that said Afghanistan is a better place today than it has been for many many years ...womean can get an education.

I would have supported an invasion to Afghanistan before any Iraq invasion and still do due to the nature of the Taliban and their harbouring of terrorism. Now days we find the real culprit behind all this is Pakistan...not Afghanastain.

As for the rocket over other another nationals land...if this was over Australia ..how would you feel? This is the same as turning on targeting radar against an foreign aircraft...it's just not done and can lead to war as it is a provocative act. It's only needs one mishap..we know how good NK is at engineering rockets...maybe 1 in 10 actually take off so this could have been the one small trigger if it fell on land in Japan or a US base???...it could/would be viewed as deliberate.

International politics is a tightrope walk, especially for some nations but to do so while firing guns blindfolded is asking for a fall. China and Russia have their own failures of backing the wrong people just as much as the Yanks. It is dreadful we went to the gulf war 2 I feel ashamed of official government involvement (not against out participants, troops, airmen ....I was part of 75SQN hornets). I however fully agree with Gulf-war 1 it was for the right reasons, Kuwait was invaded was it not..

Anyway back OT.....NK is not trying to settle its issues peacefully it is sabre rattling. History has shown us this rattling leads to SK innocent deaths so now they sabre rattle with nuclear weapons.

Next thing Japan arms up with nuclear weapons in response....then SK then Indonesia then Australia.

As for sanctions causing NK starvation...yes there is a possiblilty of impact by sanctions but hey NK government can stop this right now (or say anytime in the last 20 years) but they choose to continue on a nuclear program that will ultimately lead to confrontation. Low an behold if a terrorist organisation gets hold of a nuclear weapon that NK sells for cash flow......there will be retribution like no other. Oh and the isotopes left from nuclear blasts pretty much tell where these weapons materials came from......so proof is reasonably easy to match if this unfortunately happens.

NK...is destabilising the world, how far they are bent on going? Who knows...lets hope they collapse like Russia before they get too far after all they do have inferior basic weaponry like tanks and aircraft but they do have a lot of troops in boots...they cannot fight a protracted war this is why they want nuclear weapons. Its time for the Chinese to stop NK and to stand up to their naughty funded child state.

Anyway FWIW.