I echo the comments about needing luck, enjoying whatever you get and not travelling far inland (anywhere off the sealed roads) without being *very* well prepared. But I love watching the weather, which is what this thread is for, so I'll keep going
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The family meteorologist is now staying with us, so these comments are marginally better informed, but still my own amateur assesment of conditions.
While the low pressure trough has moved offshore, there is a strong pressure gradient between it and the high pressure ridge forming along the coast, which is driving the strong winds today. And the effect of the trough is still lingering, with instability at higher altitudes combined with the strong easterly winds against the ranges allowing the significant cloud formation and heavy showers last night and this morning.
Sunday morning was a bit of an anomaly, with clear sky behind the trough before the easterly conditions re-established themselves afterwards. That's not what Wednesday morning will be like.
The pressure gradient should now flatten out a little over the next two days, so the wind on Wednesday will not be like today, but you can still expect some wind during the day. Not sure how much the calming effect overnight will have for eclipse morning.
As the trough moves properly away and the high pressure builds, the subsidence associated with that helps put a bit of a lid on the cloud formation, reducing the 'scattered showers' of this morning, to just 'isolated showers' by Wednesday. It should also mean that cloud extends inland less on Wednesday morning than it has today.
60km inland which as far as you can travel on sealed roads (if you can get past hoardes of others attempting the same thing) is not as far west as would be ideal, but in a stable easterly pattern it has been far enough to make a difference. That's what I'm betting on, so heading on a scouting trip now and will head inland Tuesday evening to setup. Mt Carbine is often not far enough, and many days is worse than the coast.
Since there's no guarantees in eclipse chasing. I think a reasonable estimate of the odds goes like this..
The dice will be rolled at midnight. If you're on the coast, you need it to show a 1 or 2 for clear skies, with 3 and 4 giving you progressively cloudier conditions but some view. If you're inland a 2,3,4 and even a 5 should give you a clear view. But of course you could still get unlucky with a 1 or 6!
Whether your particular location gets the lucky roll of the dice on Wednesday morning, nobody can say and nobody and no computer model will be able to say any more than that even Tuesday night. If you look at a satellite image around 5am you may be able to see which way the dice is loaded. But by then it'll be too late to move.
So we're all going to need luck! Hope you get some!
Phil
Think twice about driving inland
