However, after watching the patterns these last two weeks, I now expect to drive out along the Mulligan Highway the evening before the eclipse, stay beside the car through the night, and photograph the eclipse from 60km inland, at the end of that long straight stretch of road just before the Mulligan Highway turns to the north.
Good call Phil. For the week or so you've been analysing this, and from watching the webcams, it does seem like in general the coast has low fast moving clouds, while inland is often clearer. The low fast moving clouds are very difficult to escape, and may be very much down to luck.
Quote:
here is this mornings cloud but a woefull prediction forthe 14 - i hope thats wrong
It's been said before, but I'll say it again - there's basically no point in even worry about this now, even for comic value. The only forecast that matters is the one the night of the 13th, or anything else you can obtain throughout the night. Even 2-3 days out it will be interesting, but still useless. During previous eclipses, expert eclipse meteorologist Jay Anderson has often provided commentary on weather and model predictions from around 7 days out from the eclipse. On at least more than one occasion, I recall the forecast for E-day being dire, but then 2 days before all the models changed and the forecast was good! If anything, I would probably prefer a "bad" forecast this far out, under the assumption that it will be wrong :-)
thanks Phil for your insight - here is this mornings cloud but a woefull prediction forthe 14 - i hope thats wrong
thanks Dave.. i'm enjoying studying the weather this intensely in a completely new location. anybody listening to my advice should bear that in mind.. i have zero experience of weather forecasting in the tropics!
as you can see, the long-term forecasts are still bouncing around all over the place so i wouldn't place much meaning on them yet. it all depends how things settle down once this trough moves through/decays.
at the moment, i expect sat/sun will be the worst in FNQ (most of the effect of the trough is further west and south) but there could be enough moisture/instability around afterwards to keep causing issues for a few more days, even inland. even on this large scale question it's too early to say.. as for exactly what might happen at 6am on the day we're a long way from having any clue..
So I'm certainly not advising people on the coast to change their plans. However, for people staying in Mt Carbine and other locations close to the ranges, I think you do need a good Plan B. The ranges are typically cloudier than the coast or inland, and with the sun so low in the sky you would often have lost it in the clouds over these last two weeks. Some days are ok, and logistically you are in good spot able to quickly move east or west, but I would have a good plan of where you are headed if you wake up to cloudy skies early on eclipse morning (and leaving yourself plenty of time to make the move).
Good luck all.. we're going to need it!
Phil
Thanks for your thoughts Phil. I will be based in Cairns, but following this thread I have been thinking of heading inland. I don't know the area, but wouldn't the "mulligan hwy straight" you mention be as susceptible as Mt Carbine - if there is cloud at Mt Carbine wont it be in your way only a little while further east of it?
I and the family are only observing, no photography, so I had thought a beach near Port Douglas would be the go but inland is looking better by the day...
Thanks for your thoughts Phil. I will be based in Cairns, but following this thread I have been thinking of heading inland. I don't know the area, but wouldn't the "mulligan hwy straight" you mention be as susceptible as Mt Carbine - if there is cloud at Mt Carbine wont it be in your way only a little while further east of it?
I and the family are only observing, no photography, so I had thought a beach near Port Douglas would be the go but inland is looking better by the day...
You can easily get 30-50km further west from Mt Carbine on the Mulligan Hwy. Terry Cuttle has some scouting results in the main eclipse thread. On some days, that's plenty far enough to get clear of the cloud over the ranges. On other days you need to be further than it is possible to get. Keep watching and keep an open mind.. the weather pattern later this week could be a bit different I think.
How about Mareeba? It's about 40km inland. Would it have better chance than Cairns?
Quote:
Originally Posted by philiphart
Here are my thoughts after watching the weather in Cairns for a couple of weeks..
Similar to my experience with them in Victoria, I would rate the BoM and EU models as more useful/accurate than the US model, although you can usually interpret the same patterns in the US model, just with lower resolution. It is reassuring when they all agree, but as Jay Anderson and other meteorologists have said, the models tend to be more like each other than the real weather.
The BoM model is just a little bit hard to use at the moment as the only representation we have is a 'synthetic' infrared forecast image which makes picking out low cloud on night time and early morning images tricky. The EU model via yr.no is great as it gives you the breakdown in percentage for low/mid/high cloud, but unfortunately you can only get spot forecasts for specific locations.. there are no free websites that show a map of the cloud forecasts from this EU model.
Before I started this thread two weeks ago, on the basis of what I had read and heard till then, my plan was to setup where I am staying with family and friends at Newell Beach (just north of Port Douglas) and take whatever weather I got on the day. I understood that my odds there were as good there as anywhere else.
However, after watching the patterns these last two weeks, I now expect to drive out along the Mulligan Highway the evening before the eclipse, stay beside the car through the night, and photograph the eclipse from 60km inland, at the end of that long straight stretch of road just before the Mulligan Highway turns to the north.
There have been a few days where the models have predicted clear conditions along the coast, and generally been correct, so with a forecast like that I might stay on the beach (but ready to jump if the skies don't still look clear at ~2am). Otherwise, under the typical forecast pattern of some low clouds along the coast and ranges, and since photography is a lot less flexible than visually observing an eclipse, I expect to head inland as the chances have been better there most days. It's just a pity there are so few good roads and places to setup as 60km is not as far inland as I would like to be.. it's still a marginal proposition.
So for most people, the coast is probably still the right option and for visual observers even the ability to move a few hundred metres up or down along the beach might be enough to improve your chances and miss a poorly placed low cloud.
The inland option means doing a scouting trip in the days beforehand, and not sleeping much if at all the night before to find a space where you can pull off the road in plenty of time before sunrise.
So I'm certainly not advising people on the coast to change their plans. However, for people staying in Mt Carbine and other locations close to the ranges, I think you do need a good Plan B. The ranges are typically cloudier than the coast or inland, and with the sun so low in the sky you would often have lost it in the clouds over these last two weeks. Some days are ok, and logistically you are in good spot able to quickly move east or west, but I would have a good plan of where you are headed if you wake up to cloudy skies early on eclipse morning (and leaving yourself plenty of time to make the move).
Listen from 6.30am local (7.30am AEST)(2030 UTC) as they speak to Cairns BOM
Your website has been great Cyclone, thank you.
I had them on at work yday morning in Townsville, and have the girls set to have it on eclipse morning with the great sunrise views that you have there.
Will be great live webcam eclipse shots, for sure!!
Synoptic Situation: A trough extends over central coast waters into the central interior of Queensland and is expected to weaken as it contracts further north on Monday. A high over the Tasman Sea will move southeast towards New Zealand over the next couple of days, maintaining a firm ridge along the east Queensland coast.
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands Forecast: Isolated showers about the coast, ranges and southern Tablelands, tending scattered along the coast and ranges south of Cape Tribulation. Fine and partly cloudy for the remainder. Moderate S/SE winds, becoming fresh and gusty about the coast during the day. Cloud Forecasts BoM Access Model: Low cloud offshore, particularly before eclipse time, and a little over the ranges. Generally clear inland but some cloud patches shown in the middle of Cape York.
Skippy Sky: Low cloud offshore (a little heavier than average forecast) plus the now familiar indication of low cloud over Mt Carbine. A small amount of high cloud (patches east and west of Cairns).
EU: 40-80% low cloud for Cairns and Port Douglas, with some mid-level cloud coming in later. Less than 30% low cloud 60km inland, 50% at Mt Carbine.
Observed Weather Cairns: Broken cloud cover or scattered clouds.
Elsewhere: Cloud along the coast and over the ranges. Actually relatively clear further offshore but from Cairns webcam sun was behind cloud more often than not. Generally clear skies 60km inland.
Models repeating a similar pattern to previous days and a similar result observed. Outright luck as to whether your location on the coast has a gap at the right time in this kind of pattern.
Chance of Success (if eclipse had been this day)
Coast: ~30% (hard to say) [EDIT - probably quite a bit higher except for Cairns]
60km Inland: ~90%
How about Mareeba? It's about 40km inland. Would it have better chance than Cairns?
Keep watching cyclones webcam and see what you think. I think it has tended to average better than Cairns but not quite as good as locations a bit further inland that get more distance back from the cloudy ranges. Cyclone would be better positioned to answer this though..
Location: '34 South' Young Hilltops LGA, Australia
Posts: 1,481
Quote:
Originally Posted by philiphart
Monday 5th November
Observed Weather Cairns: Broken cloud cover or scattered clouds.
Elsewhere: Cloud along the coast and over the ranges. Actually relatively clear further offshore but from Cairns webcam sun was behind cloud more often than not. Generally clear skies 60km inland.
Models repeating a similar pattern to previous days and a similar result observed. Outright luck as to whether your location on the coast has a gap at the right time in this kind of pattern.
Chance of Success (if eclipse had been this day)
Coast: ~30% (hard to say)
60km Inland: ~90%
Hi Phil,
Thanks for these even though I have been reading them with some dismay. You paint a dismal picture for the coast.
Could you tell us the source & location of the coastal weather observations?
I am now in Port Douglas. At most ~1 Octa of cloud this morning on the west mountain ridge horizon up to 10-15 degrees. From 15 degrees above the west horizon to the east horizon clear except for one wispy 50% transparent cloud approx 2x8 degrees in size. Locals working at my site have told me that PD has been clear at eclipse time for several days though I'd put less reliability on these anecdotal observations. Who is feeding you these coastal observations and importantly where are the observations being made. I agree with statements about fast moving cloud but there are some areas that seem to have local cloud problems due to their proximity to the ranges.
Also keep in mind that thin cloud covering the coastline at eclipse time won't necessarily interfere with observations, at least not of the sun.
Thanks for these even though I have been reading them with some dismay. You paint a dismal picture for the coast.
Could you tell us the source & location of the coastal weather observations?
I am now in Port Douglas. At most ~1 Octa of cloud this morning on the west mountain ridge horizon up to 10-15 degrees. From 15 degrees above the west horizon to the east horizon clear except for one wispy 50% transparent cloud approx 2x8 degrees in size. Locals working at my site have told me that PD has been clear at eclipse time for several days though I'd put less reliability on these anecdotal observations. Who is feeding you these coastal observations and importantly where are the observations being made. I agree with statements about fast moving cloud but there are some areas that seem to have local cloud problems due to their proximity to the ranges.
Also keep in mind that thin cloud covering the coastline at eclipse time won't necessarily interfere with observations, at least not of the sun.
joe
hi joe
my main source is usually the high res visible satellite image at 7am, complemented by cyclones webcams at cairns, mareeba and mt carbine. if i get a chance before going to work i also look at the cairns airport METAR (observations) in the morning.
this morning was complicated by the fact that the site i get the high res visible image from (which houghy linked to) had a big gap in their usual sequence and did not provide an image till much later in the morning. so it was more difficult to say off the alternative images, but there appeared to be a band of low cloud hanging over the coast (7am attached). the webcam in cairns supported that (and the airport observation was BKN - broken cloud cover at a relatively low height.. about 2500 feet as i recall).
i did think at the time looking at the image that the east may have been clear from many locations along the coast, but leant in favour of what i could see on the webcam and the airport observations. looking again at the satellite image that was probably too conservative and much of the coast probably did ok.. but it's actually hard to reconcile the webcam and observations from cairns with this 7am image.
most mornings there has been more cloud off the coast than there was this morning.. so i'm not sure i agree with the anecdotal observations of the last few days. non-astronomers are often not very good at describing cloud situations?
my definition of success is quite tight too.. what a photographer would want for a clear view of the corona etc. a visual observer would be happy with quite a bit less.
Location: '34 South' Young Hilltops LGA, Australia
Posts: 1,481
Quote:
Originally Posted by philiphart
most mornings there has been more cloud off the coast than there was this morning.. so i'm not sure i agree with the anecdotal observations of the last few days. non-astronomers are often not very good at describing cloud situations?
my definition of success is quite tight too.. what a photographer would want for a clear view of the corona etc. a visual observer would be happy with quite a bit less.
hope that helps..
Phil
Thanks for that. Can I suggest you call them satellite cloud analysis or anything but observations or observed weather? I think it makes it confusing for the casual reader.
I do agree with your comment about non-astronomers, hence my caveat on the anecdotal observations.
There are a couple of traps interpreting satellite photo's as "observations"
cloud on the coast at 2500m - 5000 m won't interfere with coronal observations unless it extends 10-20km out to sea. Likewise, a clear sky over the coast won't guarantee success unless the cloud extends 10-20km out to sea.
It isn't such a problem here but cloud shown on a satellite photo isn't located where it is shown on photo relative to the coastline.
In the case of MTSAT the lateral displacement for Cairns is small, no more than a couple of km for low cloud, 5km for upper level.
BTW Completely cloudy this morning in Port Douglas low cloud as far as I could see in all directions.
Synoptic Situation: A high over the Tasman Sea is expected to intensify as it moves towards New Zealand over the next couple of days, maintaining a firm ridge along the east Queensland coast. A trough will move into far western Queensland this evening and remain slow moving near the western border of Queensland during Tuesday. North Tropical Coast and Tablelands Forecast: Isolated morning showers about the coast and ranges. Morning drizzle on the southern Tablelands. Otherwise, fine and partly cloudy. Moderate SE winds, fresh and gusty about the coast at times. Cloud Forecasts BoM Access Model: A little low cloud offshore and over the ranges (very hard to describe extent based on available forecast images). A small patch of high cloud decaying over coastal eclipse path late in the night.
Skippy Sky: Large area of low cloud offshore extending inland to Mt Carbine.
EU: 40-50% low cloud for Cairns/Port Douglas (with light showers indicated for Port Douglas). 50-90% low cloud and showers at Mt Carbine. Inland locations show 30% low cloud at Mt Gibson (Lakeland) but clear skies at Mt Mulligan.
Satellite Analysis/Observed Weather Visible Satellite (6:33AM, attached): Heavy cloud cover along the coast and ranges. Scattered clouds offshore. A few clouds inland but mainly clear skies. Infrared loop suggests that even 60km inland was cloudy at times a few hours before eclipse.
Cairns Airport (7:30AM): Scattered clouds at 2500ft, broken cloud cover at 6000ft.
Webcams: Broken cloud cover in the east early at Mareeba, clearing later but sun behind cloud at eclipse time. Broken cloud cover at Cairns and Mt Carbine, with very little view of the sun.
Similar prediction and a similar result.. models ok on the broad patterns but you can't read much into the details. The BoM text forecast is actually as good an indication for the coast as anything else.. if it describes morning showers/drizzle you can expect heavier cloud or lower odds of success than other days.
Chance of Success (if eclipse had been this day)
Coast: ~<10%
60km Inland:~70-80%
happy to admit i got monday wrong.. but i did note at the time that it was 'hard to say' given lack of usual information and difficulty reconciling the sources i did have. if you look back at my comments vs the images houghy and/or i have posted some days i doubt you'll find much to disagree with.
Quote:
Originally Posted by OzEclipse
Thanks for that. Can I suggest you call them satellite cloud analysis or anything but observations or observed weather? I think it makes it confusing for the casual reader.
Joe
ok.. not a bad suggestion.. i've started being more specific about the sources for what i describe (this gets more time consuming each day!). The webcams and Cairns airport METAR fit pretty easily under the definition of 'observed weather' though.
Quote:
Originally Posted by OzEclipse
There are a couple of traps interpreting satellite photo's as "observations" cloud on the coast at 2500m - 5000 m won't interfere with coronal observations unless it extends 10-20km out to sea. Likewise, a clear sky over the coast won't guarantee success unless the cloud extends 10-20km out to sea.
Joe
Yes.. I have commented on this up the thread as well after doing a bit of my own trigonometry . Inland on the visible image it's quite easy as you can often see the displaced shadows of the clouds on the ground. Working out when on the coast you can see the east from under the clouds is quite a bit harder but most days have not had the kind of clear area offshore that Monday had. Going to need some luck!
. Inland on the visible image it's quite easy as you can often see the displaced shadows of the clouds on the ground. Working out when on the coast you can see the east from under the clouds is quite a bit harder but most days have not had the kind of clear area offshore that Monday had. Going to need some luck!
