This weather info is a great resource but it has made me doubt my original plans. I am going up to Adams Dam on the Sunday to get a good spot - I expect a lot of people will have bought the 4 day ticket and so be arriving on Monday - and so will be out of phone and internet contact. My original though was that if the weather starts to look bad it is due to a low pressure system offshore blowing cloud onto the coast. Therefore I was going to go further west to King Junction or perhaps even Pormpuraaw/Kowanyama (yes very remote but we are a group of three cruisers with all the gear). However the pattern I just saw appeared to be a cloud band that moved from west to east and so going west wouldn't necessarily help.
Can anyone (cyclone?) comment on how likely it is that any cloud is coming from the east or west and how do I tell the difference? Is it just a matter of noting the wind direction? If I see the weather map on Sunday morning how much use will that be? Some climate maps I saw months ago implied that the afternoon cloudiness increases as you move off the plateau down to the lower country. But that isn't morning cloud. Any comments welcome.
Wednesday 24th October
Synoptic Situation: A trough extends from a deepening low over the central northern Tasman Sea to the Queensland coast near Hamilton Island, and is continuing to move northwards. A firm ridge from a high east of Victoria is building along Queensland's east coast to the south of the trough. A weak trough lies to the west of Torres Strait.
Forecast: Scattered showers south of Cairns, tending isolated elsewhere along the coast and ranges. Moderate to fresh SE winds, gusty at times along the coast.
Cloud Forecasts
BoM Access Model: Mix of high/mid/low cloud continues coming down from the north continues.
Skippy Sky: Extensive high cloud cover, some mid-level cloud to the north and low cloud just offshore.
EU: Overcast conditions with mix of high/mid/low cloud.
Observed Weather
Generally overcast skies with a mix of low/mid/high level cloud. Some clear gaps in a few locations.
Chance of Success (if eclipse had been this day)
Coast: <10%
60km Inland: <10%
This weather info is a great resource but it has made me doubt my original plans. I am going up to Adams Dam on the Sunday to get a good spot - I expect a lot of people will have bought the 4 day ticket and so be arriving on Monday - and so will be out of phone and internet contact. My original though was that if the weather starts to look bad it is due to a low pressure system offshore blowing cloud onto the coast. Therefore I was going to go further west to King Junction or perhaps even Pormpuraaw/Kowanyama (yes very remote but we are a group of three cruisers with all the gear). However the pattern I just saw appeared to be a cloud band that moved from west to east and so going west wouldn't necessarily help.
Can anyone (cyclone?) comment on how likely it is that any cloud is coming from the east or west and how do I tell the difference? Is it just a matter of noting the wind direction? If I see the weather map on Sunday morning how much use will that be? Some climate maps I saw months ago implied that the afternoon cloudiness increases as you move off the plateau down to the lower country. But that isn't morning cloud. Any comments welcome.
David.. I'd keep watching the patterns a bit more before reading too much into it. See how it looks as we get into November. But the flexibility you have to travel anywhere sounds great.
I think it would be difficult to make a decision on the basis of forecasts/cloud models on Sunday morning but by Monday morning you'd have better data. I don't think you necessarily need (or want) to be on the west coast of Cape York, but if you can get to places on the eclipse track that are well away from the east coast (150km+) that could increase your chances depending on the weather pattern in play. So far, 60km has often not been far enough to get clear of cloud over the ranges etc, particularly with eclipse low in east.
Just my unqualified two cents with very little experience of tropical weather..
If eclipse was today:
Mareeba timelapse: sun was visible only at total
Cairns timelaspe: lot of clouds, the odd sun here or there
Mt Carbine: same as Cairns
This weather info is a great resource but it has made me doubt my original plans. I am going up to Adams Dam on the Sunday to get a good spot - I expect a lot of people will have bought the 4 day ticket and so be arriving on Monday - and so will be out of phone and internet contact. My original though was that if the weather starts to look bad it is due to a low pressure system offshore blowing cloud onto the coast. Therefore I was going to go further west to King Junction or perhaps even Pormpuraaw/Kowanyama (yes very remote but we are a group of three cruisers with all the gear). However the pattern I just saw appeared to be a cloud band that moved from west to east and so going west wouldn't necessarily help.
Can anyone (cyclone?) comment on how likely it is that any cloud is coming from the east or west and how do I tell the difference? Is it just a matter of noting the wind direction? If I see the weather map on Sunday morning how much use will that be? Some climate maps I saw months ago implied that the afternoon cloudiness increases as you move off the plateau down to the lower country. But that isn't morning cloud. Any comments welcome.
I've been advised by 'experts' that Mareeba to Kowanyama is 8 hour trip and Mareeba to Kowanyama via Lakeland could be 12 to 15hr plus hours
Synoptic Situation: A high over the Tasman Sea extends a firm ridge along the east coast of Queensland.
Forecast: Isolated showers about the coast and ranges, clearing during the afternoon. Moderate SE winds, fresh at times along the coast.
Cloud Forecasts
BoM Access Model: Areas of low cloud offshore. Clear inland.
Skippy Sky: Areas of low cloud offshore and south of Cairns. Extensive high cloud well offshore but thinner towards the coast and onshore.
EU: Cairns and Port Douglas 50% cloudy with mix of mid and low level cloud. Mt Carbine overcast low cloud. Mt Gibson some low and heavier high cloud.
Observed Weather
Low cloud over the ranges and scattered cloud offshore. Large patch of cloud over north-eastern area of eclipse track. Clear in western half of track.
Chance of Success (if eclipse had been this day)
Coast: ~10%
60km Inland: ~20%
Because there's no way to get a map view of the cloud situation with the EU model, you may note that I'm quoting forecasts for some specific locations I can find in the area. Mt Gibson is near the north edge of the track and Mt Mulligan which I've just identified as a listed location on the yr.no site is south of the Mulligan Highway, both about 60km inland.
Note that I don't believe the models actually have a clue about the difference between places in the same coastal setting but as close together as Cairns and Port Douglas, but will generally provide figures for both to show the range of what the model indicates. Sometimes though the models will have a sketchy idea about the difference between coastal locations and those 60km inland. Definitely don't interpret the fact that I quote such precision to mean I believe it might ever be accurate.
Friday 26th October
Synoptic Situation: A high over the Tasman Sea extends a weakening ridge along the east coast of Queensland.
Forecast: Fine and mostly sunny with isolated fog patches about the south coast and southern Tablelands during the morning. Light to moderate SE winds with afternoon seabreezes about the coast.
Cloud Forecasts
BoM Access Model: Areas of low cloud offshore. Clear inland. Small amount of high cloud entering Cape York from the west.
Skippy Sky: Generally clear but some patches of low cloud indicated over ranges and offshore. High cloud well to NE but <30% in eclipse area.
EU: Some low cloud indicated for Cairns (5%), Port Douglas (20-50%), Mt Carbine (5-20%). Generally clear 60km inland (0-10%).
Observed Weather
Cairns: Broken low cloud cover.
Eastern Eclipse Area: Scattered clouds offshore extending a short distance (~20km) inland to the ranges. Clear inland and across the rest of the eclipse track.
I give the cloud forecast models a big thumbs up for today. Heading inland would have been the right choice for a clear view of the eclipse. US model over-estimated high cloud but there was some high cloud to the NE.
Chance of Success (if eclipse had been this day)
Coast: ~30-40%
60km Inland: >90%
Synoptic Situation: A high over the Tasman Sea extends a weakening ridge along the east coast of Queensland.
Forecast: Fine and mostly sunny. Light to moderate SE to NE winds.
Cloud Forecasts
BoM Access Model: Clear skies. Some small patches of high cloud moving from west to east during the night and during the day, but clear inland and offshore in the morning.
Skippy Sky: Clear skies, except for 10-20% high cloud indicated extending out from band well to the north.
EU: Absolutely clear skies. No cloud whatsoever indicated for inland or coastal eclipse locations at eclipse time!
Observed Weather
Cairns: Clear skies
Elsewhere: Clear skies across the entire eclipse path.
A perfect day for an eclipse in all areas and the cloud models picked it as well.
Chance of Success (if eclipse had been this day)
Coast: >95%
60km Inland: >95%
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