Hi Barry & All,
Quote:
Originally Posted by Barrykgerdes
Its colloquial term is "sabre rattling"
The Maori's call it a "Haka"
Meant to frighten possible opponents into do something rash.
|
Yeah I think you've got it mostly right Barry. The whole thing I think is alarming but not likely to go much further. The U.S aren't doing the right thing at the moment to de-escalate the thing and equally, neither is China.
You must realise that North Korea is a hard-line Stalinist regime that reflects the scenario and conditions portrayed in the novel "Nineteen-Eighty Four" by George Orwell -- particularly as to the leadership-cult surrounding its dictators. Remember; Ministry of Truth, Ministry of Peace, Ministry of Love, Ministry of Plenty etc ... Kim Jong-Il who has been leader since the mid-eighties is ailing and his grip on power is loosening. He has already anointed his successor -- his third son Kim Jung-un. Apparently his first son is a bit of a girls-blouse and was passed over.
26 year-old Kim Jong-un entered the military with a promotion straight to the equivalent U.S rank of four-star general in September 2010 and is now firmly in position within the party to succeed his father who is expected to pass-on soon. He is said to be very much like his father in every way (ie a psychopath). His nick-name is "Brilliant-Comrade".
Logically, to consolidate and cement his growing power and the succession plan of his father, what he needs is a "courageous, brilliant military victory" where he can be seen to (and be reported to) almost single-handedly save North Korea from the evil forces of bourgeoisie capitalist Uncle Sam and his imperialist South-Korean running-dog puppets to boost his public profile within the state-run propaganda machine (see: Ministry of Truth) that will have the effect of elevating him to "God" status -- and to be venerated. I think this is what it's all about. I don't think they really will risk a live war with the South or the U.S because they know China won't join in because to do so China must declare war on the U.S -- their largest export market. A bad move for China. North Korea knows China won't be in it and that without China's backing, they couldn't win (while he's a psychopath, he's not dopey). Having been in China last year, I spoke to several people about how China views North Korea and uniformly, they see them as "head-cases" and "loose cannons" -- not the normal description for an ally.
But internally Kim Jong-un needs (or would strongly desire) to create the perception of a continuing war in which he is the great commander for political power-base building purposes.
I don't think it will escalate beyond this. You never know if someone blinks at the wrong time but I think for all practical purposes, the cold war there will continue.
Best,
Les D