AUD goes past 90

[multiweb (Marc)]

Originally Posted by Nesti

Of course, the banks know EXACTLY what they are doing.

Too true. Down to +/-0.00001c precision to be exact
I wish my guiding was that good ...

[Dennis79 (Keith)]

Originally Posted by mick pinner

the reserve bank raises interest rates with more to come in the short term, now we are told that unemployment is expected to rise by a min of 150,000 in the short term, does anyone really believe that the people that control the monetary issues in this country know what they are doing.

Nope, no one does. The basis for most economists reasoning is based on unproven economic theory. Most mainstream economists that you see on TV and the ones in most governments are using an economic theory called neo classical economic theory, which has large portions that has been proven incorrect.

[Gargoyle_Steve (Steve)]

Originally Posted by erick

Who bought a batch of filters recently @0.82 thinking "Get in fast before it drops!"

Aussie dollar passed 92c US today, that's up a full cent in the last 24 hours again. So I took the opportunity and ordered a 2" NPB filter to go with the 1.25" version I already own.

The AUD may keep rising, but I'm happy to buy at this level and lock it in as such, just in case it does back off again.

[Davros (Lauren)]

Good to see you on here again Steve

[Rod66 (Rod)]

Originally Posted by Dennis79

Nope, no one does. The basis for most economists reasoning is based on unproven economic theory. Most mainstream economists that you see on TV and the ones in most governments are using an economic theory called neo classical economic theory, which has large portions that has been proven incorrect.

Well since neoclassical economic theory encompasses such a broad range of theories, many of them conflicting, you're probably right that most economists subscribe to at least something coming under the broad banner of neoclassical economics.
No economic theory has yet been proven to be infallible so it doesn't matter which theory you pick, they kind of all come undone.

I think we just said the same thing - no one really knows whats going to happen next

[Phil]

I was told it could go as high as $1.05 by next year.
Phil

[mithrandir (Andrew)]

Originally Posted by erick

Who bought a batch of filters recently @0.82 thinking "Get in fast before it drops!"

You win some you lose some. 82 was better than the ~50 we got when we were in the US in '99. Then there was no point in buying anything that could be bought at home. Home was cheaper, even for US made goods.

I'm asking Bintel for some prices at $US0.92 and 0.61 Euro.

[wasyoungonce (Brendan)]

Originally Posted by Phil

I was told it could go as high as $1.05 by next year.
Phil

http://forecasts.org/ausd.htm

http://au.finance.yahoo.com/currency...o=USD&from=AUD

Maybe...that would nice for us punters!

[Kal (Andrew)]

I have a feeling that the AUD will go above parity, and it will do so with ease.

Looking at the data found at http://www.tradingeconomics.com/ you can see how much harder the US was hit by this current economic crises than Australia was. In the last 18 months their unemployment rate has gone up from 4.8% to 9.8%, and it is still climbing from September to October this year (source). Compare that to Australia which only went from 3.9% to 5.7% unemployment over the same period (source). The US is in a hole, and the demand for Australian resources is strong again, so I don't see why we can't push well past parity (my personal prediction, based on pure speculation with a small sprinkling of salt, is US$1 = AU$1.10 next year

[Omaroo (Chris Malikoff)]

Originally Posted by Kal

I have a feeling that the AUD will go above parity, and it will do so with ease.

I don't see why we can't push well past parity (my personal prediction, based on pure speculation with a small sprinkling of salt, is US$1 = AU$1.10 next year

Do you not mean US$1.10 = AU$1.00?

[Nesti (Mark)]

Originally Posted by Kal

The US is in a hole, and the demand for Australian resources is strong again, so I don't see why we can't push well past parity (my personal prediction, based on pure speculation with a small sprinkling of salt, is US$1 = AU$1.10 next year

Funny enough, I was having this exact conversation with the owner of one of the largest micro-lenders in Aust over coffee this morning. He believes the Aussie dollar will make it to AU$0.91 against the greenback by mid Feb. The real wealth out there is gravitating toward the real buyers, the Asian markets, especially China.

Clouds are forming though; NAB are reeling in as many commercial loans as they can. I posted about 4-5mths ago that there will be a commercial property bubble burst. NAB may be positioning themselves against that rising risk.

[Nesti (Mark)]

Originally Posted by Kal

In the last 18 months their unemployment rate has gone up from 4.8% to 9.8%, and it is still climbing from September to October this year (source).

Sorry Kal, those are official US Government figures, as such, they do not include certain demographics which our bureau of statistics do trap and factor in. The REAL approximation is 14-15% unemployment.
http://wallstreetpit.com/10873-real-...stem-is-broken

"If one considers the people who would like a job but have stopped looking -- so-called discouraged workers -- and those who are working fewer hours than they want, the unemployment rate would move from the official 9.4 percent to 16 percent, said Atlanta Fed chief Dennis Lockhart."
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php...show_article=1

To put that into more realistic and scarier terms; for every 75 US citizens who are working full-time, there is 1 US citizen in Gaol (Jail).

If you understand the term 'monetization of debt', then the next video is even scarier, but it IS real;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-ZZFmKFk1s
If you can't visualise what US$60 Trillion is, it's roughly 1/4 of US$1M ($250,000) for every man, woman and child in the US...how do you pay for that?????

monetization means;
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetization

[Kal (Andrew)]

Originally Posted by Omaroo

Do you not mean US$1.10 = AU$1.00?

err, yeah

[Kal (Andrew)]

Originally Posted by Nesti

Sorry Kal, those are official US Government figures, as such, they do not include certain demographics which our bureau of statistics do trap and factor in. The REAL approximation is 14-15% unemployment.
http://wallstreetpit.com/10873-real-...stem-is-broken

"If one considers the people who would like a job but have stopped looking -- so-called discouraged workers -- and those who are working fewer hours than they want, the unemployment rate would move from the official 9.4 percent to 16 percent, said Atlanta Fed chief Dennis Lockhart."
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php...show_article=1

To put that into more realistic and scarier terms; for every 75 US citizens who are working full-time, there is 1 US citizen in Gaol (Jail).

The figures aren't wrong, just the method used to interpret the data and acquire a figure is different. The figures which I linked state how they are gathered, so there is no smoke and mirrors "Unemployment rate is defined as the level of unemployment divided by the labour force. The labour force is defined as the number of people employed plus the number unemployed but seeking work." If you want to compare unemployment rate to that of the 1970's however, then you can't directly correlate it because of the change in the way the date is gathered and interpreted between the two times, and I agree, it will become much larger because you have to add the number of people not employed and not looking for work to the total.

If you understand the term 'monetization of debt', then the next video is even scarier, but it IS real;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-ZZFmKFk1s
If you can't visualise what US$60 Trillion is, it's roughly 1/4 of US$1M ($250,000) for every man, woman and child in the US...how do you pay for that?????

monetization means;
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetization

Fascinating video, the guy really seems to know what he is talking about. 60 trillion dollars, how do you pay for that? The guy explains it in the video You have 4% inflation for the next 14 years which devalues the US $ to about half of the current value, turning that $60 trillion into a $30 trillion.

I'd never even heard of SDR's before watching that video, I have some research to do

[Nesti (Mark)]

Originally Posted by Kal

You have 4% inflation for the next 14 years which devalues the US $ to about half of the current value, turning that $60 trillion into a $30 trillion.

Which in turn devalues all US bonds and US cash reserves held by other countries...would you buy US debt again?...that becomes a suicide option for the US economy which is primarily based upon debt.

[Nesti (Mark)]

Originally Posted by Kal

The figures aren't wrong, just the method used to interpret the data and acquire a figure is different. The figures which I linked state how they are gathered, so there is no smoke and mirrors "Unemployment rate is defined as the level of unemployment divided by the labour force. The labour force is defined as the number of people employed plus the number unemployed but seeking work." If you want to compare unemployment rate to that of the 1970's however, then you can't directly correlate it because of the change in the way the date is gathered and interpreted between the two times, and I agree, it will become much larger because you have to add the number of people not employed and not looking for work to the total.

Do some snooping around, you'll find out.

In the words of Peter Schiff, "The United States exports to the world BS statistics so that Wall Street may leverage whatever it needs to".

Heck, the US Fed isn't even a government agency, it's a private entity, but they spin market it to look all the world like one.

[Nesti (Mark)]

I might need to clarify my previous statement.

Let me explain just how bad an idea of 4% inflation is over 17 years without a strong economy.

If you type into a calculator 100 x 0.96, then, x 0.96, and do it 17 times, you end up with 49.95868.

This means that if you put US$100 under the bed today, in 17 years time it will be worth US$50.

So what they aim to do, is to TAX (yes, inflation is a tax) everyone in the US 50% of what they have earned in their lives.

Since very few, if any, people have their entire net worth in a 6.3% term deposit, it's fairly safe to say that half of what someone owns, will evaporate.

This includes most people's greatest asset, their home. Expect not only inflation to depreciate property, but massive increases in numbers of properties for sale will lower property value even more.

You might say that we've averaged 2.8% over the last 10 years just fine. But we have strong exports. Also, we don't have 15% unemployment, or debts equal to our yearly GDP.

Expect the cost of your hobby equipment to drop...a lot!

[wasyoungonce (Brendan)]

Originally Posted by Nesti

Expect the cost of your hobby equipment to drop...a lot!

I've been thinking about this.

US mostly imports from China (for Astro gear) so if their dollar drops wrt CH dollar then there may be no great gains...except in current stock.

If any equipment you want is made in the good old USA then "yummy yummy yum yum" as the Goodies would say!

I am sitting on the edge of my seat waiting for my "yummy" moment..."soon my precious soon"! I'm waiting for .95c rate then...that'll do for me.

[mswhin63 (Malcolm)]

Heard report could head to $1.10, but wait and see. Unfortunately interest rates could soar as a result. The danger of importing.

[Nesti (Mark)]

Originally Posted by mswhin63

Heard report could head to $1.10, but wait and see. Unfortunately interest rates could soar as a result. The danger of importing.

Yes, it sounds like that's what will happen. Interest rates going up is a GOOD thing, not BAD, and the sooner we do it, the better off we will be later. If we delay, it will only make matters worse in the long run. So long as we start early, that rates remain affordable to the middle class, and the economy ($) and trade remain strong, will pull through handsomely.

The recession we should have had, but didn't (so that’s two now really), will manifest as inflation. If we tackle the issue now, raise the interest rates gradually (cut until we bleed) to remain buoyant - I'm certain of this now - then we will emerge with a currency that climbs during an inflatory period, much the same as physical precious metals.

Remember, we are the first country in the world which can afford to, and is physically able to, lift interest rates. NZ should follow shortly.

So while the major players 10 year ago are wondering what to do, we will be working on growth. And where does real wealth gravitate toward? To where the money is being spent.