So, what the heck is next?

[SimmoW (SIMON)]

Dammit, I hear the Melbourne shops are running short of single origin roasted coffee beans! And almond milk is as rare as...

[casstony]

I wonder if I can trade a bottle of Plaquenil/chloroquine for a packet of toilet paper? The shelves are still empty in our supermarkets. One wonders how we survive with so many stupid people.

I'm tempted to line the back window of the car with toilet rolls and park it in the street, sit for a coffee and observe - maybe a toilet paper fox tail on the aerial too .

[xelasnave]

Is there any truth to the rumour that the virus is being spread by toilet paper?
Xela

[pmrid (Peter)]

Originally Posted by casstony

One wonders how we survive with so many stupid people.

Here's a couple of even scarier thoughts. Each one of those people fighting in the aisles of ALDI over a pack of toilet paper is entitled to breed without restraint and vote.

Makes me sleep even more soundly.

Peter

[casstony]

Originally Posted by xelasnave

Is there any truth to the rumour that the virus is being spread by toilet paper?
Xela

How do we get that message onto social media?

[JA]

Out of interest I found this on a Nature / Nature Biotechnology webpage....

"At least ten clinical trials are testing chloroquine, approved as an antimalarial and autoimmune disease drug. In vitro, the endosomal acidification fusion inhibitor blocked infection of a clinical isolate of SARS-CoV-2."

What was even more interesting was the report that various other antiviral drugs, interferon, etc were also being tested, but chloroquine was being tested in far more clinical trials than the other drugs- 10 trials.

Stay safe, wash your hands, etc...

Best
JA

[casstony]

Originally Posted by JA

What was even more interesting was the report that various other antiviral drugs, interferon, etc were also being tested, but chloroquine was being tested in far more clinical trials than the other drugs- 10 trials.

Chloroquine is cheap and has less side effects than interferon, so it's a more attractive solution to investigate.

[xelasnave]

Originally Posted by casstony

How do we get that message onto social media?

We just did
Alex

[glend (Glen)]

It is everywhere crackpots gather, I have seen the same advice on the SpaceX Starship live stream chat line on Utube (Labpadre's chsnnel).

[gary]

The United States has just suspended all travel from Europe for 30 days.

Actor Tom Hanks ad his wife have just tweeted they have tested positive
whilst on the Gold Coast. Hanks was there to make a movie with Baz
Luhrmann.

All shops in Italy except those that sell food have been ordered to close.

[xelasnave]

Originally Posted by gary

The United States has just suspended all travel from Europe for 30 days.

Actor Tom Hanks ad his wife have just tweeted they have tested positive
whilst on the Gold Coast. Hanks was there to make a movie with Baz
Luhrmann.

All shops in Italy except those that sell food have been ordered to close.

This could be a good thing ..assuming they survive...the virus is a huge concern but the fear is way above that.
Gary please what is your view of our future...you are one of the few people who I look up to...so please.
Alex

[gary]

Originally Posted by xelasnave

This could be a good thing ..assuming they survive...the virus is a huge concern but the fear is way above that.
Gary please what is your view of our future...you are one of the few people who I look up to...so please.
Alex

Hi Alex,

This story just appeared in the Sydney Morning Herald.

Originally Posted by Sydney Morning Herald, 12 March 2020

About 1.5 million predicted to get coronavirus in NSW

NSW Chief Medical Officer Kerry Chant says that 20 per cent, or about 1.5
million people, in NSW will be infected by coronavirus.

The ABC reported that Dr Chant said the hospitals have been told to double the capacity of their Intensive Care Units and ventilator beds.

"We're nowhere near the peak," she said.

"We've got early evidence of limited community transmission and now is the time we are continuing our endeavours to contract, trace and isolate cases."

But Dr Chant said for the majority of people who are infected they will have a mild illness and some may not even show symptoms.

Take careful note of the numbers that she is projecting.

In all the wars that Australia has ever fought in, about 120,000 Australians,
mainly servicemen, have lost their lives. Based on the numbers that the
NSW Chief Medical Officer is quoting and extrapolating that to other states,
giving up on this has the potential to result in more deaths than all the war
causalities Australia has ever endured.

The story has NSW Chief Medical Officer Kerry Chant reassuring people that
the majority of people infected will have a mild illness. True enough and
statistics from overseas indicate that is about 80%. But yesterday in Italy
their death rate was over 6%.

Now the person estimating and warning that the number of infections
in NSW is not just another epidemiologist or doctor but the NSW Chief
Medical Officer. Like the Governor of the Reserve Bank, someone who,
when they make a statement has to choose their words very carefully.

So it can be interpreted to mean that the government is not about to take
hard decisive action, such as shut the borders and then go all out to
halt the limited outbreaks that have occurred thus far.

It seems to me we have a situation where the government doesn't want
to make the call and so are passing the buck to the federal medical
advisers. The medical advisers don't want to make the call in case they
are later accused of over-reacting.

Italy has got itself in the situation of being in total lockdown not because
of a run on toilet paper, not because of panic but because of lack
of vigilance and timely action. Now no one can travel out of the country
or within the country. Today they closed all shops except food outlets.
You just can't go out and enjoy yourself there. The place is totally crippled.
In cities such as Milan, the hospital and heath system is totally overloaded
beyond capacity. As one doctor reported there, it is much worse than a
bomb going off as it is continuous. And despite the social distancing
measures, on Monday alone, Italy recorded 168 deaths. It is spreading
within families.

So toilet paper, perception of people panicking and so on are the least
of our worries.

[xelasnave]

Thank you Gary for taking your time to inform me.
I am going bush soon so I hope that is some protection.
Yet it would seem that it can't really ever be eradicated ..I don't know much but a virus I don't really understand.
I do know ( think I know) that a virus can't be killed although hep C is now curable as I understand...
And does one get immunity if you survive? Do folk who survive just become carriers?
But why this obsession with toilet paper. I went shopping yesterday ...no toilet paper or paper towels but heaps of bulk type rice...maybe I can harvest the leaves off my trees to fill a gap in the he market..but why buy toilet paper and not rice.
And one day ..no eggs???
But what a time to buy shares? Or is it? Will they drop more?
Look at Commonwealth Bank shares...I would buy now if I had cash but the way it's going is the current price the bottom?
All those crazy preppers don't seem so crazy now.
Alex

[PeterM]

Originally Posted by gary

Hi Alex,

This story just appeared in the Sydney Morning Herald.



Take careful note of the numbers that she is projecting.

In all the wars that Australia has ever fought in, about 120,000 Australians,
mainly servicemen, have lost their lives. Based on the numbers that the
NSW Chief Medical Officer is quoting and extrapolating that to other states,
giving up on this has the potential to result in more deaths than all the war
causalities Australia has ever endured.

The story has NSW Chief Medical Officer Kerry Chant reassuring people that
the majority of people infected will have a mild illness. True enough and
statistics from overseas indicate that is about 80%. But yesterday in Italy
their death rate was over 6%.

Now the person estimating and warning that the number of infections
in NSW is not just another epidemiologist or doctor but the NSW Chief
Medical Officer. Like the Governor of the Reserve Bank, someone who,
when they make a statement has to choose their words very carefully.

So it can be interpreted to mean that the government is not about to take
hard decisive action, such as shut the borders and then go all out to
halt the limited outbreaks that have occurred thus far.

It seems to me we have a situation where the government doesn't want
to make the call and so are passing the buck to the federal medical
advisers. The medical advisers don't want to make the call in case they
are later accused of over-reacting.

Italy has got itself in the situation of being in total lockdown not because
of a run on toilet paper, not because of panic but because of lack
of vigilance and timely action. Now no one can travel out of the country
or within the country. Today they closed all shops except food outlets.
You just can't go out and enjoy yourself there. The place is totally crippled.
In cities such as Milan, the hospital and heath system is totally overloaded
beyond capacity. As one doctor reported there, it is much worse than a
bomb going off as it is continuous. And despite the social distancing
measures, on Monday alone, Italy recorded 168 deaths. It is spreading
within families.

So toilet paper, perception of people panicking and so on are the least
of our worries.

Yup, yet just 3 months into this new virus we are hearing "It's just the Flu" and "thousands die every year from the Flu". Yet the Flu has been around many hundreds or maybe thousand of years. The only similarity I can see is you get Flu like symptoms (maybe more cold like in some). So a never before seen and very contagious virus with a very high rate of hospitalisation, with many needing ventilators that just won't be available and will likely more than challenge our health system.... and you hear it's just the Flu... WT? If that's the attitude then good luck all.
The Lancet is a good read regarding "How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19" I particularly took note of one observation "data are scarce" well, at least they recognise we are only 3 months into this.
So, who do you want on the ventilator, Mum, Dad, Nan or Pa, we MAY only have one available, that's if his Mum, Dad, Nan or Pa cark it.

And, this is not off thread as is it is titled "so, what the heck is next?" Next is here now.

[gary]

Originally Posted by PeterM

Yup, yet just 3 months into this new virus we are hearing "It's just the Flu" and "thousands die every year from the Flu". Yet the Flu has been around many hundreds or maybe thousand of years. The only similarity I can see is you get Flu like symptoms (maybe more cold like in some). So a never before seen and very contagious virus with a very high rate of hospitalisation, with many needing ventilators that just won't be available and will likely more than challenge our health system.... and you hear it's just the Flu... WT?

Hi Peter,

That's right.

And what is different is that for this novel virus we have unprecedented
levels of vigilance, testing, containment, quarantine measures, social
distancing and so on.

Imagine what things would be like if all these measures were not taking
place.

None of us have ever experienced anything like it.

It reminds me of the Y2K Bug. A lot pf people say, "Well, nothing
happened", but what they don't account for is the small army of people
who worked behind the scenes to make sure nothing happened.

The hospitals in some parts of Italy have already become overrun.

What is particularly sad to read this afternoon is the story out of Italy
where 200 more have died today and that the Italian College of
Anaesthesia, Analgesia, Resuscitation and Intensive Care
are proposing that the coronavirus pandemic may mean patients over a
certain age could be banned from intensive care units and left to die to
give others a better chance of survival.

Originally Posted by Sydney Morning Herald

Likening the need to subject infected patients to triage systems set up for wars or natural disasters, the doctors said the "first come, first served" basis of admission to scarce intensive care beds would need to be changed.

"It might become necessary to set an age limit on those entering intensive care," the advice said.

With the median age for people who contract the virus and then die
as being 65, that does not bode well for a large percentage of the
population. And that is the *median* age - the one in the middle - not
exactly old by modern western standards today.

With overrun hospitals, heaven forbid anyone there suffering a heart
attack, stroke, being in a car accident and so on and requiring intensive
care. In other words the types of things that happen to people every day
and which the survival rate might otherwise be pretty good.

Like being in a natural disaster or a casualty of war, a split second
decision might be made there on whether you or your loved one
meets the cut-off.

The Australian Pandemic plan has the Prime Minister in charge.
Decisive action today could avert Australia from going down the path
of the current Italian experience. Forget about people that are hoarding
toilet paper. It is obvious to me who needs to be given the wake-up call.
Australia could avert this and the first thing you would do is close the
borders, as many other countries have already done and concurrently
you would try to extinguish the limited number of clusters Australia
has here at the moment, as they are trying to do but with a moving target
of new arrivals from overseas.

The story about that tough moral decision Italy is about to make here :-
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/...12-p5499t.html

[lazjen (Chris)]

I think I agree with you Gary. It would be better to "go hard" at this now and delay as much as possible the near inevitable rise in numbers we're going to get. Limit the vectors of new infections and get it to a close to zero as possible. Every day we keep it reduced, the closer we get to a potential vaccine, etc.

Close the borders and when they're reopened, do it in small measures with enhanced screening for EVERYONE who comes in. Even if that means they get tested, have to quarantine until the test comes back negative (for all on the vessel arriving). Any time there's a positive, the whole group goes to 14 day quarantine lockdown.

Besides the health system having issues, we're going to see problems elsewhere too. I lost my job 10 days ago due to a massive layoff (12% of the company globally gone, approx 3000 - and it wasn't related to Covid-19). I am having some issues finding new work, with a number of positions being pulled from advertising due to Covid-19. Thankfully I was prepared for such a situation (losing a job) after similar events in the past, so I can ride it out for a while, but not everyone is going to be as lucky. I'm not sure what's needed to deal with it - not sure if the current stimulus ideas will work effectively for it.

[strongmanmike (Michael)]

Originally Posted by gary

Hi Peter,

That's right.

And what is different is that for this novel virus we have unprecedented
levels of vigilance, testing, containment, quarantine measures, social
distancing and so on.

Imagine what things would be like if all these measures were not taking
place.

None of us have ever experienced anything like it.

It reminds me of the Y2K Bug. A lot pf people say, "Well, nothing
happened", but what they don't account for is the small army of people
who worked behind the scenes to make sure nothing happened.

The hospitals in some parts of Italy have already become overrun.

What is particularly sad to read this afternoon is the story out of Italy
where 200 more have died today and that the Italian College of
Anaesthesia, Analgesia, Resuscitation and Intensive Care
are proposing that the coronavirus pandemic may mean patients over a
certain age could be banned from intensive care units and left to die to
give others a better chance of survival.



With the median age for people who contract the virus and then die
as being 65, that does not bode well for a large percentage of the
population. And that is the *median* age - the one in the middle - not
exactly old by modern western standards today.

With overrun hospitals, heaven forbid anyone there suffering a heart
attack, stroke, being in a car accident and so on and requiring intensive
care. In other words the types of things that happen to people every day
and which the survival rate might otherwise be pretty good.

Like being in a natural disaster or a casualty of war, a split second
decision might be made there on whether you or your loved one
meets the cut-off.

The Australian Pandemic plan has the Prime Minister in charge.
Decisive action today could avert Australia from going down the path
of the current Italian experience. Forget about people that are hoarding
toilet paper. It is obvious to me who needs to be given the wake-up call.
Australia could avert this and the first thing you would do is close the
borders, as many other countries have already done and concurrently
you would try to extinguish the limited number of clusters Australia
has here at the moment, as they are trying to do but with a moving target
of new arrivals from overseas.

The story about that tough moral decision Italy is about to make here :-
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/...12-p5499t.html

Your usual spot on insightful analysis, Thank you. I wish you were our PM. Unfortunately (and I know you are careful enough not to add it but I will) Morrison has little to no chance of handling this well....

Mike

[DarkArts]

Originally Posted by casstony

One wonders how we survive with so many stupid people.

I wonder this every day.

[Slawomir (Suavi)]

Due to secrecy and slow government reaction to Chernobyl disaster at the time, together with tens of millions of people from Eastern Europe, I have an elevated risk of getting thyroid cancer, leukaemia, cataracts, cardiovascular disease - you name it. I hope Australian government will act wisely, quickly and effectively.

[LewisM]

Gary, firstly total war deaths to date for Australia is 102,888. Whilst comparing these statistics is symbolic, it is nothing more than that. It is literally chalk and cheese, with the only common denominator being statistical death.

Let’s consider how to combat this pandemic rather than equating it unnecessarily and rather erroneously to combatant death - it’s rather like the “20 football fields” layman’s visualization.

We need to close borders, and isolate those infected. I spoke with 2 people fresh back from Japan today and they said nothing was done at either end except ask if they had been to China or Korea and felt ok. Yes, that’ll fix it...