Aurora tonight

[Forgey (Paula)]

Get those batteries charged


The NOAA has forecast the CME to arrive between 6-9UTC. This corresponds to 4-6pm AEDT.
They are expecting it to generate G2-G3 geomagnetic storms - ie. Kp 6-7. This is relatively strong and should it occur will result in some fairly strong auroral activity.

However, it's important to note that there is always a large amount of uncertainty in both timing and strength in these forecasts. Usually the timing is given a +/- 10 hour caviat, and often the activity can lack the expected strength. The forecasts usually quote the maximum impact as they are intended to allow spacecraft operators warning to protect their hardware.

Here is the expected Kp breakdown:

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 08-Jan 10 2014

Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10

00-03UT 3 3 7 (G3)
03-06UT 3 2 6 (G2)
06-09UT 1 7 (G3) 5 (G1)
09-12UT 1 7 (G3) 4
12-15UT 2 6 (G2) 4
15-18UT 2 5 (G1) 3
18-21UT 3 6 (G2) 3
21-00UT 3 6 (G2) 3

[Paul Haese]

Paula, I have been watching the forecasts for the last few days. Looking pretty good on this one. Even the bureau of meteorology has issued a forecast for all southern states for Aurora tonight. Heard it on ABC just an hour or so ago, so it must be a good possibility.

Setting up now and getting all my gear packed for a long night. Planning on staying out till dawn as I have never seen a G3 before and the one I captured last year in June which was at KP7 was a G1 storm. This will likely be stronger again should it impact our magnetic field squarely.

So good luck to all out there going for a look. Anyone in SA wanting to catch up with me I will be on Granite Island from about 830 tonight.

[Forgey (Paula)]

I'll be heading out also, looks like this one is going to be pretty good.
My last couple of efforts haven't been that great hopefully I get something decent this time.
If anyone in VIC is thinking of heading out, head to the coast or if you have a clear view to the south with little or no light pollution look to the south, I will most likely be at Flinders or there abouts.

[Octane (Humayun)]

Despite the cloud, I'm now leaving for Victoria, myself.

H

[Meru (Michael)]

That sounds awesome Paula, I've never seen an aurora before. I'm a complete newbie to all this so please excuse the lame questions So it's expected to hit around 4-6pm, but with a +/- 10 hr accuracy? So hopefully if its clear tonight it would be visible to the naked eye? I'm not sure how long they last but hoping to get some images. Might take a drive down towards Arthur's seat and see what I can get

[Redshift13 (Rohan)]

Excellent, I'm in staying on the Ninety Mile Beach at the moment - lovely dark skies, and they're clear too! Will head over to the beach later with the camera and tripod in tow.

Hopefully the wind calms down a little though, been pretty breezy along the coast the last few days.

[Forgey (Paula)]

Originally Posted by Octane

Despite the cloud, I'm now leaving for Victoria, myself.

H

You keen H !

Originally Posted by Meru

That sounds awesome Paula, I've never seen an aurora before. I'm a complete newbie to all this so please excuse the lame questions So it's expected to hit around 4-6pm, but with a +/- 10 hr accuracy? So hopefully if its clear tonight it would be visible to the naked eye? I'm not sure how long they last but hoping to get some images. Might take a drive down towards Arthur's seat and see what I can get

Seeing it won't be dark till 10-10:30pm be on the lookout from then.
As this one is predicted to be fairly strong it will be possible to be naked eye visible.

[Adelastro1 (Wayne England)]

See you down there Paul!

Originally Posted by Paul Haese

Paula, I have been watching the forecasts for the last few days. Looking pretty good on this one. Even the bureau of meteorology has issued a forecast for all southern states for Aurora tonight. Heard it on ABC just an hour or so ago, so it must be a good possibility.

Setting up now and getting all my gear packed for a long night. Planning on staying out till dawn as I have never seen a G3 before and the one I captured last year in June which was at KP7 was a G1 storm. This will likely be stronger again should it impact our magnetic field squarely.

So good luck to all out there going for a look. Anyone in SA wanting to catch up with me I will be on Granite Island from about 830 tonight.

[rustigsmed (Russell)]

Will be down at flinders or balnarring beach methinks, flinders may get busy?

[h0ughy (David)]

good luck those that can get to see and image this!!

[acropolite (Phil)]

I'll be out when it gets dark (probably around 9:30-10pm DST) with a black camera.....

Originally Posted by H

Despite the cloud, I'm now leaving for Victoria, myself

I have a choice of 2 mountains within an hours drive, being a lazy bugger, I'll probably just walk to the end of the street.....

[BPO]

Clear up here at ~2,000m asl. Hopefully my all sky cams will get a good view. If so, I'll compile a TL and up it to YouTube.

[omegacrux (David)]

I might go to the local lookout , it has unobstructed southern views
And its clear

David

[DavidU (Dave)]

I have been texting a daughter in Kilcunda to the east of Philip Island.
She will let me know if there is any action.

[acropolite (Phil)]

Just slipped outside with the camera, nothing detectable ATM, although it's still far from dark.

[rustigsmed (Russell)]

Still nothing down in Vic ...

[Osirisra (Ken)]

Watching this test product, nothing thing hit us yet.

http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/

[Octane (Humayun)]

What a waste of petrol and time.

Sleeping in the car until morning as there's no petrol stations that I know of that will be open at this hour. Never been down this way before.

Did get some nice shots on the beach. Just no aurora.

H

[Forgey (Paula)]

Still at Cape Schank, it it hits soon the wa guys should get it .

[Meru (Michael)]

Thanks for the info Paula,

Well that certainly was disappointing. We ended up driving an hour to Arthur's seat near Rosebud but saw nothing. Atleast we got some nice pics of the beach haha