Japan Earthquake Science

[yusufcam (Colin)]

Originally Posted by CraigS

Perhaps, but as you say, this is just an idea.

Cheers

the animals sensing natural disasters appears to be an idea that members of the scientific community are taking an interest in rather than dismissing.

the mathematical certainty of unpredictability, one could say as logically, is that they have yet to figured it out.

i suppose i lean towards the idea that its an unknown rather than unpredictable.

i'll stop here ...

[Brian W (Brian)]

If it was me, I would've acted assuming that we have no idea as to where and when, the next earthquake would strike. This would then seemingly lead to a program of building reactors inland, instead of just in the northern part of the country and on the coast ! (For example).

We can make sound, very practical decisions based upon the assurance of unpredictability.


Let me see if I understand you correctly;

Because you have absolutely no idea where the next earthquake will strike you are going to build your reactor inland.

Basing this decision soundly upon the assurance of unpredictability!

Seems to me your process for making a decision is equivalent to drawing straws. The locality that draws the short straw gets the reactor cause there is no way to decide which place is safer.

As someone once said to me... garbage.

There is a little concept called probability. You build on a flood plain probably you will get flooded. Build on a major fault line and there is more of a probability of an earthquake levelling your structure than if you don't. Build on the coast and there is a higher probability that a really big wave or surge will hit you than if you build in the interior.

Certainly at the present it is not possible to predict when and where Mother Earth will turn violent but it is certainly possible now to state statistically which areas are more likely to be affected.

Brian

[CraigS]

Originally Posted by Brian W

Let me see if I understand you correctly;

Because you have absolutely no idea where the next earthquake will strike you are going to build your reactor inland.

Basing this decision soundly upon the assurance of unpredictability!

Seems to me your process for making a decision is equivalent to drawing straws. The locality that draws the short straw gets the reactor cause there is no way to decide which place is safer.

As someone once said to me... garbage.

There is a little concept called probability. You build on a flood plain probably you will get flooded. Build on a major fault line and there is more of a probability of an earthquake levelling your structure than if you don't. Build on the coast and there is a higher probability that a really big wave or surge will hit you than if you build in the interior.

Certainly at the present it is not possible to predict when and where Mother Earth will turn violent but it is certainly possible now to state statistically which areas are more likely to be affected.

Brian

But there again Brian, this is about mathematics !


Cheers

[CraigS]

Originally Posted by yusufcam

the animals sensing natural disasters appears to be an idea that members of the scientific community are taking an interest in rather than dismissing.

the mathematical certainty of unpredictability, one could say as logically, is that they have yet to figured it out.

With the mathematical unpredictability … one could say logically that they may never figure out how to predict it !

… and that's regardless of how much we learn about it, from the present day observations. If we can never know precisely, the initial conditions of the process, then we can never predict the outcome ! If the outcomes we see are fractal in nature, then all of what I have said, applies.

Originally Posted by yusufcam

i suppose i lean towards the idea that its an unknown rather than unpredictable.

i'll stop here ...

That's cool Colin .. its an interesting area, and very much counterintuitive for me.
I have no agendas other that to project the perspective, for consideration.

I also lean towards it being 'unknown'.
However, I'll also rise to wrap my mind around the certainty that we will never know, and make plans on that basis (as well as a bit of intuition/curiosity, etc ).

Counterintuitive overall however, to say the least.

Cheers & Rgds

[yusufcam (Colin)]

Originally Posted by CraigS

With the mathematical unpredictability … one could say logically that they may never figure out how to predict it !

… and that's regardless of how much we learn about it, from the present day observations. If we can never know precisely, the initial conditions of the process, then we can never predict the outcome ! If the outcomes we see are fractal in nature, then all of what I have said, applies.



That's cool Colin .. its an interesting area, and very much counterintuitive for me.
I have no agendas other that to project the perspective, for consideration.

I also lean towards it being 'unknown'.
However, I'll also rise to wrap my mind around the certainty that we will never know, and make plans on that basis (as well as a bit of intuition/curiosity, etc ).

Counterintuitive overall however, to say the least.

Cheers & Rgds

we are in agreement then......

life can be interesting