Extra-terrestrials (Aliens) - A Poll

[Manav (Yugant)]

probability = 1

[Baron von Richthofen (Vaclav)]

Most all life on other planets through out the universe would have developed similar to our planet, intelligent life would have developed on a similar line to us, the strongest at the tip of a sword and just as violent, because that is what is required to survive and we have not changed just the sword

[ngcles]

Hi All,

Without empirical evidence to prove the case in either direction, we can really only make a best guess here. The passage of time might provide some evidence or even a definitive answer ... equally, it might not.

I wasn't aware of Ward's work or the other proponents for the stance he takes. For what it's worth, based on the wiki article, I think his position is well reasoned out. I find it very persuasive if not compelling.

I'll have to try and hunt-down that book -- looks very interesting. Many have legitimately argued that a calculation that supports your (perhaps pre-determined??) position is pretty easy to contrive one way or the other. The number of factors we are prepared to include (or discard) in the probability calculation and their apparent rarity (or otherwise) of their being co-incident at the one place at the one time will dramatically affect the final answer (guesstimate) you get, as will how in turn you estimate the rarity of each of those individual factors you include.

There have in the past been some lively discussions on this forum on closely related topics here:

http://www.iceinspace.com.au/forum/s...+common&page=3

and here:

http://www.iceinspace.com.au/forum/s...ad.php?t=34210

where there are a number of interesting, witty and highly readable contributions from a range of the people on this forum.

Personally, I find it fascinating that there is such an incredibly broad spectrum of opinion. Could that super-wide range merely be a reflection of the paucity of empirical evidence one way or the other???

I voted rare or singular.


Best,

Les D

[joe_smith]

I also voted extremely unlikely, based on the way they think life was kick started here (by random events) on earth and the odds were stack up against us at the very start. What gets me is how anyone with a logical mind thinks that the drake equation is the holy grail for life out there. They use it as a magic formula for proof that the formula proves life is out there, but then these same people dismiss the paranormal because of the same lack of proof.

If life is flourishing in the universe and is as common as people think and have faith in then, that if true makes me think that the universe IS set up for the sole purpose to contain that life. Every action in the universe must have a cause and if life can only come from life which is so far the only proven way, then life must of been created with the universe in some type of form at the begining.

As the master said "Why are we here?, were did we come from?" will we ever find out I don't think we can.
we only have five senses to wonder the secrets of the entire universe and most of those things we will never be able fully grasp and will never know truth. To the universe we are blind and we can only have faith in what we perceive as the truth in "Why are we here?, were did we come from?" let alone if its also out there.

[DavidU (Dave)]

Perhaps I aim too low however I would be thrilled just to see some basic bacteria found in a meteorite or Mars etc.

[Ric]

Don't know what it is or what it looks like but it's out there somewhere.

[Davros (Lauren)]

Infinite diversity in infinite combination. Also the string theorists would argue for infinite dimensional realities.

[renormalised (Carl)]

"Extraterrestrials"....don't think we need too many more people on this planet, there's enough already

[GrampianStars (Rob)]

What ! Your all telling me scientology is a fraud ?
Kneel before Xenu, the dictator of the "Galactic Confederacy" who, 75 million years ago, brought billions of his people to Earth in a DC-8-like spacecraft
all those thousands of rich and powerful believers are having the same mass delusion !

No can't be surely!

[GrampianStars (Rob)]

Jesus was an Alien
well he couldn't be killed though the Church tried
Oh! and he flew just like Superman

[TrevorW]

"It's life Jimmy but not a we know it"

highly probable considering we are here, it would be the height of arrogance to think otherwise

[FredSnerd (Claude)]

Gee I must admit this result surprises me. I thought it would be the tuther way round. You know 10% say yes ETs exist and 90% say no or extremely unlikely. I wonder if the result would be different if those in the real world (not just people with an interest in astronomy) did the poll.

[ngcles]

Hi Claude,

Originally Posted by FredSnerd

Gee I must admit this result surprises me. I thought it would be the tuther way round. You know 10% say yes ETs exist and 90% say no or extremely unlikely. I wonder if the result would be different if those in the real world (not just people with an interest in astronomy) did the poll.

I might well be wrong Claude, but maybe you have misread the intent of the question?

I don't think the question is asking whether Earth and/or Humans have been "visited" by E.T, but rather whether E.T (which I take to mean (1)advanced, multi-cellular, (2) self-aware life capable of abstract thought, communicating thoughts and ideas by speech, (3) capable of making and using tools to perform tasks and (4) manipulating their environment to their species' advantage) exists somewhere other than our home planet.

If the question is asking whether E.T visits here on Earth, I'd probably expect 90% of people on this forum would answer no and 10% or likely somewhat less answer yes.

If instead (as I interpret) it asks whether he exists somewhere (somewhen?) I'd expect a reversal of percentages -- but personally I still vote rare/extremely unlikely (at the highest) on both counts.

If it were the public at large, I'd probably expect a percentage approaching 100 would vote that E.T exists somewhere (somewhen?) and maybe 30-40%would say we have/are being visited.

Did you misread/misinterpret?


Best,

Les D

[FredSnerd (Claude)]

Yes Les, I wonder if without actually realising it there was an element of that in my thinking and thefore my surprise. Thanks I appreciate you pointing that out.

[Morepower (Craig)]

I voted "More probable than not" and am leaning toward "99.9%". It's not only what I believe, it is also what I would really like to be true as well. I feel it would be a very sad day if it were ever proven we were the only inteligent life in the entire Universe.

I doubt we have been visited by aliens themselves, but maybe we have been checked out by an automated probe, or the like, sent millions of years ago ? I also have to wonder if we weren't here, given enough time, whether Apes might evolve into something similar to us.

[ngcles]

Hi Morepower & All,

Originally Posted by Morepower

I voted "More probable than not" and am leaning toward "99.9%". It's not only what I believe, it is also what I would really like to be true as well. I feel it would be a very sad day if it were ever proven we were the only inteligent life in the entire Universe.

This is perhaps this is just a little off the topic of the poll, and if so I apologise to the moderators & readers. This is in no way intended as a criticism of people's views (to which they are completely entitled as well as basic respect). But I wonder if you can answer me this ...

A great many of people I've met over the years and several people in this thread have said that they would be sad or upset etc if it turned out we were the only intelligent life in the sector/galaxy/local group/Universe. It is a fact that a lot of people feel this way. But ...

What I want to understand is why it would make you (them) sad or upset etc? Why would it be a sad thing to be the only/first intelligent beings in the Universe?

Maybe it's the "only child" in me saying this but: So what if we're alone?

Would your opinion change if instead you believed the aliens out there were mean, nasty and want to take your resources, kill your daughters, rape your sons and enslave you? If they are out there, what makes you necessarily think they will be friendly, helpful, loving, giving and caring? That they will give us the technology they have -- gratis and unravel for us the apparent contradictions we see in physics etc without us lifting a finger?

Maybe if they did land, they might see us as a bunch of no-hopers, kill us all and then conduct their high-level negotiations with the chimpanzes the dolphins or the lizards? Do you think they are going to be more spiritually or philosophically "enlightened" than us? What is the basis for that belief? How does solving the riddles of interstellar travel necessarily make them enlightened, wise, loving, caring and giving? Maybe they will be, maybe they won't be -- who knows?

Lots of people have said that if it were proved, it would transform humanity. What I want to know really is why and how? If we knew other beings were out there, how does it help us fix the problems we face or even see them in a different light? Or do we think they are simply going to pop over and solve all the problems we've created for ourselves? If 500 ships suddenly materialised in our skies and started zapping everyone with their "definit-kill-cannons" so they can re-settle our planet with their own kind, that would certainly be "transforming". What makes you think there is simply no-way they could possibly be hell-bent on conquest?

If E.T did send us an unambiguous greeting tonight would all current wars stop? Would Robert Mugabe stop his genocide and driving Zimbabwe into the dirt and say "oh well now, this changes everything!" Would it solve our energy problems? Would racism stop? Would it cause the opposing forces of politics to shake hands across the table and take a bi-partisan cooperative stance on everything? Would crime stop? Drug usage? Late-running public transport? The economy? Would the banks stop ripping us off? How would this world be better or how would it be transformed if we knew E.T. was out there?

Could it be that your hope that we are not alone is colouring your opinion that we are or are not. Have a hard think about it and consider whether your opinion is or isn't an extension of wishful thinking? If you feel it might be, is that "wishful thinking" realistic?

Whether we have company, lots of company or we are alone does not affect me emotionally at all. For me, at this stage the question is a simple matter of probability. If it happens we don't have company, I'm okay with that. If we do have company, I'm okay with that too -- and I hope sincerely "they" are "okay" with our presence here. How, and more particularly why does it/doesn't it affect you emotionally?

Sorry to introduce such a heavily philosophical take on this topic on Melbourne Cup night! But I'm intrigued about why people would be sad.

Oh, and by the way here is a really credible newspaper report from the Sun in the UK that is said to prove that a buffalo was beamed up into a spaceship over England. That's both the headline and the conclusion of the "UFO researchers". Apparently the fact that the actual farmer is missing no cattle and the that the farm is adjacent to a military base (where you might expect unexplained lights in the sky) has little relevance to the final conclusion ...

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage...a-buffalo.html


Best,

Les D

[renormalised (Carl)]

Why would it be a sad thing to be the only/first intelligent beings in the Universe?

It wouldn't, but I can see that it would be greatly to our advantage if we were Knowing how we think, I can imagine just how we'd lord it over our lesser fellow beings if we were to come upon them in our travels. Prime Directive....pffft!!! There'd be all manner of subverting, converting and perverting going on

[Omaroo (Chris Malikoff)]

Originally Posted by Morepower

I also have to wonder if we weren't here, given enough time, whether Apes might evolve into something similar to us.

??? Huh?

[TJD (Trevor)]

i think so........ we can tell there intelegent because there not coming here.

why should we care,i'm shore that they don't realy care about us other wise we would be seing them more often: earth:

[gaa_ian (Ian)]

"and pray that there is intelligent life somewhere out in space ......"
To quote those masters of wit .... Monty Python !