Omg ---> Fuel Prices!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[tbentley]

I'd like to say I feel your pain....actually I'm quite glad that I can't.

Luckily work pays for all my fuel including private kilometres. If I had to pay for the work km's I'd be better off on the dole for sure.

We're paying around $1.90 for diesel here in Port Hedland (up to $2 in some other towns I visit) and I'm averaging around 1000km per week for work and private use. Getting only 7km per litre (it's a new Patrol still running in with lots of wind catching accessories) it's getting near $300 a week.


Of course the wife also has a car but it's a new Micra which has a fuel tank the size of one of my cylinders so that hardly hurts a bit. A tank lasts her about a month as everything is within about 15kms unless you're heading out of town for which we use the work car.

I feel sorry for the grey nomads who saved all their lives for their one big trip and now can't afford it because of the fuel price. Poor buggers.

[edwardsdj (Doug)]

Originally Posted by acropolite

Then again if fuel gets even more expensive this may be the last affordable trip opportunity.

I just worked writing software in the petroleum industry for almost five years. A few observations:

1. The days of finding large fields have been over for a couple of decades;
2. The oil companies keep downgrading thier estimates of the oil recoverable from thier reserves (Shell by 30% a few years ago);
3. No major survey by Western oil companies has been done in Saudi since the 1950s - odds are they have far less than they would like to have us believe;
4. The discoveries that are being made are a huge technical challenge (like drilling in 5km of water); and
5. World demand continues to increase every day - particularly from the rapidly growing Chinese economy.

Put all of this together and petrol prices are only going to go up and at an accelerating rate.

How long did it take for petrol to go from 50c/L to $1/L? About a decade I would say.

How long from $1/L to $1.50/L? About six months.

How long from $2/L to $5/L? Probably only a couple of years - no matter how much spin the industry puts on it.

Unlike previous oil shocks which were caused by supply manipulation, it is simply legitimate market forces driving this. Voters are screaming for more roads to ease traffic congestion today. Very soon they will be alarmed at the poor state of the public transport system as we look around at empty roads.

Anyway, my two cents

Have fun,
Doug

[Ian Robinson]

Originally Posted by tbentley

I'd like to say I feel your pain....actually I'm quite glad that I can't.

Luckily work pays for all my fuel including private kilometres. If I had to pay for the work km's I'd be better off on the dole for sure.

We're paying around $1.90 for diesel here in Port Hedland (up to $2 in some other towns I visit) and I'm averaging around 1000km per week for work and private use. Getting only 7km per litre (it's a new Patrol still running in with lots of wind catching accessories) it's getting near $300 a week.

I hear house prices in Hedland are outrageous too (as bad as in Sydney). So I presume you are in company subsidized family rental housing. Or are in one of those little old houses in the Port or in Sth Hedland (one of backwards houses).


Of course the wife also has a car but it's a new Micra which has a fuel tank the size of one of my cylinders so that hardly hurts a bit. A tank lasts her about a month as everything is within about 15kms unless you're heading out of town for which we use the work car.

I feel sorry for the grey nomads who saved all their lives for their one big trip and now can't afford it because of the fuel price. Poor buggers.

I got quite a shock when I worked at the HBI plant when I saw the price people were paying for fuel in Hedland .... but everyone I met there was on big money too , including me , and I didn't have to pay for rent, electricity, aircon,rates , just food and petrol money ..... bloody hot there in summer too so aircon is essential in the home and in the car.

[GTB_an_Owl (Geoff)]

I went into a petrol station today and
Asked for five dollars worth of gas.
The attendant farted and gave me a receipt.

[jjjnettie (Jeanette)]

[Gargoyle_Steve (Steve)]

I'm as concerned about the rising price of fuel as the next man, in some cases more so as I DO like to take my thirsty 4WD away with a load of camping gear / astro equipment / me and my girl for a bush escape / country drive, etc.... HOWEVER I have to say for some time I have been MUCH more concerned about what happens when the fuel does actually get very expensive / very scarce, and I am NOT talking about all of us and our little cars, etc. Though not as affordable or accessible (yet) there ARE other options like hybrid/electric's, biodiesel or variations thereof, hydrogen fuel cells, eventually even solar, that are capable of being developed further and introduced on a widespread basis.


What has been bothering me for some time now, and I don't hear anyone in authority / government / etc making any plans or even talking about this, is what happens to OTHER modes of transport.

Now I know that what I'm talking about here is some way down the track, and please take all of this in the manner in which it is offered, ie a bit tongue in cheek but with grains of serious concern on my part.


When there is no longer sufficient and affordable fuel to fill the fuel tanks of thirsty aircraft there ARE no current alternatives that I'm aware of - no solar planes (yes, I have seen the 'gliders', no they don't carry freight or hundreds of people). There are no steam powered planes, no "real" full sized electric planes, no nuclear planes (?).

Forget any overseas travel for business or holidays, forget fast international freight, for that matter forget travelling interstate for a 2 day seminar, weekend away in Adelaide, etc, unless you're already nearby & taking the horse and cart! Forget getting back to the motherland to see the family unless it's a 6-12 month sea journey. (Depending on your particular motherland of course.)

What about ships?? e use them for freight and travel (slow as they are), are we going to be able to fill a huge diesel powered ship to bring us our "essentials" from overseas? At least nuclear powered ships may be an option, I don't care to think about the increased risk posed by having tens of thousands of nuclear powered ships roaming the seas. Return to coal fired steam ships?? Probably, desperate people may do desperate things - until the coal runs out of course.

So - barring the widespread rise of nuclear powered freighters forget any imports from overseas unless delivered by sailing ship ("yes I can send you that eyepiece, expect it around August 2009"), forget any bulk imports at all for things we don't produce here in Australia - so forget almost all electronic gear (tv's, DVD players, computers, etc), forget most cars, forget any food imports, industrial imports, forget many things that you probably conside rto be "Essential" in yoru day to day life at present .... forget it unless you can wait for it, and pay for it, to arrive by sailing vessel.

Forget any new astro gear!


I'm saddened by the lack of funding that we see being put towards alternatives for our day to day vehicles, but what happens when the fuel REALLY runs out and we are once again here in Australia an isolated land mass far away from the rest of the world?

We need 2 things - real alternative fuel technologies, and increased and improved manufacturing within this country to help make us more "independent", at least before my 'mythical' fuel crunch really arrives.

Someone tell me I'm wrong, someone tell me that new alternatives are already in the development pipeline, and they will be ready before this happens.....

Someone....

[Ian Robinson]

Maybe international travel will become a thing of the past unless you are ultra wealthy , and any mass international travel will resort back to sea travel , perhaps by high speed ocean liners (no reason why this can't happen and it's certainly more fuel efficient to transport several thousand people at a time , or several hundred thousand tons of what ever by sea than by air.

Nor is there any real reason why the hydrogen cycle can't be rolled out over a very short period (under a decade) if the will and desire is there - it's Big Oil and car manufacturers who are dragging the chain on this. Ineffectual national governments of all complexions have a lot to answer for too.

No reason why ships can't use hydrogen as fuel , they are surrounded and float on rich source of the stuff.

[Gargoyle_Steve (Steve)]

I agree entirely Ian, but if we are still using ships to carry cargo everywhere what is it that these freighters or the high speed ocean liners will be using as a fuel source?

When the fuel runs low and the price jumps astronomically (VERY deliberate pun ) who can afford to pay 5 times, 10 times, 50 times as much for freight on an item as what it costs us now to import by ship?

[Ian Robinson]

Originally Posted by Gargoyle_Steve

I agree entirely Ian, but if we are still using ships to carry cargo everywhere what is it that these freighters or the high speed ocean liners will be using as a fuel source?

When the fuel runs low and the price jumps astronomically (VERY deliberate pun ) who can afford to pay 5 times, 10 times, 50 times as much for freight on an item as what it costs us now to import by ship?

Well --- why not H2 from the water they are floating on.

Big ships could easily draw in sea water as they go along and extract hydrogen from the desalinated water . Hydrogen combustion has a nice energy density , and is also clean.

[Gargoyle_Steve (Steve)]

That's the kind of thinking that should help find new alternatives, but between desalinating the water, extracting the gases (by electrolysis?) and separating them to combust the hydrogen is that an energy efficient process overall? Do you have any links or information about this, is anyone looking into it at present, are there any scaled versions in action? I'd love to see any further info or links you may have.

[Alchemy (Clive)]

Originally Posted by edwardsdj

I just worked writing software in the petroleum industry for almost five years. A few observations:

1. The days of finding large fields have been over for a couple of decades;
2. The oil companies keep downgrading thier estimates of the oil recoverable from thier reserves (Shell by 30% a few years ago);
3. No major survey by Western oil companies has been done in Saudi since the 1950s - odds are they have far less than they would like to have us believe;
4. The discoveries that are being made are a huge technical challenge (like drilling in 5km of water); and
5. World demand continues to increase every day - particularly from the rapidly growing Chinese economy.

Put all of this together and petrol prices are only going to go up and at an accelerating rate.

How long did it take for petrol to go from 50c/L to $1/L? About a decade I would say.

How long from $1/L to $1.50/L? About six months.

How long from $2/L to $5/L? Probably only a couple of years - no matter how much spin the industry puts on it.

Unlike previous oil shocks which were caused by supply manipulation, it is simply legitimate market forces driving this. Voters are screaming for more roads to ease traffic congestion today. Very soon they will be alarmed at the poor state of the public transport system as we look around at empty roads.

Anyway, my two cents

Have fun,
Doug

everything you say makes sense and is quite frankly scary..... collapse of world economies is the likely result as we have an economy that needs oil to run, and no readily viable alternatives exist in usable amounts.

im already paying 1000 dollars a month for fuel, free quotes are going to become a thing of the past as i have to travel to inspect a project.

[acropolite (Phil)]

Originally Posted by Steve

What has been bothering me for some time now, and I don't hear anyone in authority / government / etc making any plans or even talking about this, is what happens to OTHER modes of transport.

Govenments have been pandering to the oil companies (an other big businesses) for decades. It's not as though we didn't know this was coming. There will come a time, hopefully before it's too late, when Joe Average realises that both major parties simply represent 2 different flavours of the same greed and corruption and will vote in people who are prepared to take the necessary action to prepare us for a sustainable future. The oil companies have scuttled any development of cars run on renewables, now they wait with hands outstretched as supply exceeds demand and reap the benefits. The coal companies seem to be successfully drawing money from the Australian taxpayer while renewables get little support. There was an Australian inventor driving a hydrogen powered car in the late 60's btw.

[PCH (Paul)]

Originally Posted by acropolite

Govenments have been pandering to the oil companies (an other big businesses) for decades. It's not as though we didn't know this was coming. There will come a time, hopefully before it's too late, when Joe Average realises that both major parties simply represent 2 different flavours of the same greed and corruption and will vote in people who are prepared to take the necessary action to prepare us for a sustainable future. The oil companies have scuttled any development of cars run on renewables, now they wait with hands outstretched as supply exceeds demand and reap the benefits. The coal companies seem to be successfully drawing money from the Australian taxpayer while renewables get little support. There was an Australian inventor driving a hydrogen powered car in the late 60's btw.

If anyone has any doubt about this, think again. I read a book 20 years ago called "The Seven Sisters". It was about the way in which the world's top 7 oil companies (BP, Shell, Exxon etc) manipulate government policy. It was going on then, and there's no reason to suggest things will have changed.

Cheers,

[Ian Robinson]

Originally Posted by Gargoyle_Steve

That's the kind of thinking that should help find new alternatives, but between desalinating the water, extracting the gases (by electrolysis?) and separating them to combust the hydrogen is that an energy efficient process overall? Do you have any links or information about this, is anyone looking into it at present, are there any scaled versions in action? I'd love to see any further info or links you may have.

I am not sure if anyone is considering using insitu H2 extraction to fuel large ships .... doubt it , unless fuel becomes a lot more expensive .

I know Linde build packet (off the shelf) H2 plants of a variety of sizes as H2 is widely used in many industries.

The energy density in high pressure H2 is more than adequate to have effective and efficient combustion plants (even on the micro scale as in cars).

[Ian Robinson]

Originally Posted by PCH

If anyone has any doubt about this, think again. I read a book 20 years ago called "The Seven Sisters". It was about the way in which the world's top 7 oil companies (BP, Shell, Exxon etc) manipulate government policy. It was going on then, and there's no reason to suggest things will have changed.

Cheers,

Especially that middle eastern oil cartel (the Saudis and their cronnies), who manipulate supply in such a manner as to keep oil prices per barrel high , and who probably have pet speculators who bid the price of oil up too.
They are a bigger threat to the world (economically and stability) than terrorism and al Quaeda ever was or ever will be , even the whitehouse cowtows to them.

[edwardsdj (Doug)]

Originally Posted by Ian Robinson

The energy density in high pressure H2 is more than adequate to have effective and efficient combustion plants (even on the micro scale as in cars).

The "dirty little secret" of hydrogren is that in while it can be extracted from the electrolysis of water, this requires a vast amount of engery. In practice it is extracted from natural gas.

[Nuri]

I believe the answer could be "Helium 3" (discovered by an Aussie in 1934 BTW!). It is rare on Earth but there is about 1 million tons of it on the Moon, which is apparently enough to power the entire Earth for a 1000 years via "Helium 3 Fusion", many times more potent than nuclear energy and also much cleaner. See this June,2000 article for more info. The recent spark of interest in missions to the Moon by USA, China and others is no coincidence, especially since this interest has been dormant for 25 years!

[Ian Robinson]

Originally Posted by edwardsdj

The "dirty little secret" of hydrogren is that in while it can be extracted from the electrolysis of water, this requires a vast amount of engery. In practice it is extracted from natural gas.

Umm .... basic REDOX chemistry , no external power supply required to get H2 gas when you use the right catalyst.
Drop a bit of zinc into acid , hey presto , you get hydrogen generated.

ie
pure metal Cu(s) + 2HCl(aq) → CuCl2(aq) + H2(g)

Other ways shown here ; http://freeenergynews.com/Directory/Hydrogen/

[Ian Robinson]

Originally Posted by Nuri

I believe the answer could be "Helium 3" (discovered by an Aussie in 1934 BTW!). It is rare on Earth but there is about 1 million tons of it on the Moon, which is apparently enough to power the entire Earth for a 1000 years via "Helium 3 Fusion", many times more potent than nuclear energy and also much cleaner. See this June,2000 article for more info. The recent spark of interest in missions to the Moon by USA, China and others is no coincidence, especially since this interest has been dormant for 25 years!

Fusion is decades away .... if ever, and will likely be extraordinarily expensive (perhaps not something may nations can afford).

[edwardsdj (Doug)]

Originally Posted by Ian Robinson

Umm .... basic REDOX chemistry , no external power supply required to get H2 gas when you use the right catalyst.
Drop a bit of zinc into acid , hey presto , you get hydrogen generated.

ie
pure metal Cu(s) + 2HCl(aq) → CuCl2(aq) + H2(g)

Other ways shown here ; http://freeenergynews.com/Directory/Hydrogen/

While there are many ways of producing hydrogen gas (it accumulates in lead-acid bateries for example) steam reforming of methane is at present the dominant mehtod of producing hydrogren on an industrial scale.