As ReidG says " Australia is probably particularly difficult because of our generally poorly engineered and maintained roads.'
Some of us live in rural locations with generally unsealed roads, frequently narrow,
I find the main hazards are kangaroos, fallen trees sheep and the rare oncoming traffic.
At harvest time the traffic mainly consists of road trains carting grain, they take all the formed road. When autonomous vehicles can cope with these and decide whether to drive over the tree or round it on or off the formed road (or go home and get a chainsaw) they are of no use here.
Chris
PS The upside of living here is that my back yard ob is under bortle 1 sky
As ReidG says " Australia is probably particularly difficult because of our generally poorly engineered and maintained roads.'
Some of us live in rural locations with generally unsealed roads, frequently narrow,
I find the main hazards are kangaroos, fallen trees sheep and the rare oncoming traffic.
At harvest time the traffic mainly consists of road trains carting grain, they take all the formed road. When autonomous vehicles can cope with these and decide whether to drive over the tree or round it on or off the formed road (or go home and get a chainsaw) they are of no use here.
Chris
PS The upside of living here is that my back yard ob is under bortle 1 sky
Chris, you are one very lucky guy. I have driven past your way at night, those pitch black bortle 1 skies are to die for!
Agreed Chris, love to see then compete with a Road Train
Apparently two more have come to grief, one just stopped for no reason and caused a 8 car pile up, and one ended up into a pool, overseas somewhere.
I will just drive my Car till I am to old, and that might not be so far away.
What happens is still the responsibility of the guy in the drivers seat, read the fine print on what the manufacturer says not the vastly optimistic PR nonsense.
I suppose that is the crux of it. If I am responsible for whatever happens when some software engineer makes a typo or some "edge" case of 16 different things happening occurs (The old OH&S swiss cheese model) then leave the job to me thanks. I will live with some simple things like radar assisted cruise control (Though having one car with it and one which you drive less which is without it leads to moments as you realise it is not going to settle in behind the car at a good distance) Autonomous braking I am less keen on due to my experiences of it getting in a flap over turning cars etc, I hate the feel of lane keep assist tweakign the steering etc...
If you "Need" autonomous braking or lane keeping assistance then you are likely either too tired or just not concentrating on the job and you should just stop, not let the car take over the housekeeping stuff.
In extreme situations there will be a robot travelling in front off the autonomous vehicle at walking pace carrying a red flag.
Alex
This is what they did when cars first started to replace horses!
Quote:
Originally Posted by astro744
How would an autonomous vehicle handle a flood situation with countless potholes and water up to the edge of the road for hundreds of metres or even kms on both sides and on a road with no breakdown lane either side with a 110km/h speed limit.
.
I have over 35 years driving experience, but i'm just a suburban boy and would struggle to come to terms with the situation described, let alone a less experienced, or dare i say 'competent'? human driver.
I'm thinking of some possible benefits when it comes to say driving the the big smoke, where infrastructure is better, and traffic is worse.
- the reason we leave a 2-3 second gap between cars is the generally poor reaction time of our puny human circuits trying to trigger our slow muscles.
In Manufacturing, AI can monitor products on a production line, and react in milliseconds, removing faulty products from the line.
If cars could autonomously brake based upon data such as the brake lights, or perhaps data from cars all around (maybe 6 cars in front) we could reduce this gap and get better traffic flow.
- with the same sensors, cars could leave the lights in a 'train' and get more cars through the lights in one go, rather than waiting for dopey up the front to get a-movin'
- if cars could all talk to each other, they could detect a rogue car about to run a red, and stop traffic from entering its path.
- with the same 'chatting' ability maybe we dont need lights at all, and traffic could be calculated to run without stopping.
These are pretty basic examples, and i'm sure wouldn't survive close scrutiny, but are worth thinking about - computer systems would be able to cope with these scenarios.
A friend brought this new Mercedes electric by yesterday so a test drive was in order.
As with the other electrics it is an easy and fun car to drive with no noticeable problems in any department.
Sitting there anxiously watching a computer try to drive is far far more stress than actually driving the car myself. Humans are terrible at sitting watching, the mind drifts off to more interesting things. Computers are excellent at watching humans however, they do not get bored or distracted.
My solution is drive the Tesla myself and have fun and if anyone ever does get a self driving system which works for the general case I can get it then. I do not expect to live long enough to have to worry about that, it may take 25 years. It may never happen given the complexity of reality.
One of the major sponsors for autonomous vehicle, aircraft, ships and
robots over the decades has been DARPA - the Defense Advanced Research
Projects Agency which is a research and development agency of the United
States Department of Defense responsible for the development of emerging
technologies for use by the US military.
These are the same people that helped bring about the Internet, GPS
and the stealth bomber.
Now and then they offer prize money for successfully completing one
of their DARPA Challenges, such as a successful demonstration of
autonomous driving.
In February last year, DARPA, Lockheed-Martin and Sikorsky demonstrated
an autonomous Blackhawk helicopter running sorties by ferrying loads.
Interested readers can learn more about that here including a short video :- https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us...wk-flight.html
Compared to civilian autonomous vehicle demands and requirements,
the smarts required for military vehicles is a double-edge sword.
For example, whereas as a tank in a combat engagement doesn't need to
bother with traffic lights and which way to go around a roundabout,
it still has to deal with getting over or around obstacles such as dunes,
tank traps, trenches and so on that are arguably as nuanced and
computationally difficult as a civilian car deciding what to do about
potholes, or a turtle crossing the road.
For me, by far the biggest technological advancement in the year 2022
was the huge improvements in AI neural network systems in particular
with language models and text to image systems.
What we now know is given rich enough training sets, neural networks
show great practical promise. In the future, purpose built neural networks
are likely to play a large part in self-driving cars.
For example, the training set may end up being sensors and cameras
from countless trips with humans at the wheel. Hundreds of millions of miles,
from thousands of drivers, in cities and roads across the world, encountering
everything from those pesky cyclists in a peloton to a roadblock and an armed
hold-up event in some suburb of Beirut.
Question: More, or less stressful than sitting there watching a Learner try to drive?
Well I have sort of tested that.
When I had a teenager with zero driving experience driving my Tesla we came across a horse. I suspect an automated system would have been in something of a quandary because it possibly had no idea what a horse is.
The learner driver handled it without concern or needing advice. She knew a lot about horses already, she also recognized that it had a rider who was an adult and clearly in control and on the other side of the road on the grass verge. She slowed down and moved to the left. Analysis completed and response implemented in a fraction of a second.
I have been using neural nets since last century and they have developed and improved. They can do great work under certain circumstances but so far they have zero capability to come to reasoned conclusions. Teenage drivers can do that.
This is the big challenge ahead in using neural nets and other software to handle driving. They are trained using vast data sets and really can do some very useful things better than humans. However our roads offer almost infinite possibilities for the unexpected. The expected is easy and the AI can be trained but it has no idea what to do when presented with the unfamiliar. As Elon Musk noted somewhat sadly after a bit of a fail in automation, 'humans are much underrated'.
When I had a teenager with zero driving experience driving my Tesla we came across a horse. I suspect an automated system would have been in something of a quandary because it possibly had no idea what a horse is.
The learner driver handled it without concern or needing advice. She knew a lot about horses already, she also recognized that it had a rider who was an adult and clearly in control and on the other side of the road on the grass verge. She slowed down and moved to the left. Analysis completed and response implemented in a fraction of a second.
I have been using neural nets since last century and they have developed and improved. They can do great work under certain circumstances but so far they have zero capability to come to reasoned conclusions. Teenage drivers can do that.
This is the big challenge ahead in using neural nets and other software to handle driving. They are trained using vast data sets and really can do some very useful things better than humans. However our roads offer almost infinite possibilities for the unexpected. The expected is easy and the AI can be trained but it has no idea what to do when presented with the unfamiliar. As Elon Musk noted somewhat sadly after a bit of a fail in automation, 'humans are much underrated'.
If you ask it for a recipe for an omelette, it’ll probably do a good job, but that doesn’t mean it knows what an omelette is.
Your appeal to authority is a classic no no when you apply the rules of logical fallacy but perhaps more so when you use Elton Musk as the authority as I suspect if you farmed his comments you may find he is more supportive of AI than you suggest.but It seems that you missed the point that Gary was trying to put on the table with your claim that AI has no idea what to do when presented with the unfamiliar given his last paragraph...it would seem that it will be the human that has the problem of "the unfamilar".
Perhaps the main thing to remember is the development of autonomous vehicles is a process and it is going very well and although folk argue against it the reality is like so many new inventions some folk will rail against them for no other reason then they have difficulty in accommodating change often evidenced by their inability to lay out specific issues that can not be overcome and further fail to realise that problems will only define the area of ultimate application of a new technology...the problems are invariably overcome or managed and change takes place leaving those resisting change the future objects of ridicule for their short sighted comments.
I do not regard Musk as an authority More a lose canon who has done some good things but also made some big mistakes. A typical entrepreneur really taking big risks sometimes with other people's money.
Mr Musk is fallible as the rest of us really, just a lot braver. He did have a huge push to go for total automation on the initial Model 3 production line and had to back off which is when he made the comment about humans. Humans have admirable flexibility and can adapt to the unexpected better than any current automated driving system which is why there are no Class 5 systems out there yet.
Evolution has prepared humans fairly well for the task of driving. We all have ancestors who were successful hunter gatherers, they detected and reacted to threats like predators whilst being effective predators themselves. The unsuccessful ones did not have descendants. Driving is not all that dissimilar and nor is playing football. Those involved need to be aware of the world around them and react to often subtle signs which requires experience and reasoning to reduce false conclusions.
For Australians the difference between a tree stump and a kangaroo can be quite important and there is not time for a really good look. It is that sort of reasoning which for the moment at least has evaded most AI. They cannot yet draw conclusions and as one US expert (I am not) noted, it might be better to call the current state of the art Advanced Statistics.
I do not regard Musk as an authority More a lose canon who has done some good things but also made some big mistakes. A typical entrepreneur really taking big risks sometimes with other people's money.
Mr Musk is fallible as the rest of us really, just a lot braver. He did have a huge push to go for total automation on the initial Model 3 production line and had to back off which is when he made the comment about humans. Humans have admirable flexibility and can adapt to the unexpected better than any current automated driving system which is why there are no Class 5 systems out there yet.
Evolution has prepared humans fairly well for the task of driving. We all have ancestors who were successful hunter gatherers, they detected and reacted to threats like predators whilst being effective predators themselves. The unsuccessful ones did not have descendants. Driving is not all that dissimilar and nor is playing football. Those involved need to be aware of the world around them and react to often subtle signs which requires experience and reasoning to reduce false conclusions.
For Australians the difference between a tree stump and a kangaroo can be quite important and there is not time for a really good look. It is that sort of reasoning which for the moment at least has evaded most AI. They cannot yet draw conclusions and as one US expert (I am not) noted, it might be better to call the current state of the art Advanced Statistics.
Which expert and context please..
It seems to me the context in which you injected Mr Musks opinion fits the logical fallacy that I pointed out...I do not know about the man sufficiently to make any comment upon him.
As to evolution preparing us what you say may well be true so it is good that such evolved humans are the folk who write the software and produce these autonomous vehicles. I think you miss the fact that although we call AI as we do it is hardly artificial given the human input.
Now you seem preoccupied with the difference between things such that you seem to think a machine is not capable of being given the required sensors and programing to probably make far better judgement than either of us can...why would you think that a machine can not analyse whatever its constructors instruct it to do?
In any event may I suggest you keep a copy of your comments here and read them say in ten years time and at that point comment on your current opinion.
I have a Tesla model 3 and over the Christmas period we all got a "present" from Tesla of their Enhanced Autopilot (EAP) package which retails for $5k. It allowed us all to try out some of the Full Self Drive (FSD, $10k) enhancements, such as summon mode and autonomous driving on major roads (including things like autonomous lane changing and navigating to your exit. Most drivers would have tried them out I suspect. I did and hated it, but then I don't even use the self steering mode which is standard.
Why do I hate it, well it's a combination of things, but mostly because of the way it steers the car. I find the autopilot's approach to a constant radius curve to be underwhelming, it iteratively attacks the corner, steering into the corner, straigtening up, then turning again, makes me motion sick!
The attempt by the vehicle to negotiate a dual lane merge (where the right lane merges with the left of a freeway and the left lane is added, M8 to M80 inbound in Melbourne) was frightening.
There is a loooong way to go before we have anything that could be called FSD, Tesla should remove the option and refund peoples money.
Here's the things about autopilot (which is very similar to other manufacturer's assistance packages) which don't work...
Does not recognise overhead electronic speed signs.
Phantom braking
Braking unecessarily when vehicles slow or turn in front of you.
Lane keep assist
Lane departure warnings, don't swerve to miss that pothole, kangaroo, (child!), motorcycle with low mounted tail-lights...
Having said all that. I love driving the car, the acceleration is addictive, I'm going to buy and lease another one soon.
I have a Tesla model 3 and over the Christmas period we all got a "present" from Tesla of their Enhanced Autopilot (EAP) package which retails for $5k. It allowed us all to try out some of the Full Self Drive (FSD, $10k) enhancements, such as summon mode and autonomous driving on major roads (including things like autonomous lane changing and navigating to your exit. Most drivers would have tried them out I suspect. I did and hated it, but then I don't even use the self steering mode which is standard.
Why do I hate it, well it's a combination of things, but mostly because of the way it steers the car. I find the autopilot's approach to a constant radius curve to be underwhelming, it iteratively attacks the corner, steering into the corner, straigtening up, then turning again, makes me motion sick!
The attempt by the vehicle to negotiate a dual lane merge (where the right lane merges with the left of a freeway and the left lane is added, M8 to M80 inbound in Melbourne) was frightening.
There is a loooong way to go before we have anything that could be called FSD, Tesla should remove the option and refund peoples money.
Here's the things about autopilot (which is very similar to other manufacturer's assistance packages) which don't work...
Does not recognise overhead electronic speed signs.
Phantom braking
Braking unecessarily when vehicles slow or turn in front of you.
Lane keep assist
Lane departure warnings, don't swerve to miss that pothole, kangaroo, (child!), motorcycle with low mounted tail-lights...
Having said all that. I love driving the car, the acceleration is addictive, I'm going to buy and lease another one soon.
Cheers
Stu
So does Tesla treat owners like guinea pigs and collect data from your vehicles to help them refine onboard systems like the EAP and FSD?
So does Tesla treat owners like guinea pigs and collect data from your vehicles to help them refine onboard systems like the EAP and FSD?
You bet they do! FSD has always been a Beta product since it was first released - and it is being tested by all the owners who have paid for it.
By the way - whether you own a Tesla or not, you are also helping them and other autonomous vehicle designers to improve their systems. Have you ever wondered why so many of those annoying Captcha grids that you need to access some web content require you to identify traffic lights, pedestrian crossings, motor cycles, etc? You didn't think that was just a randomly-generated test, did you? And you didn't think your responses were thrown away as having no value to anybody?
(Although I must admit - I'm puzzled as to what internet billionaire sponsored the last Captcha I had to use, and to what AI training purpose: identify all the Pandas on Armchairs. Has anybody seen a report of a Tesla driving full-speed into a panda sitting on an armchair in the middle of the highway, because it didn't recognise what it was seeing?)
You may have thought that autonomous driving vehicles are only found in other countries, like the USA (Tesla specifically), but I can assure you they are out there on the M1, and other busy high speed roads, in Australia everyday. This does not get much media coverage. I have endured a pretty stressful trip on the M1, at night, in a high end BMW M5, in which much if the trip was under autonomous control of the vehicles systems. My son--in-law was the monitoring driver (hands off).
I have heard from another family member ( the owner if a high end Mercedes) who also has autonomous driving mode, who claims he feels much safer hauling his kids around on these high speed roads with the cars system in control. His argument hinges on the cars ability to react being faster than his, and it cannot be distracted.
What are your thoughts on the use of these autonomous driving systems, in high speed situations on our roads?
The autonomous driving that is legal in Australia atm is really just driving assist tools, such as lane keeping and smart cruise control. The driver is still 100% responsible for the driving and needs to be alert and ready to take full control in an emergency situation. I view these tools in the same way as I view standard cruise control when it was introduced - it is just a tool available to the driver, and the driver still must pay attention and be prepared to take action.
Alot of other arguments in this thread about "what would the AI do in this situation?" are all moot since the driver must be in control of the vehicle. Just as I do not use cruise control on wet roads, the choice to deploy drive assist tools should be made accordingly to the conditions on the road.
More a lose canon who has done some good things but also made some big mistakes. A typical entrepreneur really taking big risks sometimes with other people's money.
