They probably used highly sophisticated modeling on state of the art supercomputers
to forecast the start of the next La Niņa cycle.
I am not sure. I think I will wait for what Paul the Octopus predicts.
Hi Gary, I was so sure Germany would have won the world cup,I should have taken notice of the Octopus, Who needs computers
It can't be much worse than it has been for the first part of the year for observing
Astrofest can never be a write off.
Not while there are so many willing to share their experience and knowledge.
And of course there is always the social aspect.
Where else can you go and talk Astronomy to ANYONE and not have a single eyeball roll?
Picking up from this thread from July of this year, as indicated in this table from the
Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for July,
August and September were strongly positive.
This and other observations indicate we are experiencing a La Niņa event
and the high amounts of rain fall of late along the East Coast are testimony to
this.
In a report issued on 29th Sept 2010, BOM reports -
Quote:
A La Niņa remains well-established in the Pacific. Given the current strength of the event and the outlook from long-range models surveyed by the Bureau, this La Niņa is expected to persist into at least early 2011.
All indicators remain firmly at La Niņa levels. The central Pacific Ocean is cooler than the long-term mean both at and below the surface, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remains strongly positive, trade winds are stronger than normal and cloudiness over the central tropical Pacific continues to be suppressed. Such consistent signals indicate the tropical atmosphere and ocean are now clearly reinforcing each other.
La Niņa periods are generally associated with above normal rainfall during the second half of the year across large parts of Australia, most notably eastern and northern regions. Night time temperatures are historically warmer than average and Tropical Cyclone occurrence for northern Australia is typically higher than normal during the cyclone season (November-April).
A negative IOD event is also underway in the Indian Ocean. Negative IOD events often coincide with La Niņa events, and are often, but not always, associated with above average rainfall over large areas of southern Australia during spring. IOD events generally decay in the months of November and December with the onset of the Australian monsoon.
The Australian rainfall outlook for the December quarter (October to December) favours wetter than average conditions over large parts of the continent, with strongest odds across northern Australia.
The October to December outlook is the result of warm conditions in the Indian Ocean and cool conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, both of which are associated with the current La Niņa event.
Yep, the short-term prognosis for astronmy is poor for the next several months, or so it seems. But as someone who lives in an area that has only recently been taken off the drought-declared list where it had been off-and on for the past 7 years, and who, in that time saw his creeks and dams as dry as a dingo's whatsis and had to water stock from bores and supplement feed because there was no pasture, you cannot overvalue water security. Brisbane's water supply was down to below 16% less than a year ago. Water desalination plants, recycled sewerage etc were all real choices we had to face.
So while it makes it hard to do much astronomy, this rain is saving us from some serious merde.
But as someone who lives in an area that has only recently been taken off the drought-declared list ...
Hi Peter,
Indeed, every cloud has a silver lining as they say, and there are hopes it may
be a bumper year for some Australian farmers.
Great to hear your part of the world is able to re-stock its dams again.
The prospect of a major Australian city ever running out of water is not a pretty one.
Having driven down as far as Albury at the beginning of the floods last month and as
far north as the northern Sunshine Coast a couple of weeks ago, we have noted
the whole region is looking very green and lush.
[QUOTE=AstroJunk;612063]I don't recall spending much time at my eyepiece last Astrofest anyway - most of the time I was hunting down Marples and his chocolate port...
Hmmmm forgotten about that. Between this thread and the weather you and Ron have just inspired me to put off that astro accessory I was thinking about in favor of buying a carton of chocolate port. I thank you all.
We'll drink a drink a drink er um a drinker, dinker. You know where I am going.
Oh and Jonathan please pm me with where to get that special labelled port you had at astrofest.. My first and last smiley.
Hi Gary thank you for bringing those reports, But I am just a little fed up with all this greenery at the moment
A little bit of sunshine would go a long way
All the best to yourself and Mia
Given how unsettled the weather remained in October, the following
probably comes as no surprise and it is cold comfort that there was
an equal record of the SOI for the month.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureau of Meteorology
The SOI has fallen, but remained strongly positive over the last two weeks. The latest (8 November) 30-day SOI value is +16. The monthly value for October was +18, an equal record highest October monthly value as that of October 1956. The SOI has been consistently positive since early April.
The composite RADAR image below from earlier this morning seems
typical of the weather patterns of late, with troughs drawing moist air
from northern latitudes all the way south. These continental-sized
troughs are connecting locations as far apart as Hobart and Cairns.
This year is all the motivation I need to move to Port Hedland.
Alas, as is the case there today as I type, even that part of the world of late seems
only good for nature's own free outdoor mirror washing service.
The south-west of the country seems to be the only corner La Niņa cares to avoid,
where the average rainfall for October in Perth was half the historical average.
Mind you, they are probably running out of drinking water and by now forced to drink
nothing but cold Swan Draught and vintage Margaret River reserves during all-night
observing sessions, but I guess one can't have it both ways.
Alas, as is the case there today as I type, even that part of the world of late seems
only good for nature's own free outdoor mirror washing service.
The south-west of the country seems to be the only corner La Niņa cares to avoid,
where the average rainfall for October in Perth was half the historical average.
Mind you, they are probably running out of drinking water and by now forced to drink
nothing but cold Swan Draught and vintage Margaret River reserves during all-night
observing sessions, but I guess one can't have it both ways.
That looks like a radar glitch, the satpic shows next to no cloud in that area.
That looks like a radar glitch, the satpic shows next to no cloud in that area.
Hi Sab,
Thanks for the follow-up and indeed you are correct in that there was apparently
only light cloud in Port Hedland today which will become mostly cloudy later tonight.
The Broome Met Office kindly inform me that the RADAR returns that at times
appear like storms in that region are a result of temperature inversion layers.
The inversion layers bring about changes in the refractive index.
ABC Kimberley Local Radio very recently interviewed Ben Collins from the
Bureau on the subject and audio and pictures can be found on the ABC web site
here - http://www.abc.net.au/local/photos/2...site=kimberley
. My first and last smiley.
