Do you think global warming is affecting our weather?

[jdb]

Yeah, I know! I think (?) I was trying to be ironic...

Looks like icebergs are the next big thing. See: http://www.universetoday.com/am/publ...p.html?7112005

Not sure about the actual scale of the image, but I guess it was pretty big!
Hopefully not too big...

[slice of heaven]

Originally Posted by jdb

Looks like icebergs are the next big thing

Now it's global cooling

[ving (David)]

without reading the hype of doing any scientific analysis or seeing any reports i can tell that what we seem to have happening in sydney is a "global evening out of temperature". I swear winters arent as cold and summers arent as hot as they once were.

[rumples riot]

Funny the responses so far. Very diverse opinion and that makes it interesting.

I don't entirely base my observations upon that of being a child in the 60's. Rose coloured glasses were popular, but not compulsory.

Its based on many different observations. The conveyor in the Atlantic has slowed significantly due it is supposed by the rapid melting of snow and ice in the artic, the Greenland Ice sheet (where glaciers are moving twice as fast as they were 5 years ago and this is four times as fast as it was 20 years ago) and 50% more fresh water being discharged from the three main rivers into the North Sea. When it stops, there are concerns that winters and summers in Europe will drop by 15 degrees C. That could be devastating.

Other evidence is minor but Golbum's Dam has been dry for many months and they have had level 6 water rationing for this year. The first time in history.

The Rose Ice shelf snapping off huge chunks that have never been witnessed before. We have been watching the antartic for over 100 years. All that fresh water has to dilute the salt water and therefore have some effect on the environment as a whole.

Other factors like it did not rain in South Australia until June 5 this year. First time ever this has happened. Also Islands in the Pacific that were there 20 years ago have been subsumed by the sea. They had been there ever since our kind first mapped them.

America has never had so many Hurricanes in one season that were of such high catagories.

Also things like floods in Brisbane have been alleviated by dams such as the Hinze dam construction projects. Hence, why this has not happened since. Although we have had flooding in SA today that has not happened since 92 and before that in 68.

It must be considered that if Politicians are now starting to use it as a political football and discuss and pushing the use of alternative energy sources, then there must be something in it. Not just milage.

And; finally the fact that the ice cores have been checked and that right now there is more CO2 in the atmosphere than there has been in the last 500,000 years. Everytime we use fossil fuels it must have an effect especially since there are now more people on this planet than there ever has been. So much of the Forest of the world no longer present, those very trees that love CO2. Just putting our heads in the sand and saying it just does not exist is fraught with all sorts of danger. Yes this may all be a variation in the long term climate that has occurred many times in the past. However, what if it is not. If the converyor stops and Europe is hit by the worst winter since recorded history, what will the nah sayer say then. Whoops!!!

[slice of heaven]

Originally Posted by rumples riot

Other factors like it did not rain in South Australia until June 5 this year. First time ever this has happened.

Correction Paul, Murray Bridge had around 4" dumped on it on the 26th of January 2005.

[ving (David)]

er... isn't it flooding in SA atm?

[slice of heaven]

Originally Posted by ving

er... isn't it flooding in SA atm?

Only the Adelaide area I think. Only showers here last night and sunny all day today.

[avandonk]

The evidence for global warming is irrefutable.It is only the fine tuning of the computer models that is in contention.All the climatic models based on accurate observations suggest that weather events will become more severe.

Here are a few symtoms that cannot be ignored.
1 Pack ice retreating in Antartica
2 In the vast northern forests of Canada death of trees due to a beetle that could not survive there normally.These trees have no natural defences against this beetle.This infestation is moving north at an alarming rate.
3 Pack ice dissapearing in the arctic.
4 Glaciers worldwide retreating at never before seen rates.
5 Storms becoming more intense due to the inherent higher energy content of the atmosphere and ocean.
6 The vast permafrost tundra in Russia is melting.Where there were lakes in summer now dry or muddy beds.The water has been soaked up by the now thawed and newly permeable underlying ground.The scariest thing is the new thawed peat moss is now rotting and producing more CO2 than we are!

I could go on.
And I will.

The very scary thing if the ocean currents flip,England would have the climate of Moscow.This is because North Atlantic (Gulf Stream) warming current would stop flowing.to mention only one.

Not to mention all the disruptions to sea life which depends on upwelling currents full of nutrients.

Each one of us is to blame by simply being alive and living the way we do.So it is up to each one of us to do something about it.

There is an old North American Indian saying I think and its something like this

Act as if you will inherit the world from your children.

Bert

[janoskiss (Steve H)]

Personal experiences of weather and climate are not to be trusted when it comes to the global picture. Neither are computer models. They are good for up to about a decade then they break down. There are plenty of research papers showing that by applying the models to past data and comparing what it predicts with what actually happened.

Here's some real data. Relatively long term anomaly? Maybe. But that does not excuse us from doing our best to minimise our impact on the Planet.

Click here to view plot of global temperature 1861-2004

[slice of heaven]

Originally Posted by janoskiss

Relatively long term anomaly? Maybe. But that does not excuse us from doing our best to minimise our impact on the Planet.

Less than 1deg in 100yrs and less than half a deg in 60yrs.
Is that a really significant rise in the longterm? Need a chart from the last 10,000 yrs to make a decent comparison.
I do agree we shouldn't be raping our planet the way we do, but personally I cant tell the difference between the 'Local' current weather and that of years gone by.

[slice of heaven]

A chart of temps from borehole data...18000yrs.
Has man halted a global cooling trend?
http://www.ncpa.org/~ncpa/ba/ba337/ba337fig1.gif

Putting the temperature change into perspective.
http://www.ncpa.org/ba/ba337/ba337.html

I haven't voted as the only NO option says global warming is balderdash.

[jjjnettie (Jeanette)]

So what is going to happen?

Are we going to have ever increasing temperatures?
Or
Are we going to set off another Ice Age?

There was an interesting doco on SBS the other week talking about just this.
And no, it wasn't The Day After Tomorrow.

[gaa_ian (Ian)]

Bigger changes on a global scale are I think more indicitave of global warming
- 22 hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico in one season due to higher ocean Temps
- Clear evidence of the melting polar Icecaps, caught in a feedback loop of warming.
- the hole in the Ozone layer over Antartica due to CFC's
These things are all clearly quantified.
On the othe hand, changes in the seasons as we remember there are possibly part of another long term cycle.

[rumples riot]

JJJ, I saw that same doco, its about the conveyor I was talking about, and if you watch the special feature DVD there is some science related basis for the movie. Mind you, its sort of like using the womans day to reference your argument at Uni.

Yes your right Ian, but it is the little things that give an indication of what is happening on a larger scale. At least that is the way I see it. Large scale events will not take place for some time, however the smaller scale events are begining to show.

Anyway thanks for contributing everyone.

[rochler]

My 2c worth;

It could well be that the biggest silent contributor to the apparent global warming effect & ozone depletion is the degradation of the geomagnetic field that surrounds the earth. The earth's core (which acts a like a dynamo & generates this field) has slowed down quite significantly over the last few hundred years, and so the earth's field is weakening. This is usually a precursor to a geomagnetic reversal, where the polarity of the earth's field spontaneously reverses itself.

When I say 'spontaneously' I don't mean instantaneously. It could occur over decades, with years of instability before the poles realign & gradually the field stabilises & strengthens again. Apparently this has ocurred many times throughout the earth's history and is evidenced by geological studies. We are currently very much overdue for one.

Of course, as the earth's field weakens, more harmful rays from the sun can penetrate the atmosphere leading to higher incidence of cancers, changes in weather patterns, warming etc. Might also explain all those unusual whale beachings...

So I think we need to keep an open mind about it - although I very much believe that pollution, defoliation etc. significantly contribute to the problem I also believe that mother nature's engine room might also be a big factor....

Of course it might be that the earths core is slowing down for some other reason, but I'd rather not think about that. If it just kept slowing down i.e. not just a reversal, then we'll end up with no ionosphere & the solar winds can happily blow away our unprotected atmosphere, instead of deflecting around it as currently happens. We'd end up like Mars, so there wouldn't be much point in going there anymore hehe....

[rumples riot]

Yeah Rochler that could also be a factor. I had forgotten about the geomagnetic reversal. I remember learning about this in Geology. The Pacific core samples suggest that reversals take place around every 10-100K years. Good thing about that is we will be on top of the world then. But while it is happening we will all suffer.