Tesla cars

[OICURMT]

Originally Posted by xelasnave

I dont think Ford or Toyota will say .." oh petrol is out lets close the doors its all over" just maybe they decide to produce an electric car as well..

https://www.ford.com/powertrains/bat...tric-vehicles/



They are already in the market in a B*I*G way...

[Peter Ward]

Originally Posted by xelasnave

............

If you are board and have time you do this sort of thing but I suspect many investors have not done any sums.

AND overvaluation is very dangerous because if you get a run panic sets in and the company disappears.

I dont know what market slice they expect or the profit per car ...anyways I am going off to do something productive.


Alex

The market cap of many US companies, not just Tesla, is indeed, insane.

As to whether this house of cards will fall...as the Donald liked to say: We'll see what happens

[xelasnave]

Originally Posted by Peter Ward

The market cap of many US companies, not just Tesla, is indeed, insane.

As to whether this house of cards will fall...as the Donald liked to say: We'll see what happens

I thought share trading was about selecting a stock that had good long term prospects as supported by Warren Buffet and long term that is the game but if I were to get into trading it is as simple as tossing a coin place your bet and sell taking a profit or having a hole to fill next bet...but realistically betting on the horse races is no different ... Each bet needs to make the winnings and losses you are behind...I sometime play roulette like that and jt is hard not to win but you need to seek a very small win to start..even going for a dollar win can see you needing a $500 bet to make the system pay.
But it is boring because I am not gambling..I do not gamble..
Alex

[The_bluester (Paul)]

I think personally that the "Value" of Tesla is in the range described as absurdly silly.

I don't agree with the assessment elsewhere in this thread either that Telsa stand to become a motoring monolith as all the "Legacy" car makers will fall over under their mountains of debt and reliance on ICE cars. It is pretty obvious that they are all spending hand over fist to get pure EV models out there too, and they have the advantage that have been learning how to make cars for up to 100 years, Tesla has proven over the last decade or so what all the legacy makers already knew well. Making cars is hard and making high quality ones is even harder. The biggest difference is where the mountain of "Other peoples money" has come from, explicit borrowing from the likes of banks or "Investors", both of which tend to want a return eventually.

I think the market desperately needed Tesla or a company just like it a decade ago to prove that the future of motoring did not look like the G-Wiz, around now is when we are going to start finding out if the market still needs Tesla, when all the legacy makers start rolling out new models and Tesla suddenly has real competition for every model they make, built by companies wo do not beta test their self driving software by releasing it to the public. That to me is an example of the same sort of "Blow up as many as we have to" development that SpaceX use, only the lives of the paying public are at stake.

Unless I win a lottery in the very near future, I expect that I have last year bought my last new pure ICE car, though I expect to jump over hybrids and the next new car will be a BEV.

[sn1987a (Barry)]

Every EV that legacy auto produces and sells at the moment is losing them money and cannibalizing their own low margin ICE vehicle sales and thus economies of scale that they need to service their mountains of debt. The more EVs they sell the more they bleed which is why they have been dragging their feet and kicking and screaming for so long. They'll be begging for a bailout soon.

Teslas gross margins are growing to insane levels with every step up in production. Two new giant factories bought and paid for with state of the art productivity about to come online. More factories being planned. Year over year as far as the eye can see Teslas production, margins, cash flow, product diversity climbing the S curve.

Add to that Autonomous driving purchase or subscriptions, Robo taxis, Electric power utility Mega packs, humanoid robots and you're looking at Trillions of dollars of opportunity with no one else even coming close. That's why Tesla is valued around 1T now. By 2030 if they execute on their vision they'll be way over 20T market cap.

Don't bet against Elon Musk.

[xelasnave]

Have any sums?

Like how many vehicles sold p.annum to see 20 trillion. Just one trillion would be nice.
I agree their future is wonderful that is not the issue...the issue is how many cars to justfy the current level of confidence...

Some numbers on the back of a used envelope is worth a thousand pies in the sky.

There was a time in Holland where tulips became the focus of investment with some bulbs selling for the price of a house..
. like if you sat down and asked how many tulips will I need to sell to get my money back you would never have reached for your wallet.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania

Alex

[wavelandscott (Scott)]

Full disclosure, my company supplies into the automotive space. Materials for interior, exterior, air bag covers, taillights, display panels, touch screens and EV batteries (and tires).

COVID aside, the USA annual car sales are 17 million units…COVID years closer to 13 but the 17 is a solid “normal” expectation.

Tesla gross profit margin per car is just over 30% and climbing (scale and improving know how) for reference GM is less than 15% (last year closer to 11%) and Toyota just under 20% (18% and change). Both GM and Toyota are seeing declining gross margins.

Cheapest model Tesla average sale price is at US$45,000…most expensive model > USD$100,000… fleet average my estimate is USD$ 75,000

You can do some valuation estimates from there depending on what you think their market share will be. China market number of cars is a little larger, I do not know off hand EU or ROW (rest of world). Tesla also sells some batteries for other applications so figure what you will on that.

Batteries for Tesla get cheaper each day and at least in the lab can be just over 90% recycled. Battery chemistry is changing so expect the price of manufacturing to decline rapidly over the next decade…

Hope that helps

[sn1987a (Barry)]

Year 2030 eight years away.

Tesla 20 000 000 cars per year production and sales at say $50 000 per vehicle = $ 1T revenue

PE ratio 20:1

$20T market cap.

Going to be 2 million cars this year up from 1million last year up from 500k year before.

Waiting list growing even when they lift prices.
Legacy auto paying Tesla for EV credits to avoid fines for not producing enough EVs. Free Money from competitors to build even more factories! You can't make this up!

If Tesla solves Autonomy then they can stop selling cars to the public and just make them all into Robo Taxis and make even more money per unit. It will be cheaper to go by Robo Taxi than to own an EV and Tesla will be paid for every km. kms per year 24/7 is more money for Tesla over lifetime of car than selling it.

Tesla insurance now rolling out is cheaper than other insurance because Tesla get all the data from their cars.

They're making and buying as many batteries as they can. Any excess can be put straight into Mega Packs, Cyber trucks, Semi trucks. The demand for Mega Packs is insatiable.

Every way they win.

[raymo]

My Grandmother was born before the first car hit the road, almost all households that could afford it were lit by gas lights, of course no aircraft;
trucks and tractors were steam driven, and 6 months before she died, men
landed on the Moon. How's that for progress in one lifetime?

Even when I was a lad, the milk was delivered by horse and cart, as was coal and bread. The rag and bone man came round on his horse and cart ringing his bell. He would buy and sell anything that had some value. I used to walk 3km each way to primary school in all weathers by myself. I was 11 before I tasted a real egg, and about 7 or 8 before my first real potato. At the age of 8 I used to go about 8km on the bus to the nearest swimming pool, spend hours there having fun, and get home at tea time. My parents would get done for child abuse today.
raymo

[wavelandscott (Scott)]

A bit off the topic of Tesla specifically but I am sharing for reflection.

A couple of years ago my Wife’s Grandmother passed at just a few months shy of 110 years old. She retained her wits until near the end.

The amount of technological change she saw in her life was remarkable…first cars, first phones (lots of firsts)…but in my view nearly all the changes she saw were recognizable changes…a car for example while updated was not so different from a horse and buggy (4 wheels, a visible power plant, and a steering mechanism) a phone had a place to speak into, a place to listen and a mechanism to connect to your speaking partner…

Up until recently, with a little prior mechanical experience, you could understand the fancy new “machine”

My contention is that the changes we will see over the next 10 years will dwarf what she observed over her life and for all intents and purposes will look like “magic”…borrowing this idea from a great thinker.

Change is constant and accelerating and we need to be ready and willing to climb on board

[sn1987a (Barry)]

Elon going for Gold!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Carg5ympHq4

[Camelopardalis (Dunk)]

Electric cars are substantially simpler, mechanically, and lend themselves more to improvements in process efficiencies.

Profits usually get decimated by competition, so the next few years should be an interesting ride in the market…

[lazjen (Chris)]

Originally Posted by Camelopardalis

Profits usually get decimated by competition, so the next few years should be an interesting ride in the market…

I think we're going to be in for a wild time for a while yet due to the demand far outstripping supply. If/when that sorts itself out, we should see more effective competition.

I wonder if during that process we'll see a lot of traditional dealers close? It will be one way that manufacturers can increase their profits if they follow the online ordering model.

[wavelandscott (Scott)]

Originally Posted by lazjen

I think we're going to be in for a wild time for a while yet due to the demand far outstripping supply. If/when that sorts itself out, we should see more effective competition.

I wonder if during that process we'll see a lot of traditional dealers close? It will be one way that manufacturers can increase their profits if they follow the online ordering model.

I believe this to be insightful and matches my experience…we have had 3 “service” opportunities for our Tesla since ownership, 1 tire rotation, 1 “computer module update”, and 1 window crack replacement on back window.

2 of the three they came to my house…no hassle or impact to me.

The profit driver of filter changes and “tune-ups” have no meaning with the Tesla. Shockingly simple to own and drive.

[Camelopardalis (Dunk)]

Yeah I won’t be missing the service “reminders”, even though I don’t usually cave in to the guilt until the car itself tells me it wants a service

Sad that I should trust the electronics more than the honesty of the dealer

[sil (Steve)]

The EV car thing is irrelvant and profits come in other ways and who would have guessed not too long ago that everyone having a thousand dollar phone in their pocket , when a 20c piece was all you needed it you had to phone someone. Teslas was never about making EV cars and profiting, Its value is in the Electricity storage technology. Lithium Ion is unstable and has a life of only a few years before it is dead, unlike Nickel based rechargables with can be revitalised by switching to Lithium and locking them into unopenable devices and not having spare batteries available. The companies, once they hook you, have a pretty much guarenteed income stream for selling new products. Same with Tesla, their investment in developing batteries means after a few years when you will be forced to replace the car batteries they will be in the black for certain and no doubt the batteries will be lighter and more powerful so you “get” performance upgrades too. But Remember Elon’s goal is to move to mars. He has solar city to develop tech to harness solar energy, with telsa hes developing energy storage tech, hes got spacex to get him there, and he’s got his boring machine tech to create tunneled living space under the surface of mars away from harsh weather and solar radiation, So Elon will need biotech to create food and he’s pretty muchready to take a colony to mars, declare it his own and use his flame throwers to defend it. You might think he’s a nutcase but he has a plan way beyond the horizon you guys can think. With any luck it includes a government-less society.

[gregbradley]

Isn't the barrier to EV the lack of charging stations and working chargers (I read they are often the targets of vandalism).

They sound great for local driving but for long trips with not a lot of infrastructure away from the cities, they don't sound too attractive at this stage to me.

Greg.

[raymo]

Greg, There is no meaningful barrier to EVs. Their range is improving all the time, in fact as I said earlier, a Tesla will go slightly further on a charge than my Mitsubishi ASX Aspire will. Chargers are being installed in large numbers.
An EV with a decent range [say 400kms] can drive right around Australia
including across the Nullabor.
raymo

[Shano592 (Shane)]

Originally Posted by Camelopardalis

the honesty of the dealer

I had to laugh at that!

[lazjen (Chris)]

Originally Posted by gregbradley

Isn't the barrier to EV the lack of charging stations and working chargers (I read they are often the targets of vandalism).

They sound great for local driving but for long trips with not a lot of infrastructure away from the cities, they don't sound too attractive at this stage to me.

It is certainly early days, but it's improving. You can see how various EVs fare by using a site like: https://abetterrouteplanner.com/ There are configuration options if you select a Tesla such as using other types of chargers than the supercharger network.