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  #21  
Old 02-04-2018, 10:42 AM
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OzEclipse (Joe Cali)
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The orbit is elliptical with a 10km range so it's hard to look at it's change over a short period unless the shift you see exceeds 10km. From China to Pacific Micronesia it lost 3km dropped from 140.1 to 137km, gained that back & more to 147km by it's current central Pacific location. Current orbital range is 137-147km. I suspect it will last at least one more orbit. Maybe more.

Each orbit it survives brings it closer to being in-view from Eastern Australia.

Joe
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  #22  
Old 02-04-2018, 10:47 AM
gary
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Hi Guys,

If you are looking at the Heaven's Above tracking hoping
for live information ... forget it

The only live information comes from NORAD radar tracking and a radar
station in Germany. No doubt Russia and possibly China also are monitoring
it by radar on passes near their own stations.

The Heaven's Above site will just be showing a computation of the orbital
elements which is to say if you are staring at it, you are just looking at
the result of some maths, not the result of telemetry or radar.

As the orbit decays, the modelling that maths does breaks down too and is not reliable.

Watch for announcements here :-
http://en.cmse.gov.cn/col/col1763/index.html
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  #23  
Old 02-04-2018, 12:12 PM
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Down ?
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  #24  
Old 02-04-2018, 12:16 PM
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Down ?
See this post :-
http://www.iceinspace.com.au/forum/s...0&postcount=10
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  #25  
Old 02-04-2018, 01:00 PM
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Well the Heavens Above "Real Time" tracking still has it at 133Km above the earth.

ABC News has also confirmed it crashed at 10-15 am Sydney time.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-0...-earth/9605260
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  #26  
Old 02-04-2018, 01:03 PM
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Edit: at 0800hrs....... 2 hours and 25 minutes to go till reentry..... Not enough time to fly to Chile to view it....
I was only out by 9 minutes.....
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  #27  
Old 02-04-2018, 01:16 PM
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So now we know "real time" tracking means it's just just a simulation of what might be happening, not really what we are accustomed to expect from modern tech. That other "real time" tracker (Statflare) was the same, just a simulation. The path it was traveling on was probably shown correctly but the data source (or lack of) for the altitude is where it failed.

Last edited by doppler; 02-04-2018 at 01:29 PM.
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  #28  
Old 02-04-2018, 01:44 PM
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OzEclipse (Joe Cali)
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Live and learn. After the close approach of asteroid 2012 DA14, we learned not to trust astro planetarium programs for these type of objects. Horizons and MPEPH are the gold standards.

An IOTA member reported observing just a 9s discrepancy between the SATFLARE simulation and the observation of Tiangong-1 on Saturday so it was pretty close.

Joe
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  #29  
Old 02-04-2018, 03:47 PM
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Canberra times are quoting a Chinese agency as saying it’s down , Heavens Above shows it still up?? No photos anywhere yet?
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  #30  
Old 02-04-2018, 04:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by torana68 View Post
Canberra times are quoting a Chinese agency as saying it’s down , Heavens Above shows it still up?? No photos anywhere yet?
Roger,

Announcement from China Manned Space Agency
http://en.cmse.gov.cn/col/col1763/index.html

Tiangong-1 reenters the atmosphere
Tiangong-1 reentered the atmosphere at about 8:15 am, 2 April, Beijing time. The reentry falling area located in the central region of South Pacific. Most of the devices were ablated during the reentry process.



8:15am in Beijing was 10:15am EST. There are probably no photos because it came down in a relatively uninhabited part of the South Pacific. Putting their description together with the last ground track it might have been east of Kiribati, south of Hawaii.

Joe
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  #31  
Old 02-04-2018, 05:43 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by torana68 View Post
Canberra times are quoting a Chinese agency as saying it’s down , Heavens Above shows it still up?? No photos anywhere yet?
The whole exercise has been a bit frustrating over the last 48 hours to be honest.
I know Heavens Above is very accurate from years of using it.
But for rapidly decaying objects it is just a pain in the a.. to use.
The 2 line elements change so swiftly that another source is needed.
So you go to the 'live tracking' servers that are using 'tracking' data for almost live updates,
then they clog up with too many users logging in at crunch time
It would be great with all of the technology we have available for just the
average punter to log in and watch an almost live telemetry feed right down to the end.
Sometimes I have been lucky. I watched a few shuttle landings right down to the tarmac.
But I suppose we aren't ever going to get military spec telemetry right to the second/metre are we.
They don't give away their capabilities to the world that freely

But, it begs the question, why with a near global coverage of satellites
that can detect/ track and rapidly update any object in the airspace up to several hundred kms,
for the very purpose of detecting launches and reentry of unfriendlys.....can't they say where MH370 went.

Steve
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  #32  
Old 02-04-2018, 05:48 PM
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Quote:
can't they say where MH370 went
They probably dont want to let on what they can and cant do.
That said, in this day and age, why isnt there live streaming of data from all commercial planes???? No need for black boxes and horrendously expensive searches.
Andrew
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  #33  
Old 02-04-2018, 06:17 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kinetic View Post
But, it begs the question, why with a near global coverage of satellites
that can detect/ track and rapidly update any object in the airspace up to several hundred kms,
for the very purpose of detecting launches and reentry of unfriendlys.....can't they say where MH370 went.

Steve
Exactly! I don't buy into the conspiracy theories, but this sort of thing is certainly fodder for them.

I mean in this day and age, shortly after we lost the ability to put a man on the moon, you would have thought they would be able to track flights if they can track space junk down to millimetre sizes.
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  #34  
Old 02-04-2018, 06:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kinetic View Post
The whole exercise has been a bit frustrating over the last 48 hours to be honest.
I know Heavens Above is very accurate from years of using it.
........

Steve
Thanks Steve , I used Heavens Above for satellites etc in the past but they still show that thing as up 🙁 I would have thought someone would have manually “crashed” it to avoid embarrassment.
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  #35  
Old 02-04-2018, 06:47 PM
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Well it wasn't completely unproductive I suppose.
I managed over two cloud free nights to get a pair of images of where
the space station wasn't.....
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  #36  
Old 03-04-2018, 08:53 AM
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g day Joe,
thats a beaut pic!
some reward for your persistance
regards, L
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  #37  
Old 03-04-2018, 12:12 PM
gary
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Reality check. The state of the art

Quote:
Originally Posted by kinetic View Post
So you go to the 'live tracking' servers that are using 'tracking' data for almost live updates,
then they clog up with too many users logging in at crunch time
It would be great with all of the technology we have available for just the
average punter to log in and watch an almost live telemetry feed right down to the end.
Hi Steve,

What "live tracking" servers?

For a piece of space junk that isn't transmitting any of its own telemetry, continual live tracking doesn't exist.

What the U.S. Air Force Space Command has to do for these types of objects is to model their orbits in software
fed by orbital elements and to update the orbital elements by observations either from C-band (5.4GHz) or
S-band (3GHz) radar or dedicated tracking telescopes.

As C-band and S-band, like an optical scope, is line-of-sight, fixes can be intermittent.

Take for example the deployment of the Space Command C-band station at Exmouth in West Australia which
has only been in operation for just over one year now.

Along with a 3.5m telescope being built at Exmouth, to the best of my knowledge, that represents the limited coverage
of the southern hemisphere.

A Space Command S-band installation is being built in the Marshall Islands and it will create a virtual radar beam wedge extending
about 3000km out into space and about 5000km wide at its widest point.

The Marshall Islands facility will be the key installation in the US's new "space fence" but one can appreciate that
in-between those times when one does not get a radar or visual fix on the object all one can do is extrapolate
using the software models.

So how did the USAF Space Command know Tiangong-1 had re-entered?

Though the details are unlikely to be published, one could speculate that the US would have detected the
infrared signature of Tiangong-1 as it burnt up in the atmosphere through its constellations of
classified missile early warning system satellites, such as their latest generation Space-Based Infrared System
(SBIRS) satellites.

Designed to pick-up the tell-tale signature of the heat plume from a missle launch, what are designated
as the SBIRS-High satellites are in a high geosynchronous orbits so that each "sees" at any one time
most of the Earth's hemisphere.

I've modelled and animated in the past the orbits of earlier generation missile survellaince satellites
and it's fascinating to watch as you place them in a orbit and impart a spin on them how they can scan the Earth.
Here is someone else's video depiction :- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mDTnl4E9FiY

A large part of what Space Command must do everyday is make split second decisions on whether the detection
of an infrared signature is that of a meteorite, re-entering space junk or when it comes from the ocean like
where Tiangong-1 impacted, a nuclear warhead SLBM-launch from a Russian submarine.

There have been documented false alarms in the past where President's have been roused from their sleep
in case the United States needs to go to DEFCON 1 and order a retalitatory strike, only to find it was an oil well flare.

That the US announced the rentry of Tiangong-1 before the Chinese says a lot about the relativities of
sophistication between the two in global early warning systems despite both being nuclear-armed powers.

But as best as we know, even the US lacks a "hard real-time" tracking capability for re-entering space junk.
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  #38  
Old 03-04-2018, 01:17 PM
geolindon (Lindon)
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aaawwww Joe
twitter, facebook etc OK, but IIS - pleeeease no.
regards, L
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  #39  
Old 03-04-2018, 02:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gary View Post
Hi Steve,

What "live tracking" servers?

For a piece of space junk that isn't transmitting any of its own telemetry, continual live tracking doesn't exist.

I understand tracking the path mathematically but the thing that threw me off was the altitude data which varied a lot but was slowly going down. I was keeping tabs on that so that when it dropped near the 100km reentry zone I could be outside if the path was overhead at that time but that stopped at 135km altitude.

They should have hired some video game programmers to write a reentry sequence to be played as soon as news of the burn up was received.
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  #40  
Old 03-04-2018, 03:11 PM
gary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by doppler View Post
I understand tracking the path mathematically but the thing that threw me off was the altitude data which varied a lot but was slowly going down. I was keeping tabs on that so that when it dropped near the 100km reentry zone I could be outside if the path was overhead at that time but that stopped at 135km altitude.
Hi Rick,

Since the orbits aren't perfectly circular and also because the Earth is
not a perfect sphere, the altitude of all satellites change continually over time.

Periodically, you are watching it go through apogee and perigee.

The satellite two-line elements contain an atmospheric drag coefficient
designated as BSTAR.

So unless they receive a command from ground controllers to fire boosters
to maintain their orbits, all low Earth satellites decay in altitude over time
and as you witnessed, the model will estimate this.

But despite lots of research, modelling the drag on a satellite is
complex and subject to a lot of uncertainties.

The largest source of uncertainty is due to the atmospheric density
being influenced by the heating of the Sun, including from UV radiation
and ionized particles caught in the Earth's magnetic field.

During periods of solar activity, the atmospheric density varies.

The surface of the Earth has varying amounts of albedo so when sunlight
reflects from it, the atmospheric density changes.

The fact that the Earth rotates gives rise to coriolis forces that affect the
winds in the upper atmosphere as does the diurnal cycle itself.

There are a multiplicity of additional phenomena, some resembling
chaotic, random behaviour that conspire to make modelling very difficult
and in the absence of continuous real-time radar tracking, the outcome less
predictable than a roulette ball.

Speaking of roulette balls, at least they are spherical.

Spacecraft come in all sorts of shapes and sizes, may have protruding
solar panels, may be tumbling and so on.

The drag on a spherical spacecraft with known mass is slightly easier
to model, but for the odd-ball shapes most modern spacecraft are these
days, aerodynamics is not their strong point.
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