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Old 04-05-2016, 08:18 AM
glend (Glen)
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BOM what's the point?

I am sick of these BOM forecasts that suck me into planning an imaging night and then turn out to be totally wrong. NSW Central Coast and Newcastle forecasts by the BOM for the past three nights has been clear nights skies and then the cloud rolls in after dark and ruins my plans yet again. You only have to look at the Satellite photos to see these large patches of cloud mysteriously appear right over my house. The promise of a wonderful night sky at 7pm replaced by drifts of the fluffy white demons by 9pm. Get it together BOM or shut down and just publish the Sat photos.

Last edited by glend; 04-05-2016 at 08:29 AM.
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  #2  
Old 04-05-2016, 08:40 AM
deanm (Dean)
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I agree re. BoM.

SkippySky can be handy, but the best I've come across is:

http://clearoutside.com/

Dean
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Old 04-05-2016, 08:45 AM
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Shiraz (Ray)
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Ha. Yes, I have the same problem. A clear day warms up the sea a bit and then at night, the nice warm moist air drifts over the land and miraculously turns into clouds - can see clear sky most places, just not overhead.

I don't think that the BOM models take local conditions like that into account - probably not possible at the resolutions they use.
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Old 04-05-2016, 09:15 AM
casstony
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shiraz View Post
I don't think that the BOM models take local conditions like that into account .
I think that's the issue. I find the forecasts pretty good generally but specific local phenomena interfere with the general forecast. When I lived in Morwell the clouds would often appear shortly after sunset as a result of local valley conditions; now in Warragul the general forecasts are more reliable and although it's a wetter climate there are more clear nights.

I like this site: http://www.cloudfreenight.com/
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Old 04-05-2016, 09:15 AM
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FlashDrive (Poppy)
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' Little Boys who tell lies, grow up to be Weather Men '

Flash .....

Last edited by FlashDrive; 04-05-2016 at 09:40 AM.
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Old 04-05-2016, 09:44 AM
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Luke.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by deanm View Post
I agree re. BoM.

SkippySky can be handy, but the best I've come across is:

http://clearoutside.com/

Dean
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  #7  
Old 04-05-2016, 10:00 AM
casstony
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Originally Posted by FlashDrive View Post

' Little Boys who tell lies, grow up to be Weather Men '

Flash .....
I think they've branched out into a few other professions too Col
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Old 04-05-2016, 03:52 PM
el_draco (Rom)
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Try http://cloudfreenight.com. Spot on cloud map every time for me and that's a friggin miracle for Tassie!
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  #9  
Old 04-05-2016, 04:34 PM
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Exfso (Peter)
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Re BOM. I can remember when I was in Flight Service. There was a day when the weather on the West Coast in the Ceduna area was a lot different than forecast, and a pilot submitted what we called an Airep. This was sent to Met, who said that the weather he was experiencing was not possible. Hellooooo the pilot is flying in absolute crap weather, does the right thing submits a report about it and his report is taken as being totally false. Seriously who is right, the guy flying in the crud or some pen pusher hundreds of km away reading a chart..
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Old 04-05-2016, 05:29 PM
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dreamstation (James)
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It's looking like it's going to be a clear night here, both looking outside as well as on Cloud Free Night. Haven't had one of those for a week or more. Yay
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Old 04-05-2016, 10:47 PM
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janoskiss (Steve H)
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Weatherzone's 48-hour detailed forecast is pretty good and reliable IME.
For your location try: http://www.weatherzone.com.au/nsw/hu...ailed-forecast

Another good one is the "cloud forecast" link on the Resources->Weather page here on IIS.
http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/auscloud3days.shtml

I use BOM mostly for rain radar and synoptic charts.

These three sites combined have enough reliable info to fairly accurately forecast night sky conditions for up to 3 nights (2+1/2 days) in advance.

@glend There will always be tough to predict conditions every now and again, and like you say, you should look at satellite and other data to make your own assessment. The BOM does good work on a shoestring budget afaik. In fact they supply most other AUS weather sites with the data. But their forecast summary has to be given in a broadly accessible form (so it's understood by most people). So they just state the most likely scenario and do not state things like confidence intervals, or range of likely conditions with their respective probabilities. But you can figure those well enough if you consult more than the terse forecast summary and other sources. (Free BOM data for the public is very limited. They have to sell most of their data/analysis to keep afloat.)

@Exfso I'm sure what you describe could not happen these days. Meteorologists are well aware of the chaotic nature of the weather and how it can cause those sorts of freak events.

Last edited by janoskiss; 04-05-2016 at 11:26 PM.
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Old 05-05-2016, 08:43 PM
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Exfso (Peter)
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One would hope not Steve, that was 20+ years ago. But one never knows.
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