How high can it go? $$

[[1ponders] (Paul)]

Not having a TV reception, nor radio reception these things tend to sneak up on me while I'm cruising the net, I've just seen that the Aus $ had cracked the $1.10 US mark. I predicted to a friend last year (and I know nothing about currency exchange) that it would hit $1.15 US and possibly as high as $1.25.

Should I start a new business in psychic exchange rates (bet I can do a better job than the market analysts )? How high will it go?

[multiweb (Marc)]

What do you reckon? Time to buy some USD?

[supernova1965 (Warren)]

Originally Posted by multiweb

What do you reckon? Time to buy some USD?

Not if the Republicans don't play ball with the Democrats the USD will be used for wallpaper

[[1ponders] (Paul)]

no but I'm definitely thinking of that new Feathertouch focuser for my VC200..... that is until I arranged for the plumber to replace 3/4 of my roof guttering today

[acropolite (Phil)]

Hmm the rising dollar's making me itch, I'm already guilty of browsing the AP and Bisque sites, the scary thing is that once spendthrift fever sets in (the signs are there, hot sweats in the middle of the night, adding up what can be sold on a spreadsheet, feelings of guilt in advance), of course, there's only one cure, spend your way out..

You're a bad influence Ponders.....

[Max Vondel (Peter)]

With the Republicans holding Obama to ransom I think that $1.25
is very much on the cards Paul. Only a drop in local interest rates would change the Dollar outcomes perhaps. So how LOW can America GO?
If the Americans default we are all in trouble.............

[[1ponders] (Paul)]

Thanks Phil. Would you like me to stand on the sidelines and cheer or try to distract Liz while you place your AP order? But ooohhhh that MX looks sexy Phil. I could always modify the lower room on the observatory and make the roof roll off and put a second pier in. You'd be welcome to set it up there, more reasons to visit the grand kids in Brissie

[[1ponders] (Paul)]

Damn don't talk like that Peter, I don't know what I'd do if it does get to 1.25 Where would I start ..... to go bankrupt

[Marke (Mark)]

Its good timing , my AP mount is due in the next few weeks and still have
balance to pay hope it keeps going up - every cent is a bonus

[[1ponders] (Paul)]

Might be worth considering upping to the next size mount Mark

[Marke (Mark)]

Nooo I didnt read that !

[[1ponders] (Paul)]

I'm a baaad boy

[gregbradley]

I personally think we are probably near a high. I doubt we'll see $1.25.
Its easy to think the dollar will continue to rise when its at highs. It went up as far as I can tell because the CPI figure was worse than expected (thanks Bananas). This means the likelihood of an interest rate drop is decreased and perhaps the expectation of a rate rise is back on the horizon (unlikely, the economy is dead at the moment).

Our interest rates are about to fall more than likely (one major reason our dollar is high). The USA printing money program finished in July as far as I know. The Republican/Democrat arguing over debt ceiling is just brinkmanship and a default just won't happen. The USA is likely to recover sooner than the pundits think. Don't forget the bulk of the smart people in the world live there.

If you're gonna buy your USA product now is the time in my opinion. Even if it goes up a tad more its not that much difference.

One thing though is the Aussie dollar is a strong trending currency so whatever the trend is it is likely to do that for a while.

Greg.

[ballaratdragons (Ken)]

An economist was on the radio today saying that it is highly possible to go as high as $1.50
but more likely to sit here around $1.10 for a short while before it drops back to about $1.00

[mithrandir (Andrew)]

I keep putting off buying $US to have some cash for our trip.

I could have bought at $1.10 a while back. Put it off.

I was starting to think would have to buy at $1.07+-1. Put it off.

Now back over $1.10. Where will it be by late September?

Andrew

[renormalised (Carl)]

Greg, it'll be bad enough that the Democrats have lost their backbone and are caving into business and financial interests, but if the Republicans get back in, the US is going to go downhill faster than a duck flying south for winter. They already have a debt of something around the $16 trillion dollar mark, which is larger than their economic output and it's growing that fast they can't keep up with it. No matter what some pundits might think will happen, they're in dire trouble. Unless they take some drastic actions very soon, expect the US to turn into a basket case. Unfortunately, in the process, they'll drag everyone else down with them.

[gregbradley]

Who knows what the future holds Carl and you may be right.

Their debt level is $14.25 trillion which is roughly 1 years worth of GDP.

During WW11 US debt level was 125% of GDP so they have survived high levels before.

I wouldn't underestimate their ability to rebound. I see Apple has recorded record profits and Microsoft is doing very well.

I am sure predictions of $1.50 would be on the basis of debt level negotiations failing and US defaults on debt. That's in neither parties interest as apart from the lack of confidence it would create it would also mean I imagine a credit rating downgrade with the consequent interest rate rise on their large debt.

By the way Japan's debt is over 200% of GDP ( from memory it is 225%) whereas USA's is 100%.

USA debt whilst extremely high is not that much higher than many European Countries and lower than some.They also pay a much lower interest rate than anyone else being the International Reserve Currency (ie international trade is generally conducted in US Dollars with some increasing exceptions). This keeps demand for their dollars artificially high no matter what they do unless they lose this status which would be very disastrous also.

Greg.

[pgc hunter]

I'm just about to drop the big bucks on a Zambuto..... this is music to the ears.

[Octane (Humayun)]

Sab,

When are you going to use it? You do realise, if you do it, Melbourne's clouds will never clear...

H

[pgc hunter]

Originally Posted by Octane

Sab,

When are you going to use it? You do realise, if you do it, Melbourne's clouds will never clear...

H

I don't have to purchase anything to achieve that....