Hi George & All,
Quote:
Originally Posted by jjjnettie
I hope we see it go in our life time!
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by renormalised
We'll be more likely to see Eta lose its stack than Betelgeuse...far more further along the path to big bang than the latter. Far more likely to in any case considering it's a far larger star (mass wise, luminosity etc etc).
|
Noooooooo please no I don't want either of these to go. Loosing Betelgeuse would be ultra spectacular and produce a magnitude -9 to -10 event ... But when the show's all over, Orion (the most photographed constellation) would no longer be Orion!.
If Eta Carinae, it would similarly destroy the Homunculus nebula -- one of the most interesting small nebulae in the sky. I don't want to loose that !
Yep, inasmuch as we understand the evolution of high-mass stars (our state of knowledge is not nearly as complete as it is with medium or solar-mass stars) there is some evidence that Eta Carina may be just around the corner. I read a couple of papers last year that propose that the "supernova impostor" events Eta Car underwent in the 1840s and 1890s mimic the observed behaviour of two other stars that recently blew up in other galaxies that were of the exotic "pair-production" or "pair-instability" type of supernovae. There is some evidence that supports a conclusion that Eta Carinae will end its life in this manner (as a pair-instability supernova).
http://arxiv.org/abs/astro-ph/0612617
However, it might also live on for a few more hundred thousand years, and become a stripped core Wolf-Rayet star and then implode in a Type Ib or Type Ic event. We don't really know which one is more likely which means it is important that this star is watched carefully.
It seems that pair instability supernovae peak at absolute magnitude -22, whereas Type II events (core implosion of a red supergiant to a neutron star) peak (on average) at about absolute magnitude 17.5. That's a 4.5 magnitude difference and a real difference in intrinsic luminosity of about 64 times (ie the pair instability supernovae Eta Carinae
may produce would likely be about 64x brighter than the event Betelgeuse is destined to go out with (tsk tsk -- never end a sentence with a preposition).
Now, Eta is 7,500 ly distant, Betelgeuse is somewhere around 650 ly. Assuming they explode at these distances, which will be the brighter in our skies?
Eta (if it goes down that route) will peak at about mag -5 while Betelgeuse will peak about mag -9.
But ... the star I've got my money on to explode next is Sher 25 in NGC 3603. There is some fairly solid evidence that this star almost certainly has <20,000 years to go. It is 20,000 ly away. There is a good chance the blue touch-paper has already been lit.
Best,
Les D