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Old 31-10-2021, 01:40 PM
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Economic feed back.

First please do not use this thread to complain about anything and above all be objective....

So how are things going that you see?

Businesses closing down or there is money everywhere...

I just dont know what to think...I expected to buy a decent caravan at about $30k but find you need to be double that figure...yet Cutler Roll top desks are a fraction of their price 45 years ago.

I thought I would be able to buy a good cheap house but like the van my expected purchase price is half the reality...and my shipwright mate tells me boat prices are right up there compared to when I gave my boat away...

The $22000 sports car I was wildly excited about three and a half years ago would now sell for $45000 unless I am mistaken.

So please help me with your impressions.

Alex
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Old 31-10-2021, 01:58 PM
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You are spot on Alex, prices for houses, caravans and cars are through the roof.
Just recently a small 4x4 which this fellow had someone bought it secondhand for double the price of a brand new one.

It expect it will settle, but when.

Leon
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  #3  
Old 31-10-2021, 02:11 PM
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mura_gadi (Steve)
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You've got several big national players manipulating currency values/prices for years, same goes for resources in the past 2 years - raw materials are up 200%+ in some cases, you have a supply/demand as well logistics issues in the past 2 years due to Covid.

With the exception of Covid there are a lot of un-natural forces at play atm which are only going to get worse. Playing around with currency and commodities is going to hurt you later...


Rare earths are a good example...
Lithium has risen from US$1460 a metric tonne in 2005 to...

"The spot price for lithium carbonate in China was at 160,000-170,000 yuan ($24,813-26,363) per tonne on Thursday... Fastmarkets."

Last edited by mura_gadi; 31-10-2021 at 02:25 PM.
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Old 31-10-2021, 02:31 PM
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My mate who just now left said of the caravan I was given that if I could not sell it for $7k I would not be trying

The little MX5 is starting to look good value which is scarey...

We went to Ballina yesterday and I am thinking to rent something for a long holiday..six months or more..and start following the market and get ready to buy something if or when things come crashing down..I would like a water front with a jetty ( I know I have one but on the river not on s dam) which when I was looking some time ago were great value..relatively speaking...cheap along side similar other stuff.

And get my MX 5 as it seems there are plenty of housekeepers running around..certainly there was yesterday and oh so friendly..but a water front, small boat, sports car and a house keeper that gets out of the place when finished would be ok...and drop over to the observatory on clear dark nights...

AND never cook again..there are so many restaurants you could not get sick of same old same old.

At my stage of the game I need to fit more in....

Thinking thinking...

Alex
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Old 31-10-2021, 02:43 PM
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It's a sad state of affairs when so much of a country's wealth is in digging up a finite resource (a few of which will be required less and less in future, like coal) or simply recycling assets (housing).

I feel sad for younger and future generations with regards to house prices. The only way to fix it is to make house prices fall, but that will never happen because housing is a protected ponzi scheme in Australia.
Helping first home buyers enter the market simply increases the price of the asset on sale by what you input (if a FHB has an extra 20k to spend, well surprisingly the market will increase by that amount quickly and make things worse).
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  #6  
Old 31-10-2021, 03:06 PM
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Buying a house has never been easy.
These days first home buyers seem to expect to start at the top well it has never worked like that.
These days finance is easy to get once that was not the case. I agree that subsidies for housing only assist vendors and should be avoided but they are adopted as they are a certain vote getter.

Housing, like our education is one of the best exports we have...

Alex
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Old 31-10-2021, 03:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xelasnave View Post
Buying a house has never been easy.
These days first home buyers seem to expect to start at the top well it has never worked like that.
These days finance is easy to get once that was not the case. I agree that subsidies for housing only assist vendors and should be avoided but they are adopted as they are a certain vote getter.

Housing, like our education is one of the best exports we have...

Alex
Buying a house has never been easier? Try chasing a deposit that grows by the same ratio as house prices each year.
Even at the high interest rates of the 90s, buyers now spend more on their home loans because of the bigger principles and loan to income ratios.

No first home buyer wants to start at the top of the market. That’s a generalisation. People just want to live close to where they work, not 2hr commutes each way.
That’s not a life

Plus the general attitude (not aimed at you, Alex, just a comment a I read what other older generations say) of “it was worse back in my day, don’t ask for something better” is something that we need to let go of quickly. Every generation needs to leave the world in a better place for those coming after. Why people would wish their own previous hardships on future generations is puzzling

If housing is an export, that’s pretty sad
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Old 31-10-2021, 03:27 PM
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Wife invests in investment property. Means I don't have to work hard One apartment covers our expenses, another pays the loans, another gets saved.

At $720 per week each....it's a no-brainer
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  #9  
Old 31-10-2021, 05:31 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AdamJL View Post
Buying a house has never been easier? Try chasing a deposit that grows by the same ratio as house prices each year.
Even at the high interest rates of the 90s, buyers now spend more on their home loans because of the bigger principles and loan to income ratios.

No first home buyer wants to start at the top of the market. That’s a generalisation. People just want to live close to where they work, not 2hr commutes each way.
That’s not a life

Plus the general attitude (not aimed at you, Alex, just a comment a I read what other older generations say) of “it was worse back in my day, don’t ask for something better” is something that we need to let go of quickly. Every generation needs to leave the world in a better place for those coming after. Why people would wish their own previous hardships on future generations is puzzling

If housing is an export, that’s pretty sad
First let me thank you for giving me something to think about and to be able to tell it as it is...

Yes easier...pre 1970 you needed 50% of the purchase price..the Bank would lend 60%of valuation..their valuation and that came out at 50%or less of the purchase price...I ran a solicitors office and lent clients money on first mortgage and the result was much the same..then Building Societies would lend a higher percentage but you still had to think 40%deposit...it often saw a buyer with a personal loan and a first and second mortgage with both working two jobs for the first three years...then you would refinance and consolidate and if you were lucky only have one mortgage and Mum could give up her second job ...now tell me how easy that was...I was very lucky as my parents lent me most of the money to buy my first home, but I still saved 25% of the purchase price..two bedrooms, fibro, needed repair and no sewerage connection..yes a pan toilet.but so was most of Hornsby..certainly much easier than today I think not...most folk had to get most of the cash from their parents ..how do I know? Because I did between four and six conveyances a week. I was at the coal face as they say and it was never easy..that is just nonsence to look back and believe the opposite.

As to inflation, and I did this, after three years and things getting better...One could go out to Baulkham Hills or Castle Hill or many places where subdivisions were going on and buy a block of land at say $2000 and before you settled come back to the agent and put it back on the market at $2750 and get your price and that buyer would do the same putting it back on the market at a higher price again...tell me if inflation is anywhere near that today...

Well back in the day when Gosford was not at the end of a freeway and it took a long drive or train trip in excess of two hours many people bought up that way as it was the only way they could buy a house...sure was easy.

Look back in history and tell me when it has been easier.
There is the dream and then there is the reality and this hand wringing over the future generations is baseless.

And it is not s case of jumping on people wanting better but just dealing with reality..you dont start life as a rich man unless you are born into wealth.. it is that simple..its not s case of wishing any ill on anyone..you have money or not if not you need to get it but to expect that you are entitled to a magic house within a walk to where you work is naive in the extreme and takes no account of supply and demand or needing to set aside heaps of cash just to get a deposit ...and if you think inflation will get better I suggest that is unrealistic...further check out home ownership in other parts of the world and tell me how easy they find it...And housing being exported, what is so sad about that????..we have little else to provide wealth for the average person..it means that after the headaches of working two jobs, borrowing part deposit from a loan shark and doing it tuff our folk can retire with something and that something comes from the fact we have people coming to this country and funding many many retirrments..if you can come up with something better please do do...and realise building Utopia is a fools dream ...never been done and never will be done.

Honestly look around the world and how people live ..how many a room on average..we are the very privileged minority and still we get folk winging that its all to hard...non realists...seven billion ..how many can buy a home?
Alex
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  #10  
Old 31-10-2021, 06:04 PM
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Stonius (Markus)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xelasnave View Post
Housing, like our education is one of the best exports we have...

Alex

Are there any other countries that allow foreign ownership of their land? It seems crazy to me. My brother used to have properties in Mexico, but they've tightened the laws there now. And here we are leasing out our most strategic port to China? Makes no sense at all.



But also, i think the things we use to indicate economic health don't necessarily translate into the real world. We've had a booming economy, yet I live near one of Melbourne's biggest shoppping strips and it feel like pretty much every second store has closed down over the past two years, even ones that have been around for 25 years or more. Even the local 7-11 closed down! Wages haven't grown in a generation, yet, the economy is booming and Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk are raking it in. So the economy is great/terrible depending on your perspective.


But yeah, I think it's important to not to conflate how well the stock market is doing with how the economy is doing. Small businesses and people who work PAYG get no benefit from an increase in the ASX.



Markus
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  #11  
Old 31-10-2021, 06:06 PM
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Outcast (Carlton)
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Alex,

You might like to read (in full please) the attached article if you think buying a house is so easy compared to the past!!

https://www.savings.com.au/home-loan...-retrospective

Cheers
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  #12  
Old 31-10-2021, 07:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Outcast View Post
Alex,

You might like to read (in full please) the attached article if you think buying a house is so easy compared to the past!!

https://www.savings.com.au/home-loan...-retrospective

Cheers
Not if it is going to change my mind

Well ok I will but only because you asked Carlton for no one else would I do it.

Thanks... I like input and to read opinions..but let me say this even before I read it, if in keeping with what I presume will be similar to so many over the years..it will be a sensationalist article pandering to and rubbing the fears of decent folk who dont stop to think about how it is in the world overall.

Alex
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  #13  
Old 31-10-2021, 07:40 PM
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xelasnave
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Outcast View Post
Alex,

You might like to read (in full please) the attached article if you think buying a house is so easy compared to the past!!

https://www.savings.com.au/home-loan...-retrospective

Cheers
Well that was refreshing..real numbers and an attempt to present facts.

I would like to be able to say..well you can buy a house up here at such and such a figure but the market has auctions or ring for a price and other nonsense that makes it impossible to say anything meaningful.

I guess my reaction is to this notion that at some point it was easy..

Alex

Last edited by xelasnave; 31-10-2021 at 07:53 PM.
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