well it hasn't arrived yet! so your spot on mr Bob
local midnight tonight could be interesting
PS note: when I say southern skies, I mean that very generally, usually I find, the earlier in the night, I have even seen action due west (once briefly even n/w!)or S/W, straight after sunset, as the night progresses it swings more magnetic south, and just before dawn, they can even take on a s/e orientation. remember magnetic south is actually in the S/S/W for us here, as you all well know.
if there is such a thing as a one stop rough guide for predicting elevated activity, then this would be it,
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/plots/kp.html
the kp values - if it hits 6, then activity is probably visible for Tassie and NZ, if it climbs to 7/8 and over, than far southern mainland Australia has a good chance of visible activity - and activity, if any, could come in fits and spurts, as per usual.
The kp values would be about at least 90% accurate as rough guide, but it is only in 3 hour blocks in graph, so it is delayed, but look for climbing values prior.
of course Tassie is always in the box seat for such events, if clouds and bushfires arent a probem!
@ Ving 
