G'Day g_day,
There is one aspect of this that you have over-looked - vibration.
You are right in what you say, reducing the total mass of the OTA/counter weight assembly will reduce the load on the bearings, hence reducing friction in the bearings and reducing load on the drive gears... but I think you might be placing more importance on this than it warrants. If your scope is well balanced, even just slightly (and deliberately) unbalanced to minimise backlash, the "war and tear" on the bearings will certainly be insignificant and the that on the gears should be well within the design loadings anyway.
I would doubt that, if you actually do the experiment, when you lengthen the counterweight rod by 50% you can actually use 50% less counterweight. It may be close, but I'd almost be preared to bet it's not exactly that amount - beause the mass of the moving parts in the mount (RA axis, etc) are not negligible.
Most precision rolling bearings require some sort of minimum load to work efficiently. This may be achieved by preloading (like in your car or trailer wheel bearings) or it may require a minimum load. I doubt this is significant to your mount! I just mention this FYI - I have encountered some classic engineering design problems that "no-one could solve", but in actual fact the bearings were over designed - they didn't have enough load on the bearing for them to work properly.
The biggest issue I think you
may notice with a longer counterweight shaft will be vibration. Lengthening the shaft (I.e. the radius of the counterweight from the RA axis) will decrease the resonant frequency of the counterweight. As well as the static deflection of the shaft increasing (as you've already acknowledged) the amplitude of any vibration will increase, because it is now a softer "sprung" mass spring system. The amount of damping in the system is essentially unchanged, so any knocks to the scope will take longer to settle as well as being more noticable.
I think if you go for a longer counterweight shaft and less mass you will find a degradation in the stability of your scope. It will be more sensible to movement, bumps, gusts of wind, etc. I wouldn't go that way, but if you want to do the experiment, I'd love the see the results! Set it up, give it a bump test and time how long it takes for the view to settle and compare it to your standard setup. Maybe it's not significant...

. I think it probably is though.
Al.