BOM - El Niño ends as tropical Pacific Ocean returns to neutral

[gary]

During the past year, Australian observers have enjoyed a run
of dry and warm observing conditions during the El Nino event.

In fact the last 12 months to April are reported to have been the
warmest on record for Australia.

However, the bureau states that it appears that El Nino is now over
and that models point to about a 50% chance that a La Nina event might
take hold this winter.

In the Bureau of Meteorology's fortnightly El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) bulletin of 24th May 2016, they report that -

Originally Posted by Bureau of Meteorology

El Niño ends as tropical Pacific Ocean returns to neutral

The tropical Pacific Ocean has returned to a neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state. Sea surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific have cooled to neutral levels over the past fortnight, supported by much cooler-than-average waters beneath the surface. In the atmosphere, indicators such as the trade winds, cloudiness near the Date Line, and the Southern Oscillation Index have also returned to neutral levels. Outlooks suggest little chance of returning to El Niño levels, in which case mid-May will mark the end of the 2015–16 El Niño.

International climate models indicate the tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to cool, with six of eight models suggesting La Niña is likely to form during the austral winter (June–August). However, individual model outlooks show a large spread between neutral and La Niña scenarios.

Changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere, combined with current climate model outlooks, suggest the likelihood of La Niña forming later in 2016 is around 50%, meaning the Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at La Niña WATCH.

Typically during La Niña, winter-spring rainfall is above average over northern, central and eastern Australia.

Climate model outlooks for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) suggest a negative IOD event is likely to develop during the austral winter. However, outlook accuracy for the IOD at this time of year is low. A negative IOD typically brings increased winter-spring rainfall to southern Australia

Bulletin here -
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/i...#tabs=Overview

In an article this morning in the Sydney Morning Herald, Environment Editor
Peter Hannam also reports on the Bureau's prediction.

Article here -
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/we...24-gp2l21.html

[wavelandscott (Scott)]

Thanks for sharing...I was just thinking about this topic and was curious when the ne t cycle would be starting...now I know.

[The_bluester (Paul)]

Astronomically, that makes me sad.

Having been until recently buying truckloads of water in for livestock and domestic use since November, not so sad.

[gary]

Originally Posted by The_bluester

Astronomically, that makes me sad.

Having been until recently buying truckloads of water in for livestock and domestic use since November, not so sad.

Hi Paul,

I hope it gently rains in the mornings to fill your tanks and dams but that
it clears at night for you.

Best Regards

Gary

[The_bluester (Paul)]

That would be nice.

I have said it to others, hopefully in about three months time I will be whinging about the mud.

We are just about to get a water bore put down for stock and domestic (Now it has started raining I have finally got the borers attention) It is probably going to feel like a silly move next year if we get a full blown La Nina, but in reality most years we have been pretty close to the end of our water supply at the end of summer. Being able to use bore water for livestock and to get the toilets off our drinking water supply should make all the difference. Now to hope the water quality is good. the borers have a "No water, no charge" arrangement for stock and domestic bores but obviously can not guarantee anything about yield or quality.

[gary]

For those on the coast of southern Queensland, the coast of NSW and
in Tasmania, if there was ever any doubt we had just said goodbye
to El Nino, those doubts have certainly been washed away over this
New Moon weekend.

It is being reported that Victoria's turn is next. Hopefully Paul will
get some welcome rain.

Go safe everyone and never be tempted to try and drive through flood waters.

[Atmos (Colin)]

I could go with a solid week of rain and then a solid month of clear skies I don't object to the rain, just the needlessly cloudy nights

[The_bluester (Paul)]

Of course it is our turn, we just spent ten grand sinking a stock and domestic bore! That is even more of a bad weather certainty than buying new astro gear.

[Nikolas (Nik)]

Any chance El Nino not come back? Melbourne's skies have been woeful during that event

[gary]

Originally Posted by Nikolas

Any chance El Nino not come back? Melbourne's skies have been woeful during that event

Hi Nik,

With the probability of La Niña forming later in the year at 50%,
the outlook is for increasing rain and cloud.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) combining with El Niño ended up making
the 2015 spring the third driest spring on record in Australia.

In NSW over the last eight months, observers enjoyed some of the clearest extended
periods in many years.