NSW fires

[iceman (Mike)]

Have been thinking about my IIS friends living in and around the blue mountains and northern central coast lately.

I know we've got quite a lot up in the blue mountains, including Winmalee.

I hope everyone is safe! Would love to hear from you guys and let us know how it's been - if you're even able to get online!

Shout out to the incredible effort of the firies and volunteers!

[rogerg (Roger)]

I have been thinking the same. Seems a pretty bad situation over there, and like it's just come from nowhere. Not even warm spring here yet let alone summer with temperatures to burn big fires (fingers crossed).

[glend (Glen)]

And of interest to those not directly affected there is the news that the smoke is laying seige to the Sydney basin and will affect astronomy for sure:

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/we...021-2vvyw.html

and of course the general health of the population.

[gary]

Originally Posted by rogerg

I have been thinking the same. Seems a pretty bad situation over there, and like it's just come from nowhere.

Hi Roger,

Not quite from nowhere and we have been bracing for it here in Sydney for the past month.

Sounds like it has been a lot cooler there in WA.

As the Bureau reported -

Originally Posted by Bureau of Meteorology

September was the warmest on record for Sydney, with a substantial number of records broken at Observatory Hill. Mean temperatures broke records at all six major temperature stations in the city, a consequence of widespread maximum temperatures more than 3 °C above normal and minimum temperatures more than 1 °C above normal, and persistent warm weather during the month.

The average maximum temperature at Observatory Hill was 24.4 °C, 4.4 °C above the historical average for September and 1.1 °C above the previous September record (23.3 °C in 1980), with temperatures more typical of November weather (average 23.6 °C).

Daytime temperatures were persistently warm during the month, with only three days dropping below 20 °C associated with a mid-month rain event, an equal record with September 2012 (average 17 cool days). This included 20 consecutive days above 20 °C between August 24 and September 12, the longest such spell on record for September and two weeks earlier than the previous record (19 days 7-25 September 2001).

There were also several very warm days during the month. Seven days reached at least 28 °C during the month, well above the historical average of 1 warm day and the most on record (previous record 6 days in 1928). Three of these days reached 30 °C, the equal-highest on record (4 other times), two of which occurred during the first ten days of the month.

The average minimum temperature was also the highest on record for Sydney Observatory Hill at 13.8 °C, 2.7 °C above the historical average. No nights dropped below 10 °C during the month for the first time on record (average 11 nights), while 10 nights exceeded 15 °C (average 2-3 nights), the equal highest on record with September 2009. The warmest night was 20.1 °C on the 10th, the earliest 20 °C night on record for Sydney.

The warmest days also featured unusually warm mornings. The 9am temperature was 25.9 °C on the 10th, the equal-warmest on record for September and the earliest such warm morning by two weeks (previous earliest was 24 September 2009). This record was later broken when temperatures reached 26.9 °C at 9am on September 26, before reaching 29.9 °C at 10 am.

The combination of dry weather, warm temperatures and strong winds resulted in significant early-season bushfire activity during the month. Major bushfires impacted western Sydney and the Blue Mountains on the 10th, resulting in some evacuations, closed roads, and two destroyed houses. Bushfires also burnt large areas of Barrenjoey Head in the Northern Beaches on the 28th.

What is extraordinary is that normally records such as these are broken by fractions of a degree.
This year they are being broken by multiple degrees.

In fact it has been a year of records. On January 18th the city recorded its hottest ever day of 45.8C.

October 10th saw the third hottest October day. And so on.

Normally the bush fire season is November through March.

Anecdotally, late last month I ventured 30 meters into the neighbouring park, which covers
an area of 154 sq km on Sydney's north, to assess conditions. I have never
witnessed it so dry so early in the season. Water courses that normally
trickled out of the sandstone all year round, year in, year out have stopped
flowing. The goannas came out of hibernation about a month early. It has
felt like summer here since October.

So heaven knows what summer itself will be like.

[Brettstar6754]

I hope this Map helps my fellow IISers in the Bluemountains.http://google.org/crisismap/australia

Its worth a look,lots of detail.
B*

[strongmanmike (Michael)]

Of course I am concerned about those in the path of these terrible fires, I am even in a high risk area myself.... but we are not allowed to mention the elephant in the room huh?...or we risk being labelled as politicising the reality The IPCC makes it pretty clear but hey what would they and the Royal Society, Australian Academy of Science and NASA etc etc know? all the evidence suggest it will only get worse! God help the Green Army

[TrevorW]

What do you mean Mike, 6 degrees, we are moving closer to that 1 degree where we should

"Move away from the coast as sea levels rise but not to the bush
as the change in weather patterns leads to longer droughts then times of flooding with fiercer storms, so be I the harbinger of bad tidings"

[strongmanmike (Michael)]

Originally Posted by TrevorW

What do you mean Mike, 6 degrees, we are moving closer to that 1 degree where we should

"Move away from the coast as sea levels rise but not to the bush
as the change in weather patterns leads to longer droughts then times of flooding with fiercer storms, so be I the harbinger of bad tidings"

Don't get you, sorry Higher temps, longer droughts extreme weather all will increase and head in sand idiots now run our country, sorry but I am passionate about action on climate change and I make no apologies, not at all!
Mike

[gregbradley]

I was at Springwood last Thurs and it was semi apocalyptic. Dark clouds of smoke that resembled a huge thunderstorm. I was coming back from Leura and to the North the Lithgow fire was billowing the same way.
During the day it was extremely windy perhaps 50-80kmh winds.

I have gone and put sprinklers on my house roof and my observatory roof, gotten a fire pump operational with 2 x 36 metre 1 inch hose with brass fittings that draw from my pool and shot 2 x 30m plumes of water.

By the way there is a great aussie product on the market called "Ember Defender". This is a sprinkler with a metal frame that fits on the ridge of your roof and will take ordinary garden hose to run it. Brilliant.

Fire is not coming my way particularly but you've got to be prepared.

The fire I saw last Thurs was bigtime wild and it was quite threatening and unpredictable.

Greg.

[gary]

Originally Posted by gregbradley

By the way there is a great aussie product on the market called "Ember Defender". This is a sprinkler with a metal frame that fits on the ridge of your roof and will take ordinary garden hose to run it. Brilliant.

Hi Greg,

Thanks for the heads-up.

Believe we spotted one of these during tonight's ABC news segment and we
commented about it so now we know it is a sprinkler specifically targeted
to this role.

http://www.masters.com.au/product/10...roof-sprinkler

[TrevorW]

Don't disagree with you Mike, but unfortunately Govt is not led by the people only those who have the money to control it.

[Larryp (Laurie)]

There is a very good article in the latest SAM magazine (Sydney Alumni Magazine) written by The Dean of Agriculture and Enviroment, Mark Adams, on bushfires-well worth reading.
Its available online.

[strongmanmike (Michael)]

Originally Posted by TrevorW

Govt is not led by the people only those who have the money to control it.

And that rules out scientists huh? Not only are there no women in the federal cabinet now, heck we don't even have a minister for science anymore

Anyway, yes fire is certainly something we need to be concerned about as yes it does contribute greenhouse gases and as Andrew Stevenson writes it contributes to the negative feedback loop...but the fact remains we humans and our thirst to burn fossil fuels at all costs and the power of those willing to shut down the science are still the elephant in the room.

Mike

[mithrandir (Andrew)]

Originally Posted by gregbradley

By the way there is a great aussie product on the market called "Ember Defender". This is a sprinkler with a metal frame that fits on the ridge of your roof and will take ordinary garden hose to run it. Brilliant.

I googled for that and several pages on the http://emberdefender.com.au/ site gave me a AVG popup. SWMBO would strangle me if I was to attempt to put those on the top of our 2 storey house.

[netwolf]

Hope everyone is ok, and to the firefighters, volunteers and other emergency services thank you.

[Ric]

Originally Posted by gregbradley

I have gone and put sprinklers on my house roof and my observatory roof, gotten a fire pump operational with 2 x 36 metre 1 inch hose with brass fittings that draw from my pool and shot 2 x 30m plumes of water.

Hi Greg

Make sure your hose is the percolating type, the water will seep through and keep it wet. nothing worse than embers burning holes through it and you end up with nothing coming out of the business end.

Cheers

[Wavytone]

Originally Posted by gary

a sprinkler specifically targeted
to this role.

http://www.masters.com.au/product/10...roof-sprinkler

I'd also be considering the likelihood of the power supply failing and having little or no water pressure when its needed, which implies you also need:

- your own emergency generator,
- water storage (tank), and
- your own pump to supply water at enough volume/pressure for the sprinklers.

[Larryp (Laurie)]

Originally Posted by Wavytone

I'd also be considering the likelihood of the power supply failing and having little or no water pressure when its needed, which implies you also need:

- your own emergency generator,
- water storage (tank), and
- your own pump to supply water at enough volume/pressure for the sprinklers.

In the '94 fires in Bangor/Menai, the power was turned off and there was no water pressure because the fire services were using so much water-garden hoses were useless, as was our electric pool pump.
After that, we bought a petrol powered firefighting pump so we could access our pool water in an emergency.

[Wavytone]

Now that a significant area of the Blue Mountains has been effectively cleared by fire - and all the wildlife in it - I'll raise a provocative issue.

The whole of Europe and Asia have been occupied by humanity for thousands of years and on the whole the vegetation is far from "natural" - humans have exercised conscious decisions over what vegetation is allowed to grow where for millennia and the landscapes you see now are the result of that process.

We cannot continue to cling to the past and expect areas like the blue mountains to remain as lush and green as it was in past years, full of eucalypts. Things change - and climate change is going to force major changes in the native flora and fauna whether we like it or not. We can sit by passively and watch as it is periodically burnt in hot years and grows back in wetter years, letting nature running its course, as the greenies would wish.

Or we can start to proactively make some decisions about what grows where, to deliberately reduce the risk of fire. It will take many decades, perhaps a century or two to complete this, but it can be done and is certainly not beyond us.

The fire hazard in this country stems to a significant extent from the inherent flammability of the vegetation, notably the eucalypts but also several other species that have a high level of volatile and flammable oils. One way to reduce the hazard would be to consider getting rid of these - particularly the eucalypts - and planting something else instead that does NOT pose the same risk and will grow in the same environment. There are many substitutes - oriental, european and american - although frowned on currently for not being "native".

Each time a large fire does us a huge favour by clearing the eucalypts we should be out there afterwards with a mass campaign of seeding the area with less flammable substitutes. I'm not suggesting clearing it for agriculture or tree plantations (erk) but instead aerial seeding of a mix of suitable species to create a different sort of forest that isn't so flammable, everything from ground covers to trees. Botanists know enough about the cycles of growth and regeneration now to do this, IMHO.

Oh, and before you ask "what about the wildlife", it is doomed sooner or later, either:

- adapt to the new vegetation,
- starve or move elsewhere,
- be wiped out by the next fire.

Conclusion:

A weed is the wrong plant in the wrong place. IMHO many eucalypts are weeds, very big ones. The time has come to do something about them.

[AndrewJ]

Maybe we should just cut everything down and cover it all in concrete ( painted green of course ). Lots of development opportunities,
and no need for worry in the future.
If you want to see Flora or Fauna, just look it up on your IDevice.

Australia managed to survive for thousands of years
until people moved in and upset the balance.
ie even if you replanted with "different" species, unless its managed, fuel will build up and it will burn.

Nth Europe doesnt have lots of big fires because it doesnt have long dry summers. Watch what happened in Greece/Spain etc recently and you will see that it still burns given the right conditions.

Andrew