AR1429 - X5-class solar flare

mithrandir (Andrew) · #1 07-03-2012, 03:43 PM

Quoting SDO issued 2012-03-07 04:31:01 UTC:

Earth-orbiting satellites have just detected an X5-class solar flare from big sunspot AR1429. Radiation storms and radio blackouts are possible.

Obtained from the "3D Sun" iPhone app.

aijii (Australia) · #2 08-03-2012, 09:30 AM

from spaceweather.com:

<snip>
GEOMAGNETIC STORM UPDATE: A CME propelled toward Earth by this morning's X5-class solar flare is expected to reach our planet on March 8th at 0625 UT (+/- 7 hr). Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, who prepared the CME's forecast track, say the impact could spark a strong-to-severe geomagnetic storm. Sky watchers at all latitudes should be alert for auroras. Aurora alerts: text, phone.
</snip>

Here in Melbourne, it is a Full moon tonight, with the moon due to be out ALL night.

Any hope of seeing any aurora from out of town ?

mithrandir (Andrew) · #3 08-03-2012, 10:12 AM

I don't know about Melbourne. but the Sun could have gone out and Sydney wouldn't know about it.

Latest from 3D Sun:

GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A Kp=6 geomagnetic storm is in progress following the impact of a CME on March 7th (0400UT). Auroras spotted over northern-tier US States.

with an aurora photo from over Lake Superior.

Suzy · #4 08-03-2012, 10:34 AM

Camilla Sdo posted this very informative Q&A of this event on facebook today. Just thought it was worthy of a share here...

Quote:

Camilla Sdo

Transcript of today's Twitter Q&A session with NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Space Weather expert Dr. Doug Biesecker. I took the liberty to collect the questions and answers and added additional information if I thought it would be helpful.

In case you haven't heard - we had two powerful X-class solar flares right at midnight UT time. They have already been causing some effects on Earth. Now go and read-up about Space Weather and what to expect the next few days.

The X-class solar flares caused immediate high frequency radio disruptions over the Pacific. If flying last night there, pilot might have switch comms mode.

Q: A solar storm of G3 is that strong enough to disrupt power, phone, Sat TV, or radio signals?
A: A geomagnetic storm won't impact phone or TV. Power grid ops can see it, but nothing in your home affected. Other impacts are precision GPS used for farming, oil drilling & surveying. Operations may be delayed or altered.

Q: Will the Aurora activity extend down to MN and WI? How long will it last?
A: Aurora activity expected Wed. AM to Thurs. AM. As far south as NY, Iowa, Wyoming could see the aurora.

Q: Any increased risk for skin cancer over the next few days due to the Solar Radiation Storm ?
A: Not really, Earth's atmosphere protects us from the X-Rays and UV radiation that comes from the solar flare.

Q: People are becoming more aware about SpaceWeather, what r plans to better educate people? Current website isn't much help.
A: NOAA experts have long served industries most affected by SpaceWeather. We're working on better gen public info.

Q: It appears to me that the Mar 7 CME could reach G3-G4, will it?
A: NOAA Forecast: G3 conditions are likely with possible isolated G4 conditions at high latitudes.

Q: I heard on NOAA conf call that Thursday P.M./Friday A.M. will be prime-time for Aurora B. True? Or is tonight better?
A: Location, location, location. Thursday night is better in northern continental U.S.

Q: is this a sign of things to come? Are there going to be more severe flares?
A: Solar activity is on the increase w/ solar maximum expected in May 2013. Activity will remain elevated next few yrs. In the next week, the region producing this flare remains poised to produce more flares and big blasts of material.

Q: A watch for geomagnetic A-index of 50 or greater was just issued by SWPC, can you explain that?
A: The A-50 watch is NOAA's official forecast that G3 storm conditions are likely tomorrow.

Additional info:
G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storms means:

Power systems: voltage corrections may be required, false alarms triggered on some protection devices.

Spacecraft operations: surface charging may occur on satellite components, drag may increase on low-Earth-orbit satellites, and corrections may be needed for orientation problems.

Other systems: intermittent satellite navigation and low-frequency radio navigation problems may occur, HF radio may be intermittent, and aurora has been seen as low as Illinois and Oregon (typically 50° geomagnetic lat.)

Q: How much lead time do we have to know from ACE re: component of magnetic field vector
A: Lead time on highly accurate warnings from ACE is between 15 and 60 mins.

Additional info:
Geomagnetic storms are a natural hazard, like hurricanes and tsunamis, which the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) forecasts for the public's benefit. Severe geomagnetic storms cause communications problems, abruptly increase drag on spacecraft, and can cause electric utility blackouts over a wide area. The location of ACE at the L1 libration point between the earth and the sun will enable ACE to give about a one hour advance warning of impending geomagnetic activity.

Q: How often does the Earth see events like today's?
For todays solar flare, over an 11 yr cycle, we see ~175. More closer to solar max than at other periods in cycle

Q: When will the Aurora activity be visible in the Great Lakes Region?
A: Aurora possible in wee hours of Thurs morn, but most likely Thurs night after midnight in northern continental US

Q: Any chance we might see Aurora from Aurora CO?
A: On the slight chance of seeing aurora in Colo., clouds might block the view.

Q: Does it mean even if it'll be G4/G5, but if Bz isn't southward pointed, would have no effect at all?
A: No expectation of G5 levels, even if the magnetic field is oriented for max impact. Even if mag. field points southward, geomagnetic storming still expected -- but at lower levels.

Q: Please explain the process of making a Space Weather model, spacecrafts involved, time it takes etc.
A: NOAA GOES satellites gave us first evidence of solar flare. Then NOAA forecast model requires data from other satellites including @NASA/ESA's SOHO & STEREO. Then NOAA model runs take place on NOAA's super computers and takes about 2 hours to run.

Q: Are there any sunspots coming from the backside that may spark up more activity ahead that you've seen? Thanks.
A: Certainly nothing we're expecting in the next week. We're focused on the Earth-ward side activity.

Thanks everyone for joining the #SpaceWxChat. Thanks for the great Q's and for the great answers Doug!
— with Sharon Chekro

fringe_dweller · #5 08-03-2012, 10:52 AM

looks pretty solid chance! best in looong time

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/...im.tim-den.gif

if strong enough moon wont matter, even city wont, good low S/W to S/E horizon will matter most

aijii (Australia) · #6 08-03-2012, 05:31 PM

exciting. except for the overcast cloud cover.

How long do aurorae from this category/strength of flare/CME typically last ?

aijii (Australia) · #7 08-03-2012, 05:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fringe_dweller

looks pretty solid chance! best in looong time

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/...im.tim-den.gif

if strong enough moon wont matter, even city wont, good low S/W to S/E horizon will matter most

what is that link actually depicting ?

mithrandir (Andrew) · #8 08-03-2012, 06:19 PM

Try this one - straight from the horses mouth.

mswhin63 (Malcolm) · #9 08-03-2012, 07:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mithrandir

Try this one - straight from the horses mouth.

It looked funny to me like a bit of seating flatulence. The stuff that burps out the side of the pants

fringe_dweller · #10 08-03-2012, 08:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aijii

what is that link actually depicting ?

the predicted behaviour and path of of the CME

fringe_dweller · #11 08-03-2012, 08:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aijii

How long do aurorae from this category/strength of flare/CME typically last ?

really big ones can produce activity anywhere between 24 and 48 hours or so, this one is predicted to last between 24 and 36 hours in duration

seems it will kick in maybe around midnight adelaide time perhaps?

BPO · #12 08-03-2012, 09:41 PM

Nothing visible here at 44° 25' 2" S other than a very bright moon in a perfectly clear sky.

Maybe it's still too early?

My lightning detectors are showing a lot of activity though, as is another in the South Island, even though there don't appear to be any thunderstorms anywhere about.

Maybe we should dust off our old AM radios...

aijii (Australia) · #13 08-03-2012, 09:59 PM

I can see nothing but a perfectly cloudy sky here in Melbourne

ballaratdragons (Ken) · #14 08-03-2012, 10:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aijii

I can see nothing but a perfectly cloudy sky here in Melbourne

Same here

but I will keep checking the sky

aijii (Australia) · #15 08-03-2012, 10:16 PM

i will keep checking the forum.

and the sky

dilemma - i am hell tired, and thinking of going for a drive but i am tentative because of the stupid clouds.

ballaratdragons (Ken) · #16 08-03-2012, 10:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aijii

i will keep checking the forum.

and the sky

dilemma - i am hell tired, and thinking of going for a drive but i am tentative because of the stupid clouds.

I don't know where you would drive to get away from the cloud. The whole state is about to get socked in: http://www.weatherzone.com.au/satellite/vic

aijii (Australia) · #17 08-03-2012, 10:44 PM

yeah. my point exactly

although it looks like the clouds are moving eastwards ?

ballaratdragons (Ken) · #18 08-03-2012, 10:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aijii

yeah. my point exactly

although it looks like the clouds are moving eastwards ?

Yes, it was blowing in from the Southeast, but swung around and is now blowing towards east-Northeast.
Look at what is coming in from the South West!

But, I will still keep checking. I only need a sucker hole at the right time after midnight

fringe_dweller · #19 08-03-2012, 10:52 PM

i'm not sure i would recommend a big drive for it .. i have the car ready, but i'm not sure what i'll do .. definitely recommend for people like Ken who live in the country to have a look now and then .. the indicators on spaceweather are interesting, the density of solar wind is growing, thats a good sign .. wind speed is still low, you would want solar wind speeds to be up around 600 km/sec or higher, Interplanetary Mag. Field indictors have jumped! but Bz is still north, and thats not good, so polarity of is wrong, we need it to switch south .. at those levels if it was south we would be in business

dont stress, this is just the beginning of solar max, should have 2 or 3 years, with maybe at least a couple of times a year of decent displays for southern mainland viewing ..
i do remember some big X class flares that were fizzes at our latitudes last solar max, due to mixture polarity of earths magnetosphere and polarity of plasma stream/CME negating chance of aurora .. i think WA might have the show better? or worse it could be during our daytime, not the first time that happened

aijii (Australia) · #20 08-03-2012, 10:53 PM

are you planning on staying up ?

I'm thinking of retiring, and setting a tirade of alarms to wake me up in a few hours....