Comet Tempel 1: What Will Happen?

[Greg Bryant]

In the article "Deep Impact: Our first look inside a comet" (Australian Sky & Telescope, June 2005, page 24), three scenarios are presented for the nature of Comet Tempel 1, and how it will react to the impact.

http://www.austskyandtel.com.au/back_issue.htm

1) If the nucleus material is relatively weak, and the cratering process is governed mainly by the nucleus' gravity, the majority of the ejected material from the impact will fall back onto the surface, forming a large crater.

2) If the nucleus material is rigid, there will be a smaller ejecta blanket on the surface, and a smaller crater.

3) If the nucleus material is very porous that it gets compressed and absorbs most of the impact's energy (think of a sponge), a much smaller crater is expected, and there would be little material ejected.

We're flying in the dark here (that's why Monday's experiment is so interesting). What do you think will happen?

[ballaratdragons (Ken)]

I put some thought into this myself Greg, and I think that 'Stuff' probably won't explode out into space. I think it may make the tail section glow (reflect) a little bit brighter and maybe grow longer due to the extra tons of comet matter being loosened and expelled!

At the speed it is travelling, and the force of the Solar wind, it could be impressive or we may see nothing at all.

I voted for Nucleus being rigid. Don't know why, just what I imagine it to be.

[Mick (Michael)]

A bit like fishing really, gee I love fishing

[acropolite (Phil)]

They might miss....

[slice of heaven]

Originally Posted by Mick

A bit like fishing really, gee I love fishing

Me too

I'm hoping it'll be a real spectacle.
Hopefully the comets solid enough for the probe to make a real difference.
These are the kind of events that develop wide spread interest in the heavens and kindle the fires in new astronomers.

Cosmos1 was a failure so hopefully this event turns it on.

[RAJAH235]

I voted for a slight brightening in mag., (maybe 2 or 3), due to it being a fairly mass....ive comet, with a hard core. L.

[h0ughy (David)]

if it is spewing dust and debris out like that it is pretty unstable I say it will be spongy. I think I am fully qualified for an unqualified statement!

[fringe_dweller]

I dont know? will have to reread your article first Greg - sounds like a trick question to me . can i get any odds on it? wonder if they are betting on it somewhere? hehe
BUT I do know i like dusty comets the best! I would vote for the dustiest option possible.
it is an old comet thats been around the sun a lot of times, and survived well it seems, soooo maybe it must be pretty solid? hhmmmmm
dunno - off to reread the article for clues maybe?
Kearn

[Dave]

Hi All

Seems to be a lot of confusion and some curly questions still over the upcoming 'Deep Impact' mission, and near Earth objects in general - and rightly so, this is an unusual event to say the least! That's why we got the best brains onto it to untangle the mysteries and provide some speculative answers for you.

If you check out the current edition of SKY & SPACE Magazine you'll find not one, but 3 separate articles dealing with all this. On Page 36 Dr, Duncan Steel provides an in-depth analysis of the whole program and what could develop from it. (great pics too!) Duncan works in Canberra for the Aust. section of Ball Arerospace who manufactured the Deep Impact spacecraft for NASA. In a following article he looks at NEO's.

On page 84 you'll find a large 5 page article giving you all the facts on comets based on ASA material written for us by none other than Dr. Nick Lomb, S&S contributing editor and curator of the Sydney Observatory and Martin George from the Launceston Planetarium & president of the International Planetarium Society. Again, the pics are "out of this world".

Don't forget to watch all this live on the internet OK?

All the best.

[atalas]

Thanks for all the info Greg ! your a man of your word.

Louie

[fringe_dweller]

wow us little amateurs are very popular all of a sudden!
Another factor that you could throw in is, if there is any solar activity and a decent CME would be in the vicinity of the 9P at the right time or even later in the week/following weeks? - could perhaps enhance things a bit? a lot of new sunspots at the mo
Kearn

[Rodstar (Rod)]

Thanks Greg and Dave for the info in both astro mags. I'm hoping for a large crater, but have my doubts!

[ballaratdragons (Ken)]

This is starting to sound a bit like a slinging match between the 2 magazines! AS&T and S&S.

'In our current issue we have this and that' - 'In our current issue WE have all this AND that'

I love all the info both of you give us in here, but please don't cheapen it all by turning this into a soapbox for your respective mags

It's great to inform us of what is coming up in general terms, but they are starting to sound a bit like advertisements.

Unless you want to tell all your news and articles in here. Then we won't have to buy the mags. We'll just read them here.


Also, I would hate to see the two of you turn on each other in here, rather than enjoy a shared interest without competition (at least in the forum). Outside this site it's open war!!

[acropolite (Phil)]

Doesn't matter what happens, if the rusults aren't as pretty as expected we can always get Ken to touch them up..... and if the Kodak fails on the probe well we've aways got artists impressions....

[h0ughy (David)]

Originally Posted by ballaratdragons

This is starting to sound a bit like a slinging match between the 2 magazines! AS&T and S&S.

'In our current issue we have this and that' - 'In our current issue WE have all this AND that'

I love all the info both of you give us in here, but please don't cheapen it all by turning this into a soapbox for your respective mags

It's great to inform us of what is coming up in general terms, but they are starting to sound a bit like advertisements.

Unless you want to tell all your news and articles in here. Then we won't have to buy the mags. We'll just read them here.


Also, I would hate to see the two of you turn on each other in here, rather than enjoy a shared interest without competition (at least in the forum). Outside this site it's open war!!

I agree Ken, I think we had enough of that sort of thing in another thread

On a brighter note I think they might just interview you for a feature article, KODAK USER EXPOSED

[slice of heaven]

Wanna guess the size of the crater?
http://www.planetary.org/deepimpact/contest_enter.html

[Dave47tuc (David)]

What I find interesting is that we can do this sort of science.
We watch with great anticipation thanks Greg.

[ving (David)]

I have NFI what will happen but I voted anyhow... just cause I can. I am guessing that at least from my point of view it will show a generaly brightening of the comet. At the moment it is nothing more that an almost averted vision blob... I am guessing that its core is hard with a softer crust and what we will see is the effects of a larger area of crust being blown off and a relatively small portion of core.

what amazes me is, just like the cassini mission, the engineering and such that goes into this sort of thing. I mean the cassini mission... it was launch 7 years (i think it was) before we got to see anything of use! so the batteries mechanics and electronics had to last 7 year of relative inactivity in space before it was used. and then this 7 year old technology had to work near flawlessly on call....

[Orion]

Originally Posted by Dave

Don't forget to watch all this live on the internet OK?

All the best.

I know I'm not the sharpest tool in the shed, but where can I see it live?

[ving (David)]

nasa tv Ed