Some much welcome rain last night after a record dry stretch.
Looking ahead, the BOM, as at 24 Oct 2017, has its El Niņo–Southern Oscillation (ESNO) Outlook rating at "La Niņa Watch".
But that won't necessarily mean more rain but may result in more heatwaves.
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Originally Posted by BOM
This means the El Nino-Southern Oscillation remains neutral, but the chance of a La Niņa forming in late 2017 has increased. Chances are now around 50%; twice the normal likelihood.
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Originally Posted by BOM
The El Niņo Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral. However, models suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to cool, making the chance of a La Niņa forming in late 2017 at least 50%; around double the normal likelihood. While this means the Bureau's ENSO Outlook has shifted to La Niņa WATCH, rainfall outlooks remain neutral due to competing climate drivers.
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Originally Posted by BOM
La Niņa events typically bring above average rainfall to eastern Australia during late spring and summer. However, given the competing influence of other climate drivers (weakly warm waters to the north of Australia, and cooler waters in the eastern Indian Ocean), current climate outlooks do not favour widespread rainfall across Australia for November to January. Weak La Niņa events in summer can also produce heatwaves in southeast Australia.
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ESNO Wrap-up :-
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml
