I fear I am risking being eaten alive but here goes:-
Quote:
Originally Posted by Waxing_Gibbous
The burning-off of scrub really does have an effect on the severity of bush fires ( I'm in the CFA )
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I know this is widely believed but I wonder if it is actually true. There is enormous fear around the kind of event seen at Kinglake and other places and understandably so because people die and there is massive destruction of property. However these awful events occur under the most extreme weather conditions. Under these conditions fire burns very rapidly through the crowns of trees fanned by high winds. I wonder whether the presence of extra fuel load on the forest floor makes a significant difference.
The main objective of the planned burning I suppose is to prevent or reduce loss of life. But I also wonder if anyone has ever counted the excess deaths that occur in people with respiratory and other illness due to the planned burning. Here in East Gippsland we sometimes suffer through literally weeks of heavy smoke. I am healthy and I know how badly this affects me. What about those in poor health? Has anyone ever studied this and compared the number of deaths caused by wild fire to the number caused by planned burns?
Then there is the not infrequent problem of the burns going wrong, sometimes resulting in the very destruction they are supposed to help avoid.
Within the last few weeks planned burns were lit in our district on the day before we had 50 KM/H winds. Apparently we were lucky this time that the fire was blown back onto already burned areas.
Finally, these planned fires are supposed to be low intensity, creeping through the undergrowth and fuel on the forest floor. However I often see forest where planned burns have happened that is only a bit less damaged than after a full on bush fire. This leads to a lot of tree death and therefore creates a great deal of dry fuel that was once wet living trees.
To me this all adds up to a serious doubt in my mind that planned burns actually do anything positive other than enable the politicians to say they are doing something.
I could go on but I have stuck my neck out far enough.
By the way, I am also in the CFA although no longer active because I have lost faith in the beliefs they have.
Ian
ps Please be gentle. I don't KNOW anything, just seriously wondering. I would really like to see a major study of these questions by someone such as the CSIRO.
