Weather forecasts

[multiweb (Marc)]

I thought I'd ask the weather buffs here. I often use Oz forecast for temperature, wind and cloud coverage. There are two types of forecast on each page. ADFD which I googled and GFS which I understand to be a short range forecast? They differ quite a lot regarding temperatures. For example for tomorrow afternoon in Sydney west one says the temp will still be 35c at 23:00 (GFS), the other says 25c (ADFD). So why are they so different and which one would be most accurate? I always use GFS for cloud coverage which is spot-on 90% of the time but the temperatures look a bit off.

[multiweb (Marc)]

Not many takers on this? I guess the ADFD forecast seems more accurate. Temp dropped down rather quickly last night in accordance with its forecast. GFS 35c at 23:00 was way off the mark.
In excess of 40c here this arvo. Not looking forward to it.

[mithrandir (Andrew)]

Originally Posted by multiweb

Not many takers on this? I guess the ADFD forecast seems more accurate. Temp dropped down rather quickly last night in accordance with its forecast. GFS 35c at 23:00 was way off the mark.
In excess of 40c here this arvo. Not looking forward to it.

42C today here Marc. We've 20 or so people for lunch tomorrow and predictions are for low 30s with possible storms. Clouded out now and Heather said she thought she saw lightning. There's a bit of thunder rolling around too.

[h0ughy (David)]

i go between accuweather and BOM and take a good guess. the heat is a problem, keep up the fluids

[multiweb (Marc)]

Today's nice and a bit of water which is welcome. I drove back Sunday morning from Merimbula to Sydney via Cooma. The temp in Bega was 18c at the bottom of the hill. Just 1 km past the ridge after the long climb to Cooma it jumped to 37c. Looks like the hot air was just hanging there. When we went past Canberra around lunchtime in Queanbeyan it was gusty and windy and 39c on the monaro hwy.

[goober (Doug)]

Originally Posted by multiweb

I thought I'd ask the weather buffs here. I often use Oz forecast for temperature, wind and cloud coverage. There are two types of forecast on each page. ADFD which I googled and GFS which I understand to be a short range forecast? They differ quite a lot regarding temperatures. For example for tomorrow afternoon in Sydney west one says the temp will still be 35c at 23:00 (GFS), the other says 25c (ADFD). So why are they so different and which one would be most accurate? I always use GFS for cloud coverage which is spot-on 90% of the time but the temperatures look a bit off.

I work for the Bureau and the ADFD is the Australian Distributed Forecast Database - a relatively new product that enables users to get a forecast detailed to a specific location.

I have never heard of GFS, or seen the Oz Forecast site, so not sure where they are scraping that from.