How many of us suffer from this.

[sjastro]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning...3Kruger_effect

A lot of it goes around in anti-science and pseudo-science forums like the Electric Universe.
I'll leave it up to you to decide if the problem exists here.

Regards

Steven

[Astro_Bot]

After spending 20+ years writing perfomance appraisals in the workplace, it's something with which I'm quite familiar (although I've not seen that specfic term before).

In my experience, the average person believes themself to be 'above average' and expects an appraisal to suit. They're frequently disappointed when they get an 'average' appraisal!

Of course, we don't use words like 'average'. The language refers to suitability, accomplishments, skills attained, productivity, teamwork, etc.

Going (more) off-topic ...

The best system I've ever seen gave each person a numerical rank - 1st, 2nd, etc. - no doubts anywhere, but no pass/fail either - everyone knew where they stood and what they had to do to get where they wanted to go. Of course, as soon as the behavioural psychologists got a hold of it, it was canned and replaced with the wishy washy affirmative c--p that bears no resemblance to a person's career trajetory.

[lacad01 (Adam)]

Interesting - I was discussing this very behaviour with a work colleague of mine while sharing some amber fluid, without realizing there was a name for the "condition". We were having a general moan about certain individuals in our organization who seemed to have a tendancy to exhibit an over abundance of confidence even amounting to arrogance in a subject they knew next to little about and covered over their ignorance with copious amounts of verbal drivel, baffling with b/s, that sort of thing

[Astro_Bot]

Buzzword bingo! That's where an ignorant person tries to waffle their way through a meeting or interview by using as many buzzwords as possible, usually without knowing what any of them mean.

The bingo part comes from the knowledgeable people who have to endure that stuff - each person comes up with a list of three buzzwords that they expect to hear. The first person to hear all three of their buzzwords uttered by the interviewee calls "Bingo!".

Edit: Ah, found the link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buzzword_bingo

[traveller (Bo)]

So if I know of the Dunning Kruger effect and still read and reply to this thread, does that make me a sufferer?
Maybe smarta$$ is a better description

[andyc (Andy)]

Nto sure it's too much of an astronomy problem (electric universe excepted!), but I see a lot of it in (whisper it) climate-related conversations in a number of places on the Web. Having a climate-related academic background, I understand the atmospheric physics, the palaeoclimate and recent climate data quite well (as well as my limitations - DK alert!!). But there are lots of examples out there of people who seem to think that their "common sense", backed up by some pseudoscience from the Intertubes, is enough to trump every national science academy and virtually all the experts in the field. Most of these people have no idea about the science they are trying to dismiss. There is uncertainty ... it's in a range from bad, very bad, to cataclysmically bad impacts, and each year the new research tends towards greater, rather than lesser impacts. So many people really, really don't want to accept the simple, and rather disturbing, reality, and there are plenty of D-K's out there to help them avoid accepting it. I certainly wouldn't tell a dentist how to drill teeth, a doctor how to operate on my heart, an engineer how to build a bridge, or a petroleum geologist how to find oil. I do wish the D-K-afflicted climate skeptics did the same. But lets not turn this into a deleted thread!



Haven't seen much D-K around here to do with astronomy though - everyone is very friendly and humble about their levels of knowledge and their expectations of what they can teach others. That's a great thing, and makes for a great place for beginners in whatever part of astronomy to learn. There's certainly lots for me to learn!

[traveller (Bo)]

Spot on Andy,
views and opinions do not equal to facts, or as my old stats lecturers would say, without data, you are just another person with an opinion.
Sadly though, we have far too many people with opinions and not many with facts.
Bo

[Waxing_Gibbous (Peter)]

Nearly everyone I've worked with for the last 30 years!!!
(I suspect many people could say the same about me)

The "effect" in the article is obvious in just about workspace where people of differing intelligence and abilities are employed.
I worked for a large oil company for nearly 20 years and traveled long and far on business.
I encountered this D-K thing everywhere I went in the world (though its particularly evident in England and the U.S. ) and I'm a little surprised that no one tried to quantify it or gave it a name before 1999!

[sjastro]

The D-K effect is especially prevalent when opposition to an idea is based on ideological grounds. Ideology is a common substitute for knowledge.
If you don't understand the reasons why 90%-95% of climate scientists believe in anthropogenic global warming, then you can kid yourself into thinking the primary motivation of scientists is based on a number of reasons such as dishonesty to preserve the flow of research grants, to the subjugation of the human race forcing them to live in third world conditions.

One IIS member who doesn't post here any more NereidT, is a tireless debater against pseudoscience ideas behind Astronomy, Astrophysics and Cosmology on the Internet. I've followed her debates where her opponents very much suffer from the D-K effect.
A symptom of the effect is when a sufferer is cornered and forced to deal with facts rather than opinions, the discussion can easily turn into a personal attack. I've observed Nereid being subjected to abuse on numerous occasions.

She recommended me to a particularly nasty anti-science site under the guise of Plasma cosmology.
I decided to a respond to a post where the author of the site produced a paper by Einstein illustrating his opposition to the existence of Black Holes. The author gave his own interpretation of the paper which was total misinformation. I simply pointed some of the more obvious mathematical errors. Rather than the debating the points, I was accused of being a drug taker, a "creationist retard" (a common term to insult scientists and supporters of mainstream science) and a host of other goodies.

What made it funny was that the author also moderates the site.

Regards

Steven

[Paddy (Patrick)]

Spot on Andy. That's the most disturbing arena in which I see the effect.

[astronut (John)]

This effect is most prevalent in our Federal political system and the Green Lobby...

[RB (Andrew)]

Remember the TOS rules please everyone.

3. Posting Topics
Please avoid topics about global warming, race, politics or religion.

[jenchris (Jennifer)]

I'm aware, and have been for some years, of the DK effect, but not the name. We just called it BS syndrome.
Knowledge is inversely proportional to arrogance

[technofetishism (Nick)]

I actually find the bigger problem I see on forums and the like, is the spread of cargo cult like behaviour.

Mantras about how things are done without actually understanding the science/reasoning behind it, even when said belief structure is no longer valid.

[Bassnut (Fred)]

Originally Posted by jenchris

Knowledge is inversely proportional to arrogance

Mmmmmmmmmm, perhaps not always methinks .

[Rob_K]

Would be interesting to see if there's any sort of cultural bias represented in the study, carried out as it was in the US. Success is everything, in war, space, economics, politics... Incompetence is failure, assertiveness is rewarded. Does this create fertile ground for over-estimating one's abilities?

Cheers -

[brian nordstrom (As avatar)]

I have known many over the years that act this way , ( I am probably a sufferer , like most people are at times , but some worse than others ) and I always put it down to low self esteme ? or as what I see , " Dont let the truth get in the way of a good story " . or the " Fish " was this big !!!
Its just human nature and now it has a scientific name ,, woaw , the D-K effect ...
Brian.

[Baddad (Marty)]

Interesting topic this one.

I was an electronics technician in the Army for 20 yrs. I usually worked in close proximity to other trades. Most members had a genuine respect for other trades other than their own. You could say it was the opposite of the DK syndrome.

However when low skilled members were involved the DK symptoms were quite lucid. Several times I found equipment having been tampered with.
Attempts at repairing by unskilled hands. Sometimes increasing the damage.

In those old days there were levels of repair. User, field and base workshop repair. Even at the user level they made mistakes.
An example: I was called to replace a headlight on an armoured personell carrier (apc). I thought this to be strange. Its usually a user repair. On site I saw that the light was cracked but it looked almost new. I asked the driver had he replaced this recently. " Yes done it about 50 times."
"Its cracked each time?" I was hiding my emotions.
"Er yeah!"
Now these lights come with a rubber cushioning grommet that fits between the glass and metal frame. I asked what he does with the grommet. "Just chuck it"
I felt I was banging my head at the wall. I was not an auto electrician but common sense told me that the grommet was there for a reason.
The unit was short staffed so I was doing auto elec duties.

A few days passed and I followed up on my 5 minute repair. All was well. No more blown headlights.


Cheers

[Colin_Fraser]

Originally Posted by lacad01

We were having a general moan about certain individuals in our organization who seemed to have a tendancy to exhibit an over abundance of confidence even amounting to arrogance in a subject they knew next to little about and covered over their ignorance with copious amounts of verbal drivel, baffling with b/s, that sort of thing

You must of worked at the same place I did before I retired.
Perfect description of senior management at a large company in Ballarat.

[Barrykgerdes]

My favourite story on inept electronics techs is from a transmitter fault on one of our type 12's about 30 years ago.

I was called in to fix a "minor" problem when the transmitter would not tune the aerial in automatic.

When I got to the ship the transmitter was in lots and lots of bits strewn over the floor of the transmitter room. had a good look and listened to what the symptoms were.

Four hours later I had the transmitter back assembled fixing a couple of minor faults on the way.

When the transmitter was finished I turned it on and proceeded to test it. Yes the fault was still there exactly as described.

I walked over to the main 3ph 440 v supply panel and checked the fuses. Yes C phase was O/C. I replaced it and everything was back to normal operation.

Barry

PS I guessed this was the fault as soon as I heard the symptoms although they could trick the unwary. The transmitter had a 1KW SSB linear amp running from six phase AC rectified without out filters. The amplifier being linear does not respond to the ripple. However the the loss of a phase made it into a two phase half wave rectifier which of course ruined the linearity. The power indicator being a peak voltage device still registered full power but the average power was only a fraction of the normal and not enough to drive the aerial coupler.

B.G