meh - I am probably just thinking of using a markov/monte carlo process to calculate the probability of an outcome. Your issue sounds more philosophical...
Like the ol' problem of a spider hunting a fly through a set number of rooms with the spider having a 70% probability of changing rooms when the fly is in another room and the fly having a 60% of changing rooms.
It translates quite well to decision-making.
Ah first-year probability, what a shock. Thought I could sleep through it & it turned out to be the hardest course
