[Phil Hart]

Wednesday 7th November

Synoptic Situation: A high over the Tasman Sea is expected to intensify as it moves towards New Zealand over the next couple of days, maintaining a firm ridge along the east Queensland coast. A trough will move into far western Queensland this evening and remain slow moving near the western border of Queensland during Tuesday.
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands Forecast: Isolated morning showers about the coast and ranges. Morning drizzle on the southern Tablelands. Otherwise, fine and partly cloudy. Moderate SE winds, fresh and gusty about the coast at times.

Cloud Forecasts
BoM Access Model: A little low cloud offshore and over the ranges (very hard to describe extent based on available forecast images). A small patch of high cloud decaying over coastal eclipse path late in the night.
Skippy Sky: Large area of low cloud offshore extending inland to Mt Carbine.
EU: 40-50% low cloud for Cairns/Port Douglas (with light showers indicated for Port Douglas). 50-90% low cloud and showers at Mt Carbine. Inland locations show 30% low cloud at Mt Gibson (Lakeland) but clear skies at Mt Mulligan.

Satellite Analysis/Observed Weather
Visible Satellite (6:33AM, attached): Heavy cloud cover along the coast and ranges. Scattered clouds offshore. A few clouds inland but mainly clear skies. Infrared loop suggests that even 60km inland was cloudy at times a few hours before eclipse.
Cairns Airport (7:30AM): Scattered clouds at 2500ft, broken cloud cover at 6000ft.
Webcams: Broken cloud cover in the east early at Mareeba, clearing later but sun behind cloud at eclipse time. Broken cloud cover at Cairns and Mt Carbine, with very little view of the sun.

Similar prediction and a similar result.. models ok on the broad patterns but you can't read much into the details. The BoM text forecast is actually as good an indication for the coast as anything else.. if it describes morning showers/drizzle you can expect heavier cloud or lower odds of success than other days.

Chance of Success (if eclipse had been this day)
Coast: ~<10%
60km Inland:~70-80%