What will replace the space shuttle

[TrevorW]

Is the Aries project a step forward or a step backward :question:

what will service the ISS in the meantime :question:

[supernova1965]

I would like to see a long range ship that is built in space. Not an option for transporting the heavy load to orbit but an Apollo type rocket can do that until we get a Space Elevator I can't wait until they develop the materials for one of those.:D

[Ric]

I don't know what will replace the shuttle but they had better hurry up or they will be totally left behind.

I think they Russians will be looking after the space station for the time being.

[gary]

Over budget, behind schedule and facing technical challenges, the
Ares series of boosters was cancelled in April 2010 on the recommendation
of the Review of United States Human Space Flight Plans Committee,
also known by the name of its chairperson as the Augustine Commission,
which put forward their findings in October 2009.

In April 2010, a new Shuttle-derived heavy launch vehicle known
as Space Launch System or SLS, was announced to replace what was
planned to be done by Ares I and Ares V.

The SLS is being designed to accomodate a range of flexible missions
beyond low Earth orbit as well, including possible manned trips to
asteroids, the Martian moons Phobos and Deimos and possibly Mars itself.

In the meatime, the US will rely on buying rides on Russian Soyuz
vehicles to the ISS and possibly contracted rides aboard commercial
launch vehicles such as the SpaceX Falcon 9. One hope was that
by contracting private industry, costs may come down. One analogy the
Augustine Commission gave was when the US Postal service contracted
out airmail delivery in the early days of aviation, it helped spur the
modern aviation industry that we know today.

Whereas the original plan for the Ares boosters was meant to see them
deployed only about a year after the Shuttle was decommissioned,
reviews of the project were showing that the time overruns were going
to leave something like a seven year gap where the US would be without
its own manned space launch vehicle. The hope by planners is that the
SLS will close that gap.

With the August 2nd dateline looming for the US to take action on its
debt crises, funding for all space ventures will undoubtedly come under
even more scrutiny.

[koputai]

There's also the X-37 Space Plane. This is in flight testing right now, I've seen it pass over a number of times. It's not a man carrying platform though.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_X-37

Cheers,
Jason.

[renormalised]

So, they're going to go from one over budgeted, behind in schedule and technically difficult scheme to another....which is going to face the same problems. Bureaucracies really have to make you laugh, as do politicians. Get lawyers, accountants/economists and such to run something and it inevitably stuffs up. Give the engineers and scientists the money to do the work themselves without being micromanaged by the other twerps and you get things done on or nearly on time, and done to the proper specs and cost (not below spec because the accountants are trying to do things "efficiently", and end up costing more in the long run).

[ballaratdragons]

Trevor, the Russians will be transporting any NASA Astronauts that need to go spaceward.
They are charging $65 million per U.S. passenger. (Source: FoxNews (http://fox.daytonsnewssource.com/shared/newsroom/top_stories/videos/wkef_vid_1769.shtml))

[leon]

Don't know why the stopped it, it was doing pretty well, even with a few causalities on the way.

Maybe the buget is pretty tight, especially now they are in enormous debt.

Leon

[ballaratdragons]

I know it won't happen but, wouldn't it be good if all the Government owned agencies almalgamated into one Space Agency!

NASA (USA)
ESA (Europe)
CSA (Canada)
Roscosmos (Russian Federal Space Agency)
CCCP (Soviet space program)
JAXA (Japan)
CNSA (China Space)
Shiharikota (Indian Space Agency)
AEM (Mexico)
AEB (Brazil)
DLR (German Aerospace)
ISA (Iranian Space Agency)
ISA (Israel Space Agency)
CNES (French National Center of Space Research)
LAPAN (National Institute of Aeronautics and Space Indonesia)
NSAU (National Space Agency of Ukraine)


and they worked collectively to get 'HUMANS' into space.

TSA = Terra Space Agency

We can only dream. :sadeyes:

[renormalised]

Why not just amalgamate them all and call it "Starfleet":):P

Notice a noticeable absentee there.....us. Fourth country in the world to launch its own satellite and had a fledgling space program way back in the 60's. Only to scupper it. No thanks to the much vaunted Bob Menzies who's most prescient statement on this was that there was no future in Australia ever having the capacity to go into space because he could foresee no real future in going into space. How blind and ignorant can you get. Like everything else here....politicians stuffing everything up.

Warden of the Cinque Ports....should've emigrated to England and played with his toy tugboats in Portsmouth Harbour:mad2:.

[ballaratdragons]

Yes Carl, sad indeed.

My dad worked at Woomera for a short time while he was in the RAAF.

Here is the 'Woomera on the Web' site: http://homepage.powerup.com.au/~woomera/
and here: http://homepage.powerup.com.au/~woomera/site.htm

and you may find this interesting. The article about Woomera being used as the launch/landing site for servicing the IIS. As late as 2009. Never happened though!
http://homepage.powerup.com.au/~woomera/news.htm

[hikerbob]

Trevor as far as I understand it Aries is gone http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ares_V , I might be missing a variant but I've not seen anything to suggest that it's happening anytime soon.

Short term the ISS will be serviced via the Russian program with the hope that US private contractors will be able to provide commercial launch options in a few years time (not sure of the detail there).

One of the articles I saw suggested that some of the resources which had been targetted at Aries and the Constellation program were to be used for research into better long haul propulsion (the stuff we'd need to take a human crew any serious distances).

Not sure what's spin and what's real in that but hopefully the change will help NASA put more of it's efforts into space away from near earth orbit. I'm not holding out much hope of seeing the video of a US crew standing on the moon or mars anythime soon but maybe the up side to that will be better long term prospects.

Bob

[TrevorW]

Amazing the Americans paying the Russians to get them into space wouldn't a few people turn in their graves by that thought

[Omaroo]

Except, maybe, for the two at the top of their respective games - Von Braun and Korolev. They respected each other immensely, each without ever meeting the other. Politics forced them both along, and I can only imagine what the world would be like if they had been let follow their dreams.

[TrevorW]

Chris rightly so, much of the impetus for the space race was the Cold War, but like now Von Braun was plagued by budget cuts in the early development stages etc.

I also wonder what might have been acheived and where we would be now if these super powers had been working together pooling their resources not for strategic gain but for the future of mankind.

[Paul Haese]

The way the US budget and deficit is going the space program will be cancelled indefinitely. Pretty soon the US will need to bring all its troops home and keep out of international affairs. The current debt talks are producing nothing and one sure way to reduce their debt would be to bring home the 160,000 + troops (read navy, airforce and army) from all over the world. However they will cut the space program first and foremost before they cut the business of war. US committment at present is costing something like 1 billion a day to service all their military. At least I think that is what I heard recently on 24.

I actually thought Ares was a dud anyway. There is no way you could lock 4-6 people up in that capsule for 6 months to Mars and then wait another 18 months on the surface and then spend another 6 months again in that tin can. For interplanetary travel I would expect something about a 1km long with a shielded habitat area of say 50-100m which would have an area for artifical gravity, crew retreat areas and science blocks. This would remain in orbit around the destination planet while a lander went to the surface and returned. That is going to cost billions and billions of dollars and would need to be built by nearly every country on earth. The political will is not currently there and so we will not see a manned mission to Mars in our lifetimes now.

Will the US ever return to space? Maybe not in the next 10 or so years. Currently they are in a lot of strife which they essentially caused from lack of governance. They will not recover from their current situation until they cut spending and part of that has to include Military and space programs. So I would think nothing will replace the space shuttle system, which was very old and finding parts was getting harder and harder. Looks like the Chinese or perhaps India will be back to the moon first and then onwards and outwards. Forget the US Trevor, they are finished with space.

[Omaroo]

I think that you underestimate the average American's will to be on top Paul. Finished with space? By their very nature, the US won't allow (especially) China and India to be top dogs in space for too long. I'll note this down as a statement I'll re-visit in a few years. ;)

[Paul Haese]

You're on Chris. I will be happy to be wrong, but look at how things look right now. Obama cannot even get the house to agree on what measures to take. The peak of captilism is looking rather shaky.

[Omaroo]

Agreed Paul, it won't be any time soon, but I refuse to think they're out of the race altogether. Troubles come and go, and even if theirs are fixed in glacial time frames, they will be back. They have too much to lose as a nation. They may relinquish their superpower ranking for a few years, but once they eventually stop spending a small country's GDP per day on the current conflict and bring them all back home it's got to help their bottom line. War is business - except for when you're in it yourself. Their mortgage scandal and loss of several banks hasn't helped them out lately either. All will repair itself given time - lots of time maybe, but time.

[renormalised]

Well if China and India get back to the Moon and then onto Mars before the US gets off its backside, you know what they'll setup there??. China will most likely put a military base on the moon, in violation of the Outer Space Treaty.

India....they'll most likely setup a call centre and a cricket pitch:):P

[renormalised]

If the Republican Party get back in, don't bet on it. The Democrats have turned out a rather disappointing lot, but you only have to look at the Republicans to see that the fools in there now are as bad, if not worse, than Bush and Co were. Expect to see some really hard times for the US for the next 10-50 years if the present way of things keeps going. War is business, even if it is your own involved. There's billions being made by certain companies, but you can bet your bottom dollar the economy there won't see too much of it. Bush and his mates making more money for themselves.

It wouldn't surprise me if the US abandoned the ISS. Nope, they're too busy sticking their nose into other people's business and starting wars to make money for the elite (...business as usual...) than to worry about things like the space program, education, health, social welfare etc etc.

[TrevorW]

Now now Carl no picking on the Indian's we could do with a long distance call centre

Unfortunately of fortuantely the real expertise for the development of future manned missions lies in America and Russia. I just don't think India at least would cut the mustard

[renormalised]

Long distance call centre....that would be an understatement in this case:):P



You'd be surprised just how much expertise lies outside of those two countries, and if the US goes down the gurgler, don't think those people working at NASA and such will just stay there and cop it sweet. The brain drain from there would be more like a flood. They'll go where the money is.

[TrevorW]

Carl although India has developed into an economic power I just think it will be some time before they have the resources etc to put a man on the moon.

I believe their second lunar probe launch has now been delayed until 2012.

Lunar probes IMO are dated technology the data to do this successfully was available 40 years ago so why re-invent the wheel

[Terry B]

Moon cricket. Now that's a good idea!

[renormalised]

I agree, but it's not out their reach to send someone there. It might take 10-20 years, but they will go there...and setup the call centre:):P

[renormalised]

Just imagine how far you could hit a "6" there:)

Make a small crater into a stadium, underneath an airtight dome:)

[Omaroo]

hehe.. :lol:

[renormalised]

Geez, that pitch is a bit rough!!!. Have to call out the groundsmen to roll it flat:):P

No worries about rain stoppages, though:):P

[leon]

You know what guys at the end of the day, is it all worth it, :sadeyes: just to be on top, US is not a super power, it just thinks it is.:sadeyes:

It is purely greed, that got them where they are today, and the fact is they the States are war mongers.:mad2:

Let the other idiots out there fight their own battles and look after your own first. :thumbsup:

And this race to space thing is just so un realistic it is ridiculous, :sadeyes: put the dollars toward looking after the sick and needy, :thumbsup: :thumbsup:and forget about the supposed aliens, there are none.;)

Leon :thumbsup:

[TrevorW]

"One small step for a man one large leap for mankind"

Leon it's not about aliens it about the future of mankind a lot of technology we use today is derived from advances in space flight and putting man into space

When resources start running out on earth bet you big business will be hammering to hop on board the space race

[qld]

:lol: the answer to thw question in "a carbon tax"

[leon]

Crap, you and i wont see it in our lives and/or kids life time, we have what we have today, and every day we stuff it up, nature will look after us.

Leon

[TrevorW]

Leon maybe not in our lifetime but .......

Asteroid mining refers to the possibility of exploiting raw materials from asteroids (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid) and planetoids (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minor_planet) in space, especially near-Earth objects (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Near-Earth_objects). Minerals and volatiles could be mined (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mining) from an asteroid or spent comet (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comet) to provide space construction material (e.g., iron, nickel, titanium), to extract water and oxygen to sustain the lives of prospector-astronauts on site, as well as hydrogen and oxygen for use as rocket fuel.

Some day, the platinum (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Platinum), cobalt (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobalt) and other valuable elements from asteroids may even be returned to Earth (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth) for profit. At 1997 prices, a relatively small metallic asteroid with a diameter of 1.6 km (1 mile) contains more than $20 trillion US dollars worth of industrial and precious metals.

In 2004, the world production of iron ore (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_ore) exceeded a billion metric tons.[/URL] In comparison, a comparatively small [URL="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M-type_asteroid"]M-type asteroid (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_mining#cite_note-3) with a mean diameter of 1 km could contain more than two billion metric tons of iron (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron)-nickel (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nickel) ore, or two to three times the annual production for 2004.

The asteroid 16 Psyche (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/16_Psyche) is believed to contain 1.7×1019 kg of nickel-iron, which could supply the 2004 world production requirement for several million years. A small portion of the extracted material would also contain precious metals.

In 2006, the Keck Observatory (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keck_Observatory) announced that the binary Trojan asteroid (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trojan_asteroid) 617 Patroclus (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/617_Patroclus),[6] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_mining#cite_note-5) and possibly large numbers of other Jupiter Trojan asteroids (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trojan_asteroid), are likely extinct comets (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extinct_comets) and consist largely of water ice.

Similarly, Jupiter-family comets (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comets), and possible near-Earth asteroids (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Near-Earth_asteroid) which are defunct comets, might also economically provide water. The process of in-situ resource utilization (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In-situ_resource_utilization) (bootstrapping (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bootstrapping))—using materials native to space for propellant, tankage, radiation shielding, and other high-mass components of space infrastructure—could lead to radical reductions in its cost.

This would help solve one of two necessary conditions to enable "human expansion into the solar system" (the ultimate goal for human space flight proposed by the 2009 US Review of Human Space Flight Plans Committee (http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Review_of_Human_Spa ce_Flight_Plans_Committee&action=edit&redlink=1) (also known as the Augustine Commission): physical sustainability. The second condition needed to meet the Augustine Commission's proposed goal would be "economic sustainability".