What will replace the space shuttle

[TrevorW]

Is the Aries project a step forward or a step backward

what will service the ISS in the meantime

[supernova1965 (Warren)]

I would like to see a long range ship that is built in space. Not an option for transporting the heavy load to orbit but an Apollo type rocket can do that until we get a Space Elevator I can't wait until they develop the materials for one of those.

[Ric]

I don't know what will replace the shuttle but they had better hurry up or they will be totally left behind.

I think they Russians will be looking after the space station for the time being.

[gary]

Over budget, behind schedule and facing technical challenges, the
Ares series of boosters was cancelled in April 2010 on the recommendation
of the Review of United States Human Space Flight Plans Committee,
also known by the name of its chairperson as the Augustine Commission,
which put forward their findings in October 2009.

In April 2010, a new Shuttle-derived heavy launch vehicle known
as Space Launch System or SLS, was announced to replace what was
planned to be done by Ares I and Ares V.

The SLS is being designed to accomodate a range of flexible missions
beyond low Earth orbit as well, including possible manned trips to
asteroids, the Martian moons Phobos and Deimos and possibly Mars itself.

In the meatime, the US will rely on buying rides on Russian Soyuz
vehicles to the ISS and possibly contracted rides aboard commercial
launch vehicles such as the SpaceX Falcon 9. One hope was that
by contracting private industry, costs may come down. One analogy the
Augustine Commission gave was when the US Postal service contracted
out airmail delivery in the early days of aviation, it helped spur the
modern aviation industry that we know today.

Whereas the original plan for the Ares boosters was meant to see them
deployed only about a year after the Shuttle was decommissioned,
reviews of the project were showing that the time overruns were going
to leave something like a seven year gap where the US would be without
its own manned space launch vehicle. The hope by planners is that the
SLS will close that gap.

With the August 2nd dateline looming for the US to take action on its
debt crises, funding for all space ventures will undoubtedly come under
even more scrutiny.

[koputai (Jason)]

There's also the X-37 Space Plane. This is in flight testing right now, I've seen it pass over a number of times. It's not a man carrying platform though.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_X-37

Cheers,
Jason.

[renormalised (Carl)]

Originally Posted by gary

Over budget, behind schedule and facing technical challenges, the
Ares series of boosters was cancelled in April 2010 on the recommendation
of the Review of United States Human Space Flight Plans Committee,
also known by the name of its chairperson as the Augustine Commission,
which put forward their findings in October 2009.

In April 2010, a new Shuttle-derived heavy launch vehicle known
as Space Launch System or SLS, was announced to replace what was
planned to be done by Ares I and Ares V.

The SLS is being designed to accomodate a range of flexible missions
beyond low Earth orbit as well, including possible manned trips to
asteroids, the Martian moons Phobos and Deimos and possibly Mars itself.

In the meatime, the US will rely on buying rides on Russian Soyuz
vehicles to the ISS and possibly contracted rides aboard commercial
launch vehicles such as the SpaceX Falcon 9. One hope was that
by contracting private industry, costs may come down. One analogy the
Augustine Commission gave was when the US Postal service contracted
out airmail delivery in the early days of aviation, it helped spur the
modern aviation industry that we know today.

Whereas the original plan for the Ares boosters was meant to see them
deployed only about a year after the Shuttle was decommissioned,
reviews of the project were showing that the time overruns were going
to leave something like a seven year gap where the US would be without
its own manned space launch vehicle. The hope by planners is that the
SLS will close that gap.

With the August 2nd dateline looming for the US to take action on its
debt crises, funding for all space ventures will undoubtedly come under
even more scrutiny.

So, they're going to go from one over budgeted, behind in schedule and technically difficult scheme to another....which is going to face the same problems. Bureaucracies really have to make you laugh, as do politicians. Get lawyers, accountants/economists and such to run something and it inevitably stuffs up. Give the engineers and scientists the money to do the work themselves without being micromanaged by the other twerps and you get things done on or nearly on time, and done to the proper specs and cost (not below spec because the accountants are trying to do things "efficiently", and end up costing more in the long run).

[ballaratdragons (Ken)]

Trevor, the Russians will be transporting any NASA Astronauts that need to go spaceward.
They are charging $65 million per U.S. passenger. (Source: FoxNews)

[leon]

Don't know why the stopped it, it was doing pretty well, even with a few causalities on the way.

Maybe the buget is pretty tight, especially now they are in enormous debt.

Leon

[ballaratdragons (Ken)]

I know it won't happen but, wouldn't it be good if all the Government owned agencies almalgamated into one Space Agency!

NASA (USA)
ESA (Europe)
CSA (Canada)
Roscosmos (Russian Federal Space Agency)
CCCP (Soviet space program)
JAXA (Japan)
CNSA (China Space)
Shiharikota (Indian Space Agency)
AEM (Mexico)
AEB (Brazil)
DLR (German Aerospace)
ISA (Iranian Space Agency)
ISA (Israel Space Agency)
CNES (French National Center of Space Research)
LAPAN (National Institute of Aeronautics and Space Indonesia)
NSAU (National Space Agency of Ukraine)


and they worked collectively to get 'HUMANS' into space.

TSA = Terra Space Agency

We can only dream.

[renormalised (Carl)]

Originally Posted by ballaratdragons

I know it won't happen but, wouldn't it be good if all the Government owned agencies almalgamated into one Space Agency!

NASA (USA)
ESA (Europe)
CSA (Canada)
Roscosmos (Russian Federal Space Agency)
CCCP (Soviet space program)
JAXA (Japan)
CNSA (China Space)
Shiharikota (Indian Space Agency)
AEM (Mexico)
AEB (Brazil)
DLR (German Aerospace)
ISA (Iranian Space Agency)
ISA (Israel Space Agency)
CNES (French National Center of Space Research)
LAPAN (National Institute of Aeronautics and Space Indonesia)
NSAU (National Space Agency of Ukraine)


and they worked collectively to get 'HUMANS' into space.

TSA = Terra Space Agency

We can only dream.

Why not just amalgamate them all and call it "Starfleet"

Notice a noticeable absentee there.....us. Fourth country in the world to launch its own satellite and had a fledgling space program way back in the 60's. Only to scupper it. No thanks to the much vaunted Bob Menzies who's most prescient statement on this was that there was no future in Australia ever having the capacity to go into space because he could foresee no real future in going into space. How blind and ignorant can you get. Like everything else here....politicians stuffing everything up.

Warden of the Cinque Ports....should've emigrated to England and played with his toy tugboats in Portsmouth Harbour.

[ballaratdragons (Ken)]

Yes Carl, sad indeed.

My dad worked at Woomera for a short time while he was in the RAAF.

Here is the 'Woomera on the Web' site: http://homepage.powerup.com.au/~woomera/
and here: http://homepage.powerup.com.au/~woomera/site.htm

and you may find this interesting. The article about Woomera being used as the launch/landing site for servicing the IIS. As late as 2009. Never happened though!
http://homepage.powerup.com.au/~woomera/news.htm

[hikerbob (Bob)]

Trevor as far as I understand it Aries is gone http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ares_V , I might be missing a variant but I've not seen anything to suggest that it's happening anytime soon.

Short term the ISS will be serviced via the Russian program with the hope that US private contractors will be able to provide commercial launch options in a few years time (not sure of the detail there).

One of the articles I saw suggested that some of the resources which had been targetted at Aries and the Constellation program were to be used for research into better long haul propulsion (the stuff we'd need to take a human crew any serious distances).

Not sure what's spin and what's real in that but hopefully the change will help NASA put more of it's efforts into space away from near earth orbit. I'm not holding out much hope of seeing the video of a US crew standing on the moon or mars anythime soon but maybe the up side to that will be better long term prospects.

Bob

[TrevorW]

Amazing the Americans paying the Russians to get them into space wouldn't a few people turn in their graves by that thought

[Omaroo (Chris Malikoff)]

Originally Posted by TrevorW

Amazing the Americans paying the Russians to get them into space wouldn't a few people turn in their graves by that thought

Except, maybe, for the two at the top of their respective games - Von Braun and Korolev. They respected each other immensely, each without ever meeting the other. Politics forced them both along, and I can only imagine what the world would be like if they had been let follow their dreams.

[TrevorW]

Chris rightly so, much of the impetus for the space race was the Cold War, but like now Von Braun was plagued by budget cuts in the early development stages etc.

I also wonder what might have been acheived and where we would be now if these super powers had been working together pooling their resources not for strategic gain but for the future of mankind.

[Paul Haese]

The way the US budget and deficit is going the space program will be cancelled indefinitely. Pretty soon the US will need to bring all its troops home and keep out of international affairs. The current debt talks are producing nothing and one sure way to reduce their debt would be to bring home the 160,000 + troops (read navy, airforce and army) from all over the world. However they will cut the space program first and foremost before they cut the business of war. US committment at present is costing something like 1 billion a day to service all their military. At least I think that is what I heard recently on 24.

I actually thought Ares was a dud anyway. There is no way you could lock 4-6 people up in that capsule for 6 months to Mars and then wait another 18 months on the surface and then spend another 6 months again in that tin can. For interplanetary travel I would expect something about a 1km long with a shielded habitat area of say 50-100m which would have an area for artifical gravity, crew retreat areas and science blocks. This would remain in orbit around the destination planet while a lander went to the surface and returned. That is going to cost billions and billions of dollars and would need to be built by nearly every country on earth. The political will is not currently there and so we will not see a manned mission to Mars in our lifetimes now.

Will the US ever return to space? Maybe not in the next 10 or so years. Currently they are in a lot of strife which they essentially caused from lack of governance. They will not recover from their current situation until they cut spending and part of that has to include Military and space programs. So I would think nothing will replace the space shuttle system, which was very old and finding parts was getting harder and harder. Looks like the Chinese or perhaps India will be back to the moon first and then onwards and outwards. Forget the US Trevor, they are finished with space.

[Omaroo (Chris Malikoff)]

Originally Posted by Paul Haese

Looks like the Chinese or perhaps India will be back to the moon first and then onwards and outwards. Forget the US Trevor, they are finished with space.

I think that you underestimate the average American's will to be on top Paul. Finished with space? By their very nature, the US won't allow (especially) China and India to be top dogs in space for too long. I'll note this down as a statement I'll re-visit in a few years.

[Paul Haese]

Originally Posted by Omaroo

I think that you underestimate the average American's will to be on top Paul. Finished with space? By their very nature, the US won't allow (especially) China and India to be top dogs in space for too long. I'll note this down as a statement I'll re-visit in a few years.

You're on Chris. I will be happy to be wrong, but look at how things look right now. Obama cannot even get the house to agree on what measures to take. The peak of captilism is looking rather shaky.

[Omaroo (Chris Malikoff)]

Agreed Paul, it won't be any time soon, but I refuse to think they're out of the race altogether. Troubles come and go, and even if theirs are fixed in glacial time frames, they will be back. They have too much to lose as a nation. They may relinquish their superpower ranking for a few years, but once they eventually stop spending a small country's GDP per day on the current conflict and bring them all back home it's got to help their bottom line. War is business - except for when you're in it yourself. Their mortgage scandal and loss of several banks hasn't helped them out lately either. All will repair itself given time - lots of time maybe, but time.

[renormalised (Carl)]

Well if China and India get back to the Moon and then onto Mars before the US gets off its backside, you know what they'll setup there??. China will most likely put a military base on the moon, in violation of the Outer Space Treaty.

India....they'll most likely setup a call centre and a cricket pitch