Tabloid media.

[Peter Ward]

The London school of medicine has been plotting the new and recovering cases of Corona for a time now....but are now using an "epi curve".

Sadly this common sense method of plotting the severity of on epidemic has been lost on the tabloid media. COVID19 peaked globally on about February 9th and the number of people affected is now waning. See:

https://www.futurehealth.live/blog/2020/2/17/all-the-coronavirus-maps-are-wrong

https://vac-lshtm.shinyapps.io/ncov_tracker/

The media are still beating this thing up for all they are worth...but the reality is, while total case numbers may trickle up slowly, new incidence is well on the decline.

Hence my prediction is in about a month from now, many will be scratching their heads and wonder what the fuss was all about :rolleyes:

Still worried about carking it? Get a flu shot, get some exercise, pay attention on the roads.....neglecting these will far more likely kill you.

[N1]

You'd hope so.

Would it mean that the current measures to slow it (a.k.a. "fuss") were unnecessary? I don't think so but look forward to being wrong.

[Peter Ward]

No, that is not what I am saying. Current measures have been effective...maybe even a little too draconian (eg cancelling the Melbourne formula 1) ...but the WHO data clearly shows this thing has peaked and is well and truly on the decline.

[lazjen]

There's at least one massive potential flaw in that article, Peter. Numbers in the maps are based on reported figures based on tests being done. There's already information out there that in some places not enough testing is being done or has not been started early enough to catch cases (e.g. USA). Some deaths are being more closely investigated and are now found to be COVID-19 related. The article doesn't take this into account at all.

The next problem is the date. Feb 17 for the article shows the number at about 69K. Today the same map is at 128K. Doesn't look like it's slowed down much to me. Could it be that because it's escaped China's strict lockdown and gone to other areas that were more lax that it's picked up again?

I'm very surprised that you would post such a thing, it's so flawed that's it's dangerous in such a situation we're in, where we have so many stupid people doing stupid things.

[xelasnave]

Sell sell sell..what was that Peter?...buy buy buy.
Thanks Peter.
Alex

[PeterM]

Oh, the F1 was cancelled...ouch for some.

[AstralTraveller]

Look at the CSSE page, bottom right window, click on 'Daily Cases' and then maximise (so you can read the axes). Firstly, the bar graph shown there is different to the CoronaGeddon bar graph, the latter misses the peak on Feb 12-13. Second, the CSSE shows a steady increase in daily new cases starting from about 19/2 and continuing until now.


Personally, I'm glad (gladder than normal) I'm starting annual leave today. Campus is a worrying place to be at the moment. Around here they are preparing for remote teaching and work from home. Both things already exist but they have put on extra training sessions for staff that want to upload lectures etc. And this morning new VPN software was rolled out so people can very easily access files on network drives from home.

[N1]

˙uʍop ǝpᴉsdn sᴉɥʇ ƃuᴉpɐǝɹ ǝɹɐ noʎ ɹǝʇǝԀ

[Peter Ward]

I don't think I'm reading it wrong.

In countries such as South Korea where testing extensive and at around 140,000+ at present the mortality rate is running down about to about 0.6%.

COVID19 is certainly highly virulent...but there are nowhere near as many cases as common flu...which the press does not give a toss about....and nearly all people are recovering.

Sure, take precautions. A week ago I suggested Australian cases would top out at a few hundred.....and so far the Dept of health says:

"As at 11:00 hrs on 12 March 2020, we have 126 confirmed cases of coronavirus (COVID-19), including 3 deaths, in Australia"

Not sure how we are going to get to 1.4 million...as some tabloids are predicting...

Care to take bets on what the Oz infection number will be this time next week?

[Paul Haese]

I have it on good authority we have not seen the peak yet and will not see the peak for quite some time. My sister who is a senior scientist immunologist for a large Pharma Firm in the US says that transmission rates are still unknown and vary region to region. The large firms are concerned that the virus is more wide spread that is being stated or test results show. The WHO is now very concerned that not enough is being done to manage the problem. Hence why they have declared a pandemic. Testing in the US is thousands less than what it should be per day. Australia is doing better but still way behind. South Korea is about right at 4000+ tests per day.

Right now there are 134K cases. Yesterday is was 125K cases. That is 9000 cases over night. Italy has 3000 new cases over night. Now at 15,000. Iran, S. Korea, Spain, France and Germany are all in the 2000+ cases now. Australia today has 156 cases. The lack of testing simply because people might not consider the symptoms they have (there is a cold getting around at present, I have had it and wondered if I had contracted the virus; likely not but still I wondered) as being necessitating a test. Not to mention that the test costs money in countries like the US. It is therefore highly likely that the virus is roaming rampant around many countries right now. Even more than you think here. You cannot simply use raw data to extrapolate what is going on.

You need to do an R0 calculation to see that right now it is highly unknown when the peak will be. Fortunately the Chinese took drastic steps to halt transmission in their country, otherwise it would right now be in the tens of millions affected and deaths would be shocking now. Many other countries have not yet done enough to halt transmission. This is ultimately the problem and countries like Australia are still just talking about advice and not acting. Locking down cities and regions is the way to burn it out now.

I hope you are right Peter but I suspect that you are not. The beast has the potential to kill many and mutate for a second round. If it mutates we'll never get a hold of it. It will be like the flu but on steroids.

[PeterM]

So, today is the 13th and we are up from 126 to 156 ...an increase of ...% you can let me know. So what numbers do you predict for tomorrow Pete?

People keep misusing common Flu figures for a 3 month old, new virus, highly contagious, high hospitalisation, with no vaccine in sight. I think you used to occasionally reply with what a load of "bollocks".
Draconian...Nowhere near where we need to be yet.

Though I do admire your optimism. And we need that atm so thank you. I hope you are right.

I have an awful lot to lose if we end up anything like Italy.

[Slawomir]

Correction- it’s about 200 of recorded cases in Australia today.

[OICURMT]

The issue isn't COVID-19 versus the common flu. The common flu mortatility is less thatn 0.1%.
For COVID-19... Death by age bracket is not good. Thankfully not as bad as MERS (34%) or SARS (9.6%).

FYI: First case of the virus in Wyoming USA yesterday. Walmart ran out of toilet paper and people are stocking up. We always carry two months of supplies, so I'm not fussed.

[lazjen]

PeterW has it wrong.

news.com.au has jumped the number up to 199, but as mentioned above the official figure at 11am is 156, which is still a significant growth from the previous day.

Like PeterM, I have a lot to lose. While I'm not an elevated risk for my age, my wife has underlying medical issues that increase her risk, her father is 91 and frail, and my parents are in the mid 70s also with a number of medical issues.

I want a crack down not because I think it will stop it, but to "flatten the wave" and give medical systems a chance to manage it without becoming another Italy.

[Peter Ward]

You raise some good points Paul, and I agree the global peak is unlikely to have been reached as yet. But I believe the situation is Australia is quite different....and also point out China has past peak numbers already.

I suspect with proper containment, the R naught value may well be less than one, plus Modena Inc. have developed a vaccine which is in clinical trials as I write.

If the number of cases in Australia doubles over the weekend, then, I'll happily admit I'm totally off the reservation on this one....but I sincerely doubt it.

[JeniSkunk]

Reported in the tabloid media on March 3.
Brisbane Times, sourced from the New York Times - US testing for coronavirus comes under fire (https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/world/north-america/us-testing-for-coronavirus-comes-under-fire-20200303-p546e5.html)
Basically the US, used too strict conditions to get people tested, instead of using the German detection kits the USA went and tried to create their own. The first batch of US test kits were faulty. The second batch incomplete. And the FDA and CDC were carrying out turf wars against each other on behalf of corporate USA. And to cap things, final testing from results from the incomplete US test kits still has to be done by the CDC.
So numbers of infected in the USA are expected to actively rise.
So how does the testing problems described in that NYT sourced article, affect the USA figures for projected infected and fatalities?

[Imme]

True Peter, the official stats provided by a very secretive government (China) do show a very quick flattening of both the infection and death curve........which more or less match up with the sharp downturn in the China economy. For such an infectious virus I find it a little suspicious to be honest.

One issue I think we have in Victoria atm is the multitude of international visitors to the cancelled Grand Prix are now at a loose end for the weekend. I sincerely doubt they will sit in their hotels and do nothing. From what I understand tour operators out of the city have had a sharp upturn in bookings today......it may be the cancelation of the Grand Prix may just cause a wider spread of infections in to country areas.....just my thoughts

[Peter Ward]

May well be the case...but as someone said: God bless America, and thank Christ for Australia...

Universal health care is not a bad thing ;)

P.S.
The Oz numbers still don't stack up for me. About 244,000 Australians died last year in aged care facilities. Coronary heart disease being the numero uno
cause...but we now are up to 3 COVID19 deaths and there is panic.
I don't get it. What am I missing?

[PeterM]

Your not missing anything as you answered your own question "universal health care" so while hospitals are able to cope with the now 200 infections and our magnificent health care workers arw keeping the deaths to 3. But if we have 15,000 plus and rising like Italy do you really still think we won't have a problem?

[Peter Ward]

Of course those sorts of numbers will be a problem.... if the affected population indeed require hospitalization , but if the vast majority of people present with a runny nose (and little more).....just sayin'....this is hardly Ebola....

Mind you...I hear Dutton has it :D (OK. I'm not a fan)

[PeterM]

Agreement me neither, but I wish the runny nosed polly well in quarantine.

[xelasnave]

I hope folk are mature enough not to enjoy such.
Alex

[PeterM]

You are right Alex, amended. I take no enjoyment in anyone coming down with this. Sincerely wish him well and speedy recovery. Nobody should have to experience what isolation from family and the world is like for 2 weeks or weeks on end.

[Peter Ward]

If the COVID19 R naught is what some say, then by Tuesday we should see 312 or so cases in Oz...and 600 or so by next weekend.

We shall see....

[PeterM]

Amended my estimate to no what an awful game!
There is good news on the vaccine front from Queensland Uni, China and USA. Human volunteer trials very soon. Incredible, maybe science finest hour.

[Ukastronomer]

"In countries such as South Korea where testing extensive and at around 140,000+ at present the mortality rate is running down about to about 0.6%."

Is that fact, or what they tell you and you believe ?


.

[Ukastronomer]

Hence my prediction is in about a month from now, many will be scratching their heads and wonder what the fuss was all about

I hope you are right, but can we remember this quote and comment on in it 6 weeks time :)

Yes 100% the media are a pain, I agree, I am sick of it, eg. How many people here (I don't know your roads) pay ANY attention to the signs that say "accident 40" on motorways any more, no one because for years we have slowed down for miles, NOTHING and sped up again, after years we now ignore it


.

[SimmoW]

I work in aged care, so I find most of this thread awful, to suggest a beat up is life threatening for many thousands of vulnerable folks.

Be safe, vigilant and as soon as you get that dry cough seek treatment. You DO NOT want it to make its way into your lungs. At any age.

[theodog]

I agree, on behalf of my, and my partners, elderly parents.

What harm comes from a little "beat-up" to keep our elders safe?

So you miss your race, you miss your sport? how much would you miss your older family members?

[julianh72]

The first of those links says new cases per day peaked on February 4. The second link shows a graph with a massive spike on about February 13 (due to new diagnosis criteria), and a steady rise in new cases per day all through March - presumably due to the fact that it has now "broken out" to start renewed exponential growth in multiple locations around the globe.

If we can't trust the tabloid media, which of your two links should we trust?

My money says Donald Trump was watching the first one until only a couple of days ago, but the medical professionals are focusing on data as in the second link, and the rate of new cases is still growing globally.

Stay healthy, people!

[julianh72]

Take a look at his latest post (still a few days out of date - March 11) - his current graph shows a clear up-tick of new cases globally at the start of March, and he mentions in passing how the graph in the earlier piece related to new cases in China, not globally - but he hasn't corrected the earlier article, so if you read it today, you might think he is still claiming that new cases of coronavirus are on the decline.

https://www.futurehealth.live/blog/2020/3/11/coronavirus-reporting-examples-from-the-new-york-times-of-what-not-to-do

We haven't beaten coronavirus yet.

[PeterM]

My 32yo son with CP lives in supported living. A serious chest infection from this virus would likely be life ending for him even if he could get the best hospital care. So yes I have a lot to lose. People like you are our front line, I have great respect for you. At a time like this, in your line of work self awareness will make a huge difference to outcomes. If the media is disturbing the overall community enough to check their health when they develop a sore throat, cough, mild fevers before they go to work especially in our aged/disability care then so be it. This is not the time for a "she'll be right" or "soldier on" mentality.

[RB]

A reminder for all members of IIS - think twice before posting.

This is a very sensitive and emotional subject for many.

Expressing 'happiness' that a politician has tested positive will not be tolerated nor will any other posts along similar lines.
One IIS member has already been given a 2-month ban for expressing such in one of his posts.

Please keep posts civil and thoughtful towards others, else please don't post here.

RB

[The Mekon]

All I will say is that in my view, yesterday (Friday 13th) was peak panic day as far as this event goes. Hopefully things will clam down from here on.

[julianh72]

197 cases at 6:30 am on 14 March.
https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert

Peaked? I think not!

[Outcast]

I admire your optimism....

[PeterM]

I amended my post last night by taking out "there should be more of them (pollys) in quarantine" I will show respect and wish a speedy recovery to Mr Dutton now, because he took the advice to test and speak out and go into quarantine. Bravo. However as the "tabloid press" and qualified professionals are now stating many more of our pollys who came into contact with him should be tested and in self quarantine at least. As I thought last night. But they seem to be finding excuses. If it doesn't start at the top with well qualified advice we are up ship creek and the "tabloid press" who are balancing out their reports with highly qualified advice maybe all we have. Better than an obscure link or two.
If I am banned for speaking my mind then my very best thoughts for you and your families including the op.

[Peter Ward]

I'm also following the Department of health website with some interest as they have no interest in headlines....as they used to say in Dragnet, "just the facts, m'am , just the facts"

27 cases have recovered. So the actives cases in Oz are at 170. I'd suggest it's too early to tell whether recovery will outweigh new cases at this point.

Australian Dept of health and welfare state:

"The leading cause of death for all older Australians was coronary heart disease—51,600 deaths between 2014 and 2016, followed by dementia and Alzheimer disease (37,400 deaths), cerebrovascular disease (29,800), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (19,500) and lung cancer (19,200)"

or about 520 people a day for the 2014/16 period. COVID19 deaths remain at 3 in one month (or so)

[RB]

No Peter, I don't think I've ever come across any of your posts to find them offensive, hurtful towards others, or against the TOS.

RB
:thumbsup:

[OICURMT]

National Emergency declared in the USA

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/13/politics/donald-trump-emergency/index.html

[Slawomir]

I hope we won’t get it as bad as Italians - family members are not allowed to see their loved ones in hospitals and some die in hospitals alone without having family on their side. Then bodies are cremated without family consent and families do not really know what happens to those in hospitals. People are not allowed to leave towns, so a number of people with needs became isolated in their homes and are left without family support. Sounds like some horrible war movie but it’s true.

I am worried that we are far from reaching the peak in this country.

[Imme]

I think it is not so much the deaths Peter, the significant concern is the economy. Basically putting a stop to it.....and everyone’s earning ability. Think about those poor folk with no holiday pay or savings up their sleeves but bills to pay. Thy will not have an income for the period of any widespread shutdowns.

In my line of work (local gov) we had a meeting yesterday, the tone the subject matter was presented in was fairly dire.
I wwouldn’t be surprised if by next week schools were closed (speaking to a local teacher they have been advised by principal to prepare a weeks worth of online classes over weekend) and ‘services’ were scaled back to essential only.
I also hear (from a good source) that ambulance transports were up by 80% yesterday in Victoria......but hospital emergency room admissions were at a normal level.....what does that mean????

[julianh72]

Live: 250 die in Italy on coronavirus's deadliest day
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-14/coronavirus-live-blog-covid-19-rolling-coverage/12055334

That's 250 deaths in one 24-hour period, in one country.

I think the only prudent thing for Australia to do right now is to take any and all measures necessary to try to prevent an outbreak here of similar magnitude.

[brisen]

Having worked as a Paramedic, I would suggest that the increase in transports could be two fold - it could be facilities clearing patients who are able to be safely discharged ahead of the projected surge to allow the facilities extra surge capacity if required. The other factor is that not all patients transported by paramedics are taken to an ED, the fact that ED admissions were static does suggest that most were not going to ED nad in fact may be going the other way.

I would be leaning to an increase in discharge to allow for increased surge capacity in the facilities. As anyone working in the health sector will be aware, there is a surge capacity that exists routinely and is used to cope with a MCI event. I would be expecting that the current event will exceed the existing surge capacity due to the protracted nature of the event.

Brian

[Imme]

That makes a lot of sense

[JA]

Peter you have my best possible wishes for the safety of your son.

Best
JA

[DarkArts]

I'm not sure where those numbers come from. For 2018 - the most recent year for which processed figures are available - the ABS quotes 158,493 registered deaths (https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/0/47E19CA15036B04BCA2577570014668B?Op endocument) from all causes, which is 434 per day, on average.

The leading category (i.e. several diseases combined, not a single disease) is Ischaemic Heart Diseases, which caused 17,533 deaths or 48 deaths per day, on average.

These comparisons are, however, quite meaningless at this stage, especialy since it is very early days for COVID-19. The only way that this could be a useful comparison is to wait until COVID-19 has run its course and then calculate the mortality figures in retrospect.

For now, though there is considerable uncertainty, we can project what the mortality figures might be based on modelled scenarios derived from mortality rates so far recorded. That's where the maths becomes sobering when considering that this is a single disease that is additive to existing mortality causes.

[RobF]

No one knows for sure, but its not looking good.
While its true the daily death rate was moderating a couple of weeks ago, as China's control measures started to succeed in starving the virus, the "rest of the world" figures are only now starting to bite. And these figures always lag the true rates:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-toll/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Most likely Australia is just a month or two behind other 1st world countries where the virus is taking hold. The more we slow the spread within cities, the better our healthcare and ICUs can give quality care to that small % that get really sick. If we don't do this, then overwhelmed hospitals = manyfold greater mortality unfortuantely.

Fortunately Australian healthcare has top of the line testing capability and its freely available to every Aussie regardless of their wealth. The good news if the % positive rate from the thousands of coronavirus tests done every week in Australia is currently extremely low.

[raymo]

The part about testing is actually incorrect Rob. We don't have an abundance of test kits, and testing is not freely available. You have to meet applied criteria in order to get tested. Our testing numbers are waaay behind many other countries', which is helping to keep our case numbers artificially low.
We do a few thousand tests every week, some countries are doing 10-20,000 tests per day; South Korea is a good example, and being able
to isolate all the positive cases has resulted in hugely less new cases and deaths, as their recent figures clearly show.
The U.S. is an example of the same dodgy case data as ours, as they have up to now done almost no testing, probably due to having very few test kits available. They are listed as having just over 2000 cases, but it is widely believed that the true figure is waaay higher than that.
raymo

[PeterM]

So 126 to 156 to 200 is 25% then 30% increase in daily numbers here if I am right. 17% increase yesterday in Italy but with bigger numbers. So doesnt need an Einstein to see where this IS heading. Im flabbergasted op is still quoting flu numbers and coronary deaths etc.

[Shiraz]

Unfortunately, that's the case according to the experts. https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/professional/chief-medical-officer-update-on-coronavirus-testin https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/10/coronavirus-response-a-shambles-doctors-and-patients-complain-of-confusing-processes

And.. the premise of this thread is way out of left field. According to the WHO, the virus is largely out of control in Europe (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51876784), probably in the US (who knows) and it will probably do untold damage in the less developed nations. As the graph that Rob posted shows (#48), this is not a beat up - it is deadly serious and very upsetting to so many of us.

Cheers Ray

[RobF]

In Qld at least Raymo, testing is freely available for those that need it, capacity to test is increasing each week, and the current rate of % positive results is extremely small. Its not appropriate medicine to test every individual that feels they should be tested. Appropriate testing means your Dr recommends based on your clinical state, recent risks, etc

[axle01]

A doctor who graduated with a master's degree and who worked in Shenzhen Hospital (Guangdong Province, China) sent the following notes on Coronavirus for guidance:
1. If you have a runny nose and sputum, you have a common cold
2. Coronavirus pneumonia is a dry cough with no runny nose.
3. This new virus is not heat-resistant and will be killed by a temperature of just 26/27 degrees. It hates the Sun.
4. If someone sneezes with it, it takes about 10 feet before it drops to the ground and is no longer airborne.
5. If it drops on a metal surface it will live for at least 12 hours - so if you come into contact with any metal surface - wash your hands as soon as you can with a bacterial soap.
6. On fabric it can survive for 6-12 hours. normal laundry detergent will kill it.
7. Drinking warm water is effective for all viruses. Try not to drink liquids with ice.
8. Wash your hands frequently as the virus can only live on your hands for 5-10 minutes, but - a lot can happen during that time - you can rub your eyes, pick your nose unwittingly and so on.
9. You should also gargle as a prevention. A simple solution of salt in warm water will suffice.
10. Can't emphasise enough - drink plenty of water!
THE SYMPTOMS
1. It will first infect the throat, so you'll have a sore throat lasting 3/4 days
2. The virus then blends into a nasal fluid that enters the trachea and then the lungs, causing pneumonia. This takes about 5/6 days further.
3. With the pneumonia comes high fever and difficulty in breathing.
4. The nasal congestion is not like the normal kind. You feel like you're drowning. It's imperative you then seek immediate attention.
SPREAD THE WORD - PLEASE SHARE.

[Peter Ward]

What? No hoarding of toilet paper!? He can't be right :)

BTW I see our Home Affairs minister is "feeling much better" already.

[julianh72]

But for now much longer?

Australian stocks of coronavirus testing kits 'rapidly deteriorating', says chief medical officer

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/mar/14/coronavirus-australian-stocks-of-covid-19-testing-kits-rapidly-deteriorating-says-chief-medical-officer?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_t o_clipboard

[RobF]

Depends if what you call a "kit" is the collection swabs, transport media, PPE for collection staff, skilled collector, or the lab reagents, lab staff, etc.

No denying any of these items may be produced in China or affected by Covid travel disruptions, but again, if the spread of the virus is slowed, then the rate of consumption of these items (and the entire health system) is better able to cope.

Fortunately testing providers don't panic buy collection swabs like people at my local Woolies buy toilet paper :lol:

[PeterM]

BTW I see NSW had it's biggest
increase in daily numbers today. You didn't mention that...... ...I hope they are in good health, recover well and leave hospital asap.

[xelasnave]

Would it not make sense to require that in public everyone must wear a face mask.

Wearing clothing for modesty is enforced by law... is it unreasonable to require a little more clothing in the form of a mask..you know you can't leave the house without pants and a mask....as I understand things a mask offers only a little protection from picking it up but perhaps of much more value by limiting the damage from folk coughing from their side.


Alex

[AstralTraveller]

It's not only the number of test kits that is an issue. A mate has flu-like symptoms and his GP had him tested. The results will take a week to come back, rather than the typical 2 days for pathology. Of course he is taking at cautious approach and is self-isolating. That's a week that his job won't be done. Multiply that by the number of tests and the impact of the delay will be huge. And that's without considering how many people won't self-isolate correctly.

[Peter Ward]

I'm still going for 300 in Australia by Tuesday and 600 by next weekend....

I note Oz COVID19 deaths remain static...and the fact that about 40,000 people have died from less "interesting" causes since this thing started in Oz.....hence have not had any media attention.

[Merlin66]

Being in the “at risk” demongraphic Where the death rate is >15% we’ll steer clear of risk areas.

[PeterM]

Seriously Peter, this far into your thread and this is all you have, a couple of links and "I'm still going for 300 & 600" and "more people die from" .. put it on sports bet you might just win big.
Toilet rolls .... huh who gives a toss, try buying hand sanitizer, something, my son Tyler's house (that's his name) could really use at the moment, can't even get any from anywhere. So if you think this is one big beat up that little fact there.... oh forget it what the heck. Thanks for your well wishes by the way.......I will stop feeding you now, you have every right to an opinion. My very best wishes to you and your loved ones in the coming weeks/months if you are proven wrong, not that your opinion will change/mean anything. Best to all on IIS.

[lazjen]

Note that the 300/600 number you're estimating is close to the doubling every 3 - 5 days - which we've seen elsewhere. Ignoring the under-testing that's likely, we're maybe a couple weeks behind what's happening in Europe. I'm hoping that with the expanded awareness we might be able to slow down our doubling.

The aim is to flatten the curve as much as possible and to give the health system as much chance as possible to handle things. The longer it takes to double, the greater the chance for those currently infected to recover and the gap between total and recovered can reduce.

Btw, I think those numbers will be close to correct, unless they start changing the testing coverage.

[SimmoW]

One forecast by a respected Australian expert. FB link included.

Maybe Peter you can use this to help adjust your no doubt large investment portfolio (go short on public welfare linked businesses and long on mask and body bag manufacturers like 3M), then use the profits to invest in a few mortgagee sales soon to occur. Strike while the iron is hot!

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10222076149243 463&id=1554091604&sfnsn=mo

[graham.hobart]

Speaking from the front line as an emergency doctor

1/ the mortality reported in Italy and China is close to 20% for the over 65's
also with comorbities such as diabetes and asthma
2/Children and younger people seem to be spared=for now

3/ people walking around supermarkets with masks is not helpful- even in my hospital we are stretched with supplies and people keep nicking them

4/ Yesterday I saw a query case and although he was in a negative pressure room, I doubled gloved gowned and masked four or five times before he was moved to a dedicated area outside of DEM. Me plus two nurses and his partner burning through the commodities.
5/cases are under reported by a huge amount, public health does simply not have the capacity in each state to establish a base line let alone swab every one with a sore throat
6/my hospital just changed two emergency short stay wards into respiratory wards, and ordered 32 more ventilators.
7/no one in my profession is under any illusion that this is a **** fest- In Italy they could not treat other emergencies as the whole place was saturated with respiratory cases-including trauma and heart conditions etc
8/ I was teaching medical students recently and mentioned that in the 50's Polio epidemics there were not enough "iron lungs" so students took turns bagging patients for hours at a time- ,this may actually happen again .
My advice, stock up, keep away from crowds, wait it out. I cannot do that myself but wish you all the best.
https://threader.app/thread/1237142891077697538

[xelasnave]

Thanks for your valuable input Grahame.
I presume your concern re masks is from a supply aspect? Would it not make sense for all to wear masks...a cloth or such?
Alex

[Tropo-Bob]

That's the most useful information that I have seen to date. Thanks for sharing.

[graham.hobart]

The problem is - community infection is only established with close physical contact and droplet spread for now , aerosols are being avoided just in case.
If every one wears a mask A OK but there won't be enough
hand wash masks and avoid public areas, these are common sense things we should all be doing
Masks for people pending test results, with symptoms and in vocational contact with these.
WHO and Aus guidelines currently classify risk as
international travel within last 14 days with coryzal like illness sore throat cough fevers fatigue etc
or
close contact with known case
or
unexplained community acquired pneumonia
although once the community transmission is established the international travel bit will be inconsequential.

[xelasnave]

That's what I am thinking.

It would be a good idea for us to consider what is probably going on...the emotions that are stretched.

I am sure everyone is very worried... About the situation from dieing, losing jobs, to losing your nest egg ...you can make a list.

Each person's fear or concern will manifest in different ways and the predictable result will be arguments.

I am very concerned. When in a fix I tend to become flippant. Others will be analytical some defensive the reactions will definitely be different...so it is a time to try and realise it is in these stressful times you will observe different ways of managing concerns.

Peace to all.
Alex

[GrahamL]

Graham sincere thanx for your dedication .


Treatment, observations , and improvements hopefully are evolving and being shared thoughout the medical communuity .


I guess we can all just try to follow the advice for now and try and be nice to each other ,, yeah ?


I noticed a globemaster doing a couple of low fly ins at the local airport yesterday , didnt stop in , moving south .

[h0ughy]

Sorry guys but some are too sensitive and some extremely insensitive read RB Post's again very clearly as this thread is now closed