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Old 02-08-2022, 04:42 PM
gary
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BOM : More rain on the way for Australia as NSW readies for more flooding

Quote:
Originally Posted by Laura Chung and Miki Perkins, Sydney Morning Herald August 2, 2022 — 5.10pm

Australia is likely to receive more heavy rain in late winter and into spring after the Bureau of Meteorology declared a negative Indian Ocean Dipole was under way in the nation’s north-west.


...


It also brings a high chance of above-average rainfall over large areas of Australia in late winter and spring.

“We are seeing one of those developing this week, thanks to a strong cold front linking up with tropical moisture,” said Weatherzone meteorologist Ben Domensino.

This is the second negative IOD in a row, with the same weather pattern occurring last year. This is only the second time a negative IOD has occurred back-to-back since reliable records began in 1960.

“This has coincided with back-to-back La Niña events as well,” Domensino said. “Australia, at the moment, is stuck in this prolonged period of wet phase climate drivers – the broadscale patterns that influence our weather.”

The outlook for eastern NSW and eastern Queensland, which have been inundated with recent rains, is for above-average rain in the coming months, both because of the IOD and the La Niña weather pattern.

As the north-west cloud bands drift across the continent, most of the rain will fall on the western side of the Great Dividing Range, a different weather pattern to that which has caused flooding in Sydney and other regions over the past eight months.

It may also reach some areas of southern NSW and northern Victoria that have had below-average rainfall this year.


....

NSW SES spokesman Greg Nash said the worst of the wet weather was likely to hit on Wednesday and into Thursday, with some areas to receive between 20 and 50 millimetres of rain.

“The forecast that has been provided to us is that there is going to be substantial rains coming up around the western slopes and around the ACT,” he said. “The SES is preparing by moving additional resources into those areas.”

The BOM previously warned that saturated soil from recent rainfall events, as well as full water systems – including most dams around NSW above 70 per cent capacity – would exacerbate flooding risks. It will be several more months until the agency can declare a third successive La Niña event, but there is a 50 per cent chance one could occur.
Full story here :-
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/w...02-p5b6ni.html
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Old 02-08-2022, 05:21 PM
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Stonius (Markus)
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So by 'Australia' they mean 'NSW'...
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Old 02-08-2022, 06:51 PM
gary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stonius View Post
So by 'Australia' they mean 'NSW'...
Quoting the article :-

Quote:
Originally Posted by Laura Chung and Miki Perkins, SMH
When the Indian Ocean is cooler than average on the western side, and warmer than average on the eastern side, it causes more moisture-laden air to flow to Australia and fuels the north-west cloud bands that develop over north-western Australia, extending to the south-west of the continent.

It also brings a high chance of above-average rainfall over large areas of Australia in late winter and spring.
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Old 02-08-2022, 06:53 PM
Startrek (Martin)
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No problem with rain, we need it especially in the drier areas of our Continent, it’s the “rain bombs” that we don’t want , they are just simply destructive when dumping + 400mm in one region over a week ( NSW )
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Old 02-08-2022, 06:56 PM
gary
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The BOM reports in the Climate Model Summary for August to
December 2022 issued 12 July and updated today, 2 August :-

Quote:
Originally Posted by BOM
Negative IOD likely to continue through spring; models suggest La Niña may return later in 2022

A negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event is underway. All model outlooks indicate that negative IOD conditions are likely to continue into late spring. A negative IOD event increases the chances of above average winter and spring rainfall across much of Australia, as well as influencing rainfall patterns in countries around the Indian Ocean basin.

While the 2021–22 La Niña has ended, a La Niña WATCH remains, meaning there is around a 50% chance of a La Niña event returning later in 2022. Most models predict neutral conditions until the end of August. However, by October four of seven models indicate the tropical Pacific Ocean will cool again to La Niña levels. It is likely that ocean temperature patterns in the Pacific will still contribute to wetter than average conditions across eastern Australia, even if La Niña thresholds are not reached.
Reference :-
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/model-...#tabs=Overview
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Old 03-08-2022, 10:45 AM
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strongmanmike (Michael)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gary View Post
The BOM reports in the Climate Model Summary for August to
December 2022 issued 12 July and updated today, 2 August :-



Reference :-
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/model-...#tabs=Overview
Damn! ....
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Old 03-08-2022, 11:39 AM
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Crater101 (Warren)
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Not good news. Firstly because I've had about three clear nights in the past four weeks (I live in the Central West of NSW); Secondly because I live in a rural location with a number of causeways nearby, and when we get a rain "event" we tend to get cut off for a few days...


Don't mistake me - we're on tank water and knowing that they're full is always a good thing, but the ground is sodden.
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