I for one will NEVER buy a battery EV, especially while I live in a rural area. Range, recharging times, worse performance in cold weather (recharging and range), degradation of battery performance over time and the carbon footprint of battery manufacture all factor in to my thinking.
I will however be an early adopter of Hydrogen fuel cell cars when the technology matures and so long as the refuelling infrastructure is in place. Ask me again in 10 years.
Let's look at this idea of poor EV battery performance in cold weather. These are not lead acid batteries, and this is not northern Canada or Norway in January. A typical Li cell will lose about 1/3 of its current capacity at -10C, which would be the about the coldest it could encounter in Australia. This causes a reduction in range, but can be countered somewhat by battery heating. Common accessories in cold countries would include battery heaters, insulation blankets, etc. LI batteries suffer from minimal degraded output performance over time, the life span is expressed in terms of the number of charging cycles. Average lifespan is usually quoted as 7 years assuming daily use, or should I say the recommended change interval is seven years.
Changing of battery packs is fairly straight forward, and likely to be increasingly serviceable in years to come.
As Europe moves towards elimination of ICE production targets, more and more innovation in EV service, products, etc will drive efficiencies. Tesla is about to release its Semi Prime Mover.
Sure, right now, you would not invest in an EV to haul a road train across the country, but never say never.
LI batteries to not suffer from degraded performance over time, the life span is expressed in terms of the number of charging cycles.
Respectfully glend, I disagree. I've been doing some homework into solar with battery storage for our home and Tesla only quote 70% capacity after 10 years.
While I hope that in 10 years time the replacements will be a lot cheaper, the Powerwall units are still quite costly at the moment. For a good sized home, it almost makes more sense to buy the EV and use it as battery storage. Especially as a retiree or a "work from home"-ee...
Respectfully glend, I disagree. I've been doing some homework into solar with battery storage for our home and Tesla only quote 70% capacity after 10 years.
While I hope that in 10 years time the replacements will be a lot cheaper, the Powerwall units are still quite costly at the moment. For a good sized home, it almost makes more sense to buy the EV and use it as battery storage. Especially as a retiree or a "work from home"-ee...
I agree with you on this Dunk, in relation to home batteries, because the recommended life span of EV batteries is seven years. The big limiting factor on Li battery life is charge cycles, they have a finite number of cycles. So i am not at all surprised about a 10 year replacement term, in fact I would suggest that is optimistic.
I have an AGM battery bank attached to my (standalone) shed solar system, which has been in place for nine years now. I am on second set of 4 x 100AH AGM batteries. Given the cost of the batteries, I cannot make a business case for doing it again, but it has been an interesting technical exercise.
I will not buy a Powerwall or other home battery solution, especially when I can sell my excess home roof generated power to the Grid for no added cost. The business case for my home rooftop, return to grid system, had a three year payback, nine years ago.
There will be no choice if the car manufacturing industry is no longer making ICE cars.
I know it will be a while but it will happen.
I believe 2030 is a key year, when most EU manufacturers will have stopped all ICE production. The US Federal government has a program to convert its entire vehicle fleet to EV, thanks to a Joe Biden initiative. This program creates a critical mass incentive for US EV production. If key markets like these create a tipping point, the world market will follow, or be marginalised to deliveries in countries like Australia, and you can bet ICE unit costs of production will rise as EV costs of production decline.
In the EU there has emerged a fairly significant new auto service sector, EV battery pack replacements, and upgrades. Utube has a number of these businesses featured, I have attached one here:
A couple I have watched are focused on the long selling Nissan Leaf, and the significantly larger capacity packs now available for these older vehicles.
It suggests that the battery capacity you might buy today in a new EV, may, upon replacement in seven or so years, gain significant range enhancement.
And importantly, a whole new automotive sector emerge here in Australia.
Good for you. A lot of people have voted with their feet and put PV on their roofs even if it does not have much of a payback period without complex heat pumps. The result is that governments and generators have had to plan to adapt the infrastructure and move forward instead of setting the voters against each other. The same will happen with EV and battery storage , particularly if hydrogen fuel cells become widespread in cars and houses. The metal hydride fuel cells are said to have a 30 year life. Tesla can get stuffed too.
Quote:
Originally Posted by AdamJL
My next car will be an EV. My current car is only 3 years old so it’ll be a few more years yet but definitely I’ll be buying an EV. And I’ll be getting a battery for my home. Luddite Governments can get stuffed.
So can you also say that the infrastructure doesn't exist for petrol vehicles?
No?
Okay then, is it that there are no charging stations to be found withinin that 500km journey?
Nope. Look at the map. You'd struggle to drive 500km anywhere in coastal Australia *without running across a charging station.
And let's face it, no-one drives for 800km without stopping, do they? Snacks, wee breaks, etc. I really don't understand what the reticence is here. My next car will be electric, I'm hoping. But without mass adoption we're being left behind in what is an inevitable change. Already car manufacturers are avoiding releasing electric models here because our environmental policies are so backward they damage market. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-...rket/100173124
Free markets are deciding in favor of renewables all over the world, except here for some reason.
Free markets are deciding in favor of renewables all over the world, except here for some reason.
Markus
Couldn't be bothered showing the whole quote, Marcus all good points, I think a lot of people think the government has to set up the infrastructure. In most countries overseas the infrastructure is done by private enterprise. The same exists for fuel vehicles although the Government lacks the initiative to be fair. If they were to provide the same support to ICE support and revenue to EVs, it would be a different story.
But it appears in recent reports the Government are more inclined to support Hydrogen power vehicles. In saying that the failing is then the Government are forcing consumers into one area instead of providing choice.
Anyway, all the myth reports on EV's from manufacture to disposal has all been debunked. EV's are far closer to carbon-neutral and ICE, mostly due to ongoing running.
I would love to get an EV, but I do want to travel and under the current environment I am not sure I can afford a decent EV for quite a while yet.
I would also like to go camping, but EV's that are accessible will out of the price range for a lot longer. For Australia, it is mostly for the rich or well to do. Until there is a swing in popularity.
BTW, is only a condensed map, there are a lot more re-charging stations out there. I could even if all goes well be able to make it across the Nullabor on the current set-up. The only issue would be confidence in the infrastructure. Not entirely there yet.
My next vehicle will be EV in several years time, probably a Toyota or Subaru SUV. I expect decent range and towing capacity as well. I don't need to drive 1000kms and frankly, my days of doing any trips that long are probably behind me. My longest distance trips these days, would possibly get to 500km in a day, with several stops along the way. Plenty of time to top up the charge.
I do expect, because of our incompetent, corrupt politicians that I will pay an unnecessary premium for the car though.
Unfortuantely that map is a bit misleading people are not going to hang around for 10-20 hrs to have their cars charged (Green) fast charges 1/2-1hrs are few and far between and unless EV's can gives ranges comparable to current fossil fuel cars then your market is going to be limited to city commuters for some time to come. Oh and I can attest to the fact that a lot of people will drive considerable distances in WA without stopping even if they do stop for a pee or drink they don't want ot wait around for hours for their car to charge
In addition to the number and distance between fast charge points for an electric vehicle one should also factor in the availability / distance to EV capable service centers. Vehicle reliability should also factor in to that consideration.
It’s amazing how opinion passes as fact with the help of a little mis-information from the fossil fuel industry ( including multinationals that are richer than many small countries, allowing them to buy their politicians..and they do) and helps to stoke old EV fears/falsehoods/prejudice.
You laugh?
Well, Scotty from marketing announced a week or so ago that Australian taxpayers (yes, that's a good slab of your wages taken as tax) would give $2.3 Billion in subsidies to prop up Australian oil refineries.
One wonders how $2.3 billion would go for the installation of a national fast EV charging network... the Libs however are duplicitous as while they apparently believe in a subsidy-free market system (well one has to be reasonable...and exclude the fossil fuel industry) .. and one certainly can't use taxpayer funds to actually encourage any EV uptake around here.
After 18 months of ownership I recently got rid of my first EV.
I now have my second EV ( being a "rich urban dwelling type" it is also a Tesla) as the new 2021 model has increased range (To be sure, Tesla lie claiming 628km....in practice it's 540km in real world driving…but advertising is full of myths).
It's still brilliant. Costs bugger all to run (I charge it with our PV panels) plus it has NO emissions. Well, the humans in it might fart/belch but that's it.
I'll be driving it to the Parkes CWAS astrofest this year. The car will easily cover the 291km distance from Sydney, but Tesla's supercharging station at Bathurst will provide a welcome coffee/tea/pee stop and allay any range anxiety plus the need to charge it while in Parkes. The round trip will likely come with a $6.40 supercharger energy bill, but my ICE car would have chewed 70 odd litres of fuel to do the same trip. Do the math with the ICE fuel of your choice. Bugger. 15x more expensive.
As for glib comments about Tesla's being glued together, they are utter rubbish: even a cursory look at their production-line welding-robots shows this is pure BS, as are other safety red herrings. The facts are that the USA's NTSB crash test results rated them has having one of the highest safety scores EVER.
Lastly for those saying they will never own an EV, with the likes of VW, JLR, Lamborghini, Volvo, Kia ,GM all going to EV only production, I predict ICE offerings will be next to nil within a decade. Battery energy densities have doubled in the past decade, hence expect a +1000km range in the next decade. BTW the batteries are recycled already to recover their Lithium and other rare earths.
Those clinging to ICE technology better get used to walking, or maybe treading water as the EV Tsunami is coming whether you like it or not. It's not like we actually have a car industry to take a contrary position.
Here's a thought. Resurrect the Australian car industry and manufacture coal powered cars.
Scotty from marketing I believe has this plan.... he'll make them in Stanley (Northern Tasmania) to lure those unreasonable tree-hugging green voters that infest the region ....and already has name for it: "The Stanley Steamer" ! (worth a Google)
Last edited by Peter Ward; 31-05-2021 at 11:00 PM.
Reason: typo
Mr Ward you are funny, I was wondering how long it would take for you to comment. I beg to differ and bet you not in 20 years for this country, we will be buying all those ICE vehicles they can't sell elsewhere
Here's a thought. Resurrect the Australian car industry and manufacture coal powered cars.
Scotty from marketing I believe has this plan.... he'll make them in Stanley (Northern Tasmania) to lure those unreasonable tree-hugging green voters that infest the region ....and already has name for it: "The Stanley Steamer" ! (worth a Google)
That’s gold! Googled it and am also currently listening to the Stanley Steamer by Jo Stafford on Spotify whilst imagining Scotty from marketing in top hat and tails calling “roll up, roll up for a journey into the future in the miracle of the modern age!”
Free markets are deciding in favor of renewables all over the world, except here for some reason.
Markus
I don't reckon even that is right.
Despite all the noise in Canberra the free market is deserting coal fired power like rats from a sinking ship. The generator owners are putting their money where they see the future lying and coal fired generators are dropping off one by one. Meanwhile I work for one of a large number of companies that are madly building decently large scale renewables and/or storage technologies. The federal government may be wringing their hands and decrying the "Loss" of generation capacity with Lidell closes, but AEMO does not agree with them at all what the potential shortfall is, and I bet you the hole is filled by the time Lidell actually closes. Remember the predictions about massive price rises and blackouts in Vic when Hazlewood closed?
Regards Teslas and being glued together, quite apart from what Peter wrote above, what about it? Plenty of modern cars are bonded with adhesives in lots of places rather than welded. A friend had to fill the sunroof of a rally car he was building as openings like that in the roof were not allowed. He had a panel formed with a rolled edge to fit the hole precisely and fitted it with a metal adhesive. Prior tests showed that (As the seller advised him would be the case) the metal would tear before the adhesive gave away.
We are just waiting for delivery of what I am quite sure will be our last new purely fossil fueled car. EV is not quite there yet for our use scenarios and there are no suitable hybrids for now, but I am pretty sure that an EV will fit the bill by the time we need to replace our next car in five or six years.
Last edited by The_bluester; 31-05-2021 at 09:37 PM.
Am a vOLUNTEER IN THE rURAL fIRE sERVICE, Bush fire brigade.
a FEW YEARS AGO OUR BRIGADE WAS TOLD if we are called to an Accident with an Hybrid Electric Car we should stand well bACK AND LET IT BURN, EVEN if there are People trapped inside.
See the fumes from the burning batteries are toxic, and our RFS bushfire brigade does not carry breathing equipment.
New car may be different, but that was what we were told a few years ago.
in such a case we would call on our radios for a Town Brigade with breathing gear, but by then any occupants of that electric car would be dead.
So these cars may suit in the city, but not away from the city.
It is a pity the prospect of an electric car has become a somewhat emotional prospect.
It need not be so for it cant happen over night.
There are approximately one and a half billion cars in the world and current production of electric cars I think would be around 4 million per annum...now even if production of electric cars doubles each year, which at some point it simply can not maintain such growth and at best must level out a production level equivalent to the current production of internal combustion engine cars, it will take time... if one were to think it thru one will realise it will take some considerable time to replaced all the internal combustion engine cars.
Those who want it to happen immediately are simply unrealistic .
I think what we could find is there will be a place for the internal combustion engine for a very long time to come whilst we wait for practical recharging solutions etc.
I think a good idea a little down the track would be to have a set up like with the trams where on major highways we have a cable that electric cars can hook onto that takes away the range problem...so a trip from Melbourne to Brisbane would require only rest stops as fuel stops would at that point be a thing of the past...
The real problem that even now is developing is each camp has no tolerance of the other which is really stupid ...the market will determine the outcome and by the market I mean the market as influenced by political lobbyists...and that is the way it always has been and always will.
Finally electricity will most likely win because you can transport it down a wire which is cheaper than a fleet of tankers and storage tanks...the oil lobbies really are fighting a lossing battle long term.
Alex
...and that is the way it always has been and always will.
