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  #21  
Old 26-09-2021, 08:12 AM
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I think the main issue to address is the month of July.
It was named such after Julius Caesar in recognition of him being a great man and a great general...now the fact was he put at least 200 villiages to the sword saving only able bodied people who he sold as slaves..and responsible for a terrible civil war seeing many folk die...and we accept a month called July ...we may as well have a month named after Hitler because he was handy at war...these are the main issues to deal with.
Alex
  #22  
Old 26-09-2021, 09:01 AM
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Wow that was a big response, with many different views on the subject, thank you to all.
I thought that this post may have offended some, apparently not.

Have a nice day and stay safe.

Leon
  #23  
Old 26-09-2021, 04:01 PM
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I think the primary reason, other than population density, NSW and VIC have the large outbreak is because these two states have accepted international flights with a very broken hotel quarantine system. The other states have been a lot more cautious, but I fear once they led down the gates, vaccinated or not, delta will spread.

Lewis, I mostly agree with what you have written, but hasten to point out that the latest research paper (that I heard about from Norman Swan on Coronacast towards the end of last week) actually showed that delta is somewhat more lethal than the original covid-19. I do agree that most viruses will mutate towards being less lethal, but that is not a given, especially in a virus that spreads easily before symptoms arise. Once the spread happens the virus has been successful and there is no evolutionary pressure for the virus to become less lethal; it can just as easily become more lethal. It is just all chance.

Peter
  #24  
Old 26-09-2021, 04:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LewisM View Post
Iceland - the world's most vaccinated nation with over 90% done, is undergoing another outbreak amongst the vaccinated (few hospitalisations or deaths, but HIGH case numbers).
Iceland has administered 162k doses per 100k people. That could be, for example, 90% first and 70% second dose. A bit ahead of NSW, but not by much. Similar to ACT.

They’ve had no deaths in September, and on average ~40 cases per day.
  #25  
Old 26-09-2021, 04:40 PM
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Iceland has administered 162k doses per 100k people. That could be, for example, 90% first and 70% second dose. A bit ahead of NSW, but not by much. Similar to ACT.

They’ve had no deaths in September, and on average ~40 cases per day.
Can you fairly compare statistics between a country that has an area size of around 104,000 square Km's and a population of 340,000 to NSW's which has an area size of 810,000 square Km's and a population of about 7 million?
  #26  
Old 26-09-2021, 06:28 PM
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What are they doing wrong, no blame, is it the climate

Delta started overseas. NSW takes the most amount of inbound travellers in the country. VIC second.
That means unless the quarantine system is watertight, Delta will get out.

Delta did indeed get out, because of a failure in the quarantine system.

Once it was in the public sphere, the NSW government failed to act quickly enough to shut down, and it was too late to contain.
  #27  
Old 26-09-2021, 10:35 PM
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Some good recent points though comparisons with previous years flu seasons aren't really valid given lack of lockdowns and isolation.
  #28  
Old 26-09-2021, 11:15 PM
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Some good recent points though comparisons with previous years flu seasons aren't really valid given lack of lockdowns and isolation.

My understanding is the case fatality rate can't really be compared either. Covid is an order of magnitude higher. Once everyone's vaccinated the idea is that he case fatality rate will be resemble the flu. Infections will be sky-high, but deaths will be on a similar level to a normal flu year so, back to normal.


Hopefully, (fingers crossed).


Markus
  #29  
Old 27-09-2021, 06:47 AM
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I think the primary reason, other than population density, NSW and VIC have the large outbreak is because these two states have accepted international flights with a very broken hotel quarantine system.

I think you're right about the quarantine system. It is possible to contain infectious diseases in purpose built facilities with properly trained staff, but we did away with our infectious diseases hospital under Jeff Kennet in 1996.


It's easy to resign oneself to the inevitability of it getting out, and once out, being unable to control it, (because it's Delta) but a lot of people forget that Victoria beat Delta strain with lockdown number 5.


It was having it reintroduced from NSW a few days later that just destroyed Melburnians. It was the straw that broke the camel's back and a lot of people stopped doing the right thing because what was the point in doing all that hard work when our neighbors could undo it so swiftly?
  #30  
Old 27-09-2021, 08:48 AM
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Here you go
Attached Thumbnails
Click for full-size image (covid.jpg)
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  #31  
Old 27-09-2021, 09:15 AM
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Here you go
Lucy should know ... she is one ... they way she keeps pulling the Football away just before Charlie Brown can kick it.
  #32  
Old 27-09-2021, 10:07 AM
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Some good recent points though comparisons with previous years flu seasons aren't really valid given lack of lockdowns and isolation.
Exactly. When such comparisons are trotted out, they fail to consider that for all those past outbreak/flu seasons there was absolutely zero social distancing, zero lockdowns, zero quarantining, zero attention to hand hygiene etc etc in place, ie the viruses just ran a muck to spread and infect as they pleased. Had the strict measures we currently see for Covid19 been in place for those periods/years, then the number of sick and dead would have been vastly lower! It really is a terrible oversight and quite misleading comparison.

Mike
  #33  
Old 27-09-2021, 10:26 AM
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1. Get Vaccinated - it helps you and everyone else
2. Wear a mask - this is more to help everyone else, but that then helps you.
3. While waiting for vaccination numbers to be high enough, live in an area where the leaders lead and react swiftly to outbreaks e.g. Qld which has now beaten back Delta at least 3 times iirc.
4. Remember how things have been managed (e.g. quarantine facilities, vaccine acquisition, responses to outbreaks, etc) and vote accordingly.
  #34  
Old 27-09-2021, 11:36 AM
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So excited that we're getting out probably early October.
  #35  
Old 27-09-2021, 12:01 PM
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I can’t be too excited about COVID still in our community after lockdown eases and the unknown and unpredictable nature of this insidious virus but however I am relieved and grateful its spread has been retarded due to measures that are working including the big one “vaccination”.
I feel for parents with babies and young kids ( like my kids ) and the frail and elderly being locked down. It has really been tough for them.
I’m being optimistic but on the side of caution once restrictions are progressively eased later in October , November and December
We are by no means out of the woods yet , not for a long while yet
Keep aware and vigilant but not paranoid about it
This ugly thing is going to be with us for a long time ... we just have to manage to live with it around us
Stay safe and healthy
Cheers
  #36  
Old 27-09-2021, 12:01 PM
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While I understand your excitement Marc, I’m really struggling to be excited about swapping what we have over here fir what you have over there.

I get that we have to move forward at some stage, but we do have it pretty good over here from many points of view.

Just my 2c



Quote:
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So excited that we're getting out probably early October.
  #37  
Old 27-09-2021, 12:25 PM
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Yep, I would feel pretty reluctant to open up to us if I were you too.


Interesting to note in relation to flu, there have been far fewer cases this year, precisely because of the covid measures in place, as one would expect.



But given that we flubbed the possibility of eradication, I'm looking forward to things opening up again too, at least in Victoria. I feel a lot better now the vaccine program is starting to gather steam. Whether our friends in WA will welcome us another matter. I hope they do - they have by far the best reef.



Markus
  #38  
Old 27-09-2021, 12:33 PM
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Regards the differences between NSW, Vic (And now the ACT) and the rest of Australia.

I reckon NSW got where it did due to an apparent belief in the spin that lockdowns were a symptom mostly of Victorian incompetence (Meaning that there was no need to heed the lessons learned here last year) and that they really were the "Gold Standard" for hotel quarantine and contact tracing and that those would be enough to see them through. Add in a dose of good luck finally running out and the rest speaks for itself.

This time around in Vic, it is pretty well known that the outbreak seeded from NSW, add in people who are well and truly over it and not bothering with the restrictions much (I am in an essential services job so I have been out and about to a degree and I reckon mask use has dropped to about 2/3 of the people I see. All you usually have to do to see someone go in to a shop without checking in, is watch a couple of people go in to a shop!) once you add in a lack of good luck, well here we go again.

The ACT was more or less inevitable when surrounded by an outbreak in NSW.

The rest of the country so far has still had good luck and I hope that it continues. We have gone from the NSW government playing whack a mole on a laggy screen so they seemed to perpetually let it get away in an area before tightening restrictions in just that area, to the vaccine program playing whack a mole by sending extra supplies out of limited stocks to wherever is deepest in the hole this month.

I really hope the rest of Aus just gets to do vaccinations with the sense of urgency that it will help keep them out of a situation that is warm and brown rather than having to choose between mass vaccinations as fast as they can possibly be delivered, long term lockdown, or "Let it rip"
  #39  
Old 27-09-2021, 12:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LewisM View Post
People have short-term memories, especially the media (sensationalism for sure). Here's a few from the past decade, showing flu pandemics in Australia and globally are nothing new.


ABS data 2017 flu deaths: https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@...%20influenza~5


(as a comparison, current toll after 1.5 years: https://www.health.gov.au/news/healt...and-statistics and https://covidlive.com.au/report/deaths - less than 2017 flu season considering this data is covers additional months)



NSW health department, 2016: https://www.slhd.nsw.gov.au/Populati...eport_2016.pdf


SMH Sydney report 2018: https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/...30-p522oa.html


Aussie Flu epidemic: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-...ts-say/9319372

Take the precautions,stay home if sick and get your shots....and don't live in abject fear. Australia as a whole is doing incredibly well despite the ineptitude of several politicians (not naming names ) - our fatalities are not even a chip off the European or US numbers
\
Thanks Lewis. In our area are a number of Doctor who refuse getting vaccinated. I hitchhike a lift with one GP doctor who when I asked if she is getting vaccinated, said "I am still researching it." In Hanover 2/3 of the medical doctors and there staff refused to get vaccinated.

I got banned from the men's shed where I was a member because i am not vaccinated. Some say do not listen to what youtube & social media tells you. But the one I listen to was a Professor of Zoology, head of the department. PHD in Comparative Physiology, who taught immunology to Medical Students at his university.
  #40  
Old 27-09-2021, 12:45 PM
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You shouldn't be thanking Lewis, he is urging us to get our shots, which is contrary to your view.
raymo

Last edited by raymo; 27-09-2021 at 12:46 PM. Reason: more text
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